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Above the Fold

Hope, Statistics and the Overtreatment of Cancer

flying cadeuciiWhen diagnosed with abdominal mesothelioma, a rare cancer with a blighted future, evolutionary biologist and writer, Stephen Jay Gould, turned his attention to the statistics; specifically, the central tendency of survival with the tumor. The central tendency – mean (average), median and mode – project like skyscrapers in a populated city and are the summary statements of a statistical distribution.

The “average” is both meaningful and meaningless. The average utility of average is zero. Consider a gamble – fair coin toss where you get $50 if it lands heads and lose $50 if it lands tails. The average (net) gains of this coin toss, if the coin is thrown hundreds of time, is zero.  But no one gets nothing – you either get $50 or lose $50. The average is twice wrong – it over estimates for some and under estimates for others. But the average of this gamble has important information. It helps you decide if you could profit from making people play this gamble – you wouldn’t profit unless you charged a small fee to play the gamble.

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The Illness of Work Incapacity

Nortin HadlerEtiology, pathogenesis and translational science beat drums to which modern medicine marches – with escalating cadence. Yes, there is cacophony on occasion and missteps, but we all wait for the next insight to trigger a wave of enthusiasm at the bench and beyond. “Disease” is no longer an elusive monster in the swamp of ignorance; “disease” is prey. It can be defined, parsed, deduced, and sometimes defeated.

Little of this pertains to “health.” Health does not objectify itself. Nor is it simply the absence of disease. Health has temporal and geographic dimensions. Health is inseparable from the context in which it is experienced. Health has a narrative laced with peculiar, often idiosyncratic idioms.  Furthermore, there is a crucial difference between the health of a person and the health of the people.

Science has limitations when it comes to studying health. For one, the studying becomes a component of the experience of health. Nonetheless, we have accumulated a great deal of substantive information that serves to define the boundaries of healthfulness and offers options with salutary potential. Much of this reflects a century of considering the personal ramifications of gainful employment. Much of this falls under the purview of occupational medicine and should be a source of pride.

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Oh, Those Evil Law Suits!

flying cadeuciiMy wife of 47 years likes to tell of her travails after having married me.  She claims she had no inkling that I would specialize in despised career choices.  Right after we were married, I served as an infantry airborne officer in Viet Nam, a then despised profession.  Then I became a trial lawyer.  A very despised profession.  And then in 2004, I became the CEO of a health insurer,  the pinnacle of my career in despised professions.  At one point she stopped reading the Providence Journal and listening to local talk radio.  When asked if she were my wife, she’d often reply, “Why do you want to know?”

So I have some perspective on emotional reactions of people in varied contexts.  Here we will discuss the hyper-emotionalism that lawsuits engender, because they indeed cause people to act in ways that are confounding.  Of course, an individual plaintiff in a medical malpractice lawsuit is hyper-emotionally involved.  But more to the point of this article, so is the defendant physician.

Why is that?  For the plaintiff, that’s easy to understand.  They believe (or were convinced) that the physician harmed them through negligent conduct, and that they should be compensated (and perhaps apologized to).  Their world often starts to revolve around the lawsuit as if nothing else mattered.  It consumes them, and the outcome is rarely satisfying.

The physician reacts almost equally emotionally when sued.  While that is counterproductive, they typically can’t help themselves because it is a direct and personal attack going to the heart of who and what they are professionally and as human beings.  Heavy stuff.

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Proposed Drug and Device Laws Should Be Pushed to 2017

flying cadeuciiSenate leaders now say they won’t consider companion legislation to the House-passed 21st Century Cures Act until September, after months of delay.  Lawmakers would then have to reconcile the differing House and Senate versions, presumably by year’s end during a lame-duck Congress.

We believe the summer delay is a good thing, and that Congress should actually extend consideration of the complex legislation into 2017 when must-pass FDA funding through industry user-fees will be on the congressional calendar.   That way, lawmakers can debate the implications of the proposed bills in the context of the resources FDA needs.

Why further delay?  Because the legislation—which makes substantial changes to the way the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves drugs and devices—is flawed.  As currently crafted, it lowers standards for drug and device approvals and safety, and risks adding to the rising cost of prescription drugs.
The ostensible rationale for the legislation—being pushed by drug and device companies—is that the FDA stifles innovation and advances in treatment by approving drugs and devices too slowly compared with other countries.

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From Takeoff to Touchdown, It’s About Engaging the Patient

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Screen Shot 2016-07-16 at 12.50.25 PMIn my personal time away from my role at Deloitte, I am a private pilot and passionate volunteer for a charity that facilitates free air transportation for children and adults with medical conditions who need to get to treatment far from home.  In my interactions with these patients I hear how important communication is to their well-being. I also hear how outreach from life sciences companies enables improvements in their lives and puts them back at the center of the health ecosystem.

It is not controversial to say that patients must be at the center of the current and the future healthcare ecosystem; however, it may be to admit that today they are not well served by this ecosystem. The need to enable and effectively support care coordination across health care professionals (HCPs), providers, and other care team members to drive effective and appropriate use of pharmaceutical products is something I hear my clients in health care asking for on a daily basis. My clients ask for strategies that will enable them to build loyalty through extraordinary execution of their patient engagement programs, and through that loyalty drive adherence and better health outcomes. This ability to deliver consistent, high-quality, reliable service across all channels of engagement is a game changer. Recently Deloitte Consulting leaders discussed this subject on a webinar for our clients.

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Risk-Factor Based-Medicine and Its Discontents

Screen Shot 2016-07-12 at 12.02.36 PMIf concepts could get awards, then “risk factor” would surely be a Nobel prize winner.  Barely over 50 years of age, it enjoys such an important place in medicine that I suspect most of us doctors could hardly imagine practicing without it.  Yet, clearly, the concept is not native to our profession nor is its success entirely justified.

A few years ago, on the occasion of the risk factor’s fiftieth anniversary, my colleague Herb Fred and I published an editorial highlighting some of the problem with the use of this concept.  I will summarize here some of those points.

The risk factor concept was developed in the first decades of the twentieth century from within the life insurance industry as it began to systematically apply statistical methods in order to optimize actuarial predictions.  The idea was to identify which baseline characteristics held by individuals would correlate with future risk of death.

The Framingham investigators imported this idea into the public health sphere and introduced the term risk factor in the medical literature in 1961.  From then on, the concept and term have enjoyed an unmitigated success.

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So Much Talk, So Little Walk on Quality

Ceci ConnollyQuality is all the rage in health care these days. It rolls off the presidential tongue and is at the heart of robust targets set by  Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell. (No less than half of all Medicare payments to be quality based by the end of 2018!)

“We’re moving Medicare toward a payment model that rewards quality of care instead of quantity of care,” President Obama declared at a March 2015 summit dedicated to alternative payment models that move away from volume-based, fee-for-service payment

Industry is on the rhetorical bandwagon too. A quick search for the word quality on THCB turns up 277 entries – including “Zen and the Quest for Quality,” “An F for Quality” and the very earliest entry dated Aug. 18, 2003, “Performance-based pay in health care?”

Don’t get me wrong.  We at the Alliance of Community Health Plans (ACHP) were into quality way before quality was cool. (We were there at the creation of today’s HEDIS quality measures.)  So perhaps that’s why it’s a little disheartening to see policymakers slow to match the speeches  with action by fixing a glitch in the pay-for-quality movement.

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Dear Mr. Slavitt, Please Come Visit My Office

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Andy, if you want to fix primary care you must do some field research.  Come spend one day, or even a week at my office or another small primary care physicians’ office.  You need to see what we do on a daily basis and actually understand the view from a small practice perspective. This knowledge deficit is at the core of CMS’s problem.  You cannot repair what you do not comprehend.

Once you understand what we are capable of doing, how we do it, and how it actually SAVES money in the long run, while still providing high quality, then you are ready to tackle Focusing on Primary Care for Better Health.  The bottom line:  you must pay us more for what we are doing if you want to increase our overhead expenses.  Tasking us with additional administrative burden in order to earn extra money is not actually paying us any more for our work.  We would be working harder, not smarter.  Do you understand that?

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Don’t Let Zika Stop the Olympics

Ashish JhaAn expert panel convened by the World Health Organization just declared that there is no scientific basis for canceling, postponing or moving the 28th Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in August or the Paralympics in September because of the Zika outbreak. While many of us experts have expressed concerns about how the WHO handled Ebola and other outbreaks, this time the WHO got it right.

There are ample reasons for alarm: The Zika virus continues to spread in Brazil. Zika infection during pregnancy can have devastating effects on developing fetuses, leading to severe brain damage. The risk is so substantial that the WHO has called the Zika outbreak and its effects on pregnant women a public health emergency of international concern. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises pregnant women to avoid traveling to Zika-affected areas if possible.

No wonder, then, that more than 200 medical ethicists and other experts penned an open letter to the WHO, calling for the Olympics to be moved or delayed. They contend that approximately 500,000 people flying into Rio to participate in or watch the Olympic Games would accelerate the spread of the disease as these individuals returned home, leading to a worldwide Zika outbreak.

These arguments seem compelling on the surface, but they don’t stand up to scrutiny.

First, several new studies estimate an exceedingly low risk of travelers getting Zika. One study suggests that there may be as few as 15 new cases as a result of the Games. And because most people infected with Zika suffer only mild symptoms (the real risk is to pregnant women and their babies), these few infections are unlikely to pose a substantial health threat. August and September are cool months in Brazil, when mosquitoes are far less active. Coupled with efforts to keep mosquitoes under control around Olympic venues, that should mean relatively few new infections.

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Focusing on Primary Care for Better Health

Screen Shot 2016-07-07 at 2.30.28 PMIn the United States, we have historically invested far more in treating sickness than we do in maintaining health. The result of this imbalance is not only poorer health, but more money spent in institutions, hospitals, and nursing homes.

The road to a better health care system means correcting this imbalance. We should reinvest in what we value — primary care — as a practice, as a profession, and as an abundant resource for patients. In recent years, we have begun taking a number of meaningful steps to begin this reinvestment process. Today, we are proposing significant actions to improve how we pay primary care physicians, mental health specialists, geriatricians, and other clinicians. By better valuing primary care and care coordination, we help beneficiaries access the services they need to stay well. In addition to keeping people healthy, health care costs are lower when people have a primary care provider and team of doctors and clinicians overseeing and coordinating their care.

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