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Start Counting Your Days

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By KIM BELLARD

Probably the last thing the world needs is to hear from me about AI’s existential threat, but, really, what else is there to talk about right now?

For anyone who has not been following the current furor, the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back came last week when Jacob Coxon, a researcher at AI leader Anthropic, announced he was leaving the company — after having left OpenAI for it earlier this year due to Anthropic’s better model-safety efforts. In a post on X, he warned:

I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.

AI systems, he fears, “will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources.” Insiders, he says, “earnestly believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade.”

Scared yet?

Others quickly chimed in. Evan Hubinger , a team leader at Anthropic, posted “AI could kill all humans … I personally think it is >10% within the next decade.”  Others put the risk even higher. By the end of the week Dario Anodei, founder and CEO of Anthropic, had written a long plea for private industry and government to quickly act together to “pace the industry.”

“We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models,” he urged. “Progress will still seem fast, and we must make wise use of the time we gain.”

OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Space X/X/Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and former Google DeepMind Dennis Hassabis quickly signaled their support.  

We also heard more about the kind of risks AI might pose. Anthropic released a report about how it detected and countered possible AI use to create bioweapons, detailing five such efforts. That’s just the tip of the iceberg: “Recently, we swept 30 days of activity associated with adversarial state institutions and found roughly 35 distinct research efforts, most of them ordinary civilian science, but some with notable dual-use potential.”

And it turns out that this summer’s rogue AI hack of Hugging Face was both scarier than we realized and only one of several such actions. The Wall Street Journal detailed several such efforts, from multiple AI companies. AI agents escaped walled-off environments, coordinated with other AI agents (up to 3,700 in one case), and tried to cover their tracks from humans.

We’re not nearing the point when AI can act on its own to achieve its purposes; we are there. And protecting humans may not necessarily be those purposes.

The big fear is that AI is now at the point of “recursive self-improvement,” taking humans out of the loop in training and upgrading it. If you thought artificial general intelligence (AGI) was scary, RGI puts its rate and scope of improvement on steroids.  “It’s hard to overstate how dangerous speeding towards RSI is,” said Jasmine Wang, an OpenAI researcher.  

We don’t let private industry develop nuclear or biochemical weapons, and we’re at a point with AI that should give the same kind of concern. Laissez-faire is no longer an option.

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Universal Coverage Might Be Nice, but an AI Tax Is Necessary

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By KIM BELLARD

I was amused – oh, I should be polite and say “interested” — to see a new study, led by researchers from Yale School of Public Medicine, about the benefits of a universal single payor health system. It concluded that we could save 100,000 lives annually and save some 1.04 trillion each year – some 20% of our health care spending. What’s not to like? I’m sure Bernie Sanders is already drafting the bill.

The savings come from five sources: using Medicare payment rates for all providers, using “international reference pricing” for pharmaceuticals, reducing administrative costs to Medicare’s levels, reducing fraudulent billing (“consistent with the experience of other single-payer transitions”), and reducing emergency room visits and hospitalizations due to improved access to primary care.  Good goals, all.

Steffie Woolhandler and David Himmelstein, among others, have been making these or similar arguments for decades, and they are not without merit. It is shameful that we don’t have universal coverage. It is distressing how much money we spend on healthcare. It is embarrassing that we spend so much money on administration.  It is maddening that so many people don’t get the care they need, get the wrong care, or get their care in the wrong places/at the wrong times.

We could do better, we should do better, but, if anything, we’re doing worse: more people are losing coverage, more providers are going out of business, our rates of chronic (and some infectious diseases) are going up, and we’re dying sooner.

I want to quickly point out some of the problems with the proposed sources of savings, then discuss other courses of action that might lead to these or even better outcomes.

  • Medicare payment rates: yes, a lot of money could be saved by using Medicare payment rates, but I doubt you would find many providers who would say they could survive. They make their money on private insurance rates, are lucky to break even on Medicare rates, and lose money on Medicaid. This one is not going to happen.
  • International pharmaceutical reference pricing: first, I’m not sure such a thing exists. It is true that drug prices are typically lower in other countries. Both President Biden and President Trump seized upon this, with some signs of modest success. But, as with the Medicare pricing, it would be a shock to the pharmaceutical industry to have prices slashed across the board, wiping out trillions of dollars of value and, oh-by-the-way, eventually reducing investments on new and better prescriptions.
  • Administrative costs: as a percentage of spending, Medicare’s administrative costs are lower than private insurance, but that is partly due to Medicare spending per capita being so much higher. Also, costs incurred by other agencies – e.g., Social Security or the IRS – are not always counted. But certainly the complexities of so many plan designs by so many health insurers while tracking the current eligibility of everyone is a cost that is much higher than it should be.
  • Reducing fraudulent billing: I mean, really: do people really think that Medicare does a better job of reducing fraudulent billing than United Healthcare or Anthem, much less than other countries?
  • More primary care: reducing emergency room visits and hospitalizations has been the goal of countless private health insurance efforts, such as disease management or chronic health programs, and the track record has generally been underwhelming. But the real problem is – where are we going to get all the primary care physicians to handle all the underserved people?  

So, much as I agree with the goals, count me a skeptic that single payor is going to magically make everything better.

Here’s where I inevitably turn to AI.

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Work Requirements Target the Wrong People

By KIM BELLARD

One of the key “cost savings” in last years’ Big, Beautiful Bill were work requirements imposed on most working aged beneficiaries in SNAP and/or Medicaid, despite the fact that the few times such requirements had been tried showed they were costly to implement and operate and don’t do much to increase work participation, although they are effective at getting beneficiaries to lose benefits. Republicans who pushed these requirements were infuriated at the thought that some able-bodied people – stereotypically young men – were sitting around on their couches playing video games while benefiting from the programs, despite those programs’ complex administrative burdens and meagre benefits.

A new GAO report reminds us that the people coasting off SNAP and Medicaid were not so much the beneficiaries but rather employers, especially large employers. And the names of the most likely employers won’t come as a big surprise.

The report — Federal Social Safety Net Programs: Millions of Workers, Including Many Employed by Large Employers, Continue to Rely on Medicaid and SNAP – was requested by Senator Bernie Sanders, in his role as Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and is a follow-up to a similar 2020 report. It focused on 11 states: Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington.

The top-lines are that working aged beneficiaries in both programs were, in fact, not only likely to already be working—mostly full-time — but also at participation rates higher than working aged people not on the programs, and that companies like Amazon and Walmart were among the largest employers of these beneficiaries.

The key change in employment in these populations has been the explosion of gig workers in the app-based food delivery and ride sharing sectors. Workers at Amazon on these programs also tripled since the prior report. Walmart remains the employer with the largest number of these workers who receive Medicaid, but has slipped to second to ride sharing gig workers receiving SNAP. McDonalds and Dollar General round out the top five employers.  

Now, these are among the largest employers generally, but, gosh, doesn’t it gall you that have so many of their workers who still need SNAP and/or Medicaid?  It’s not like they’re not making money, it’s not that their CEOs and other executives aren’t raking in tens of millions of dollars, but they sure are reluctant to pay federal income taxes. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that, as a result of The Big, Beautiful Bill, Amazon’s federal income taxes dropped from $9b to $1.2b in 2025, while profits soared 44.5% to $90b. Walmart looks like a sucker for paying $6b in 2025, an effective tax rate of about 23%.

An Amazon spokesperson defended its practices in a response to The Washington Post: “Amazon pay is among the best in the industry, regular full-time employees have access to health care from their first day … and 74% of our regular full-time employees are enrolled in an Amazon health insurance plan, well above the 65% private sector take-up rate for full-time workers.”

So, if all those employees have access to coverage from their first day and get among the best pay in the industry, why are any on SNAP or Medicaid?  And couldn’t you at least pay more than 1.3% on federal taxes?

Bernie, of course, was outraged:

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Value Is in the Eye of the Beholder

By KIM BELLARD

The most (unintentionally) amusing story I read this week was Tim Higgin’s Wall Street Journal article Alex Karp Is Saying What Every Angry CEO Is Thinking About AI. Dr. Karp (yes, he has a Ph.D.), co-founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies, is upset about how AI companies are using relationships with their business customers to harvest data and business insights from those customers. “Something has gone completely wrong,” he fumed.

Now, this is Palantir, mind you; it may not have invented surveillance capitalism but it might have perfected it. It has become essential to government and large corporations across the world. Most of us are aware of how tech companies like Meta or Google give us “free” services that exist primarily to collect more data on us, which they then use to target ads to us, but Palantir’s data collection and analysis operate at a level we often don’t recognize.  But make no mistake; it is using our data, and not necessarily in our best interests.

Mr. Higgins quotes former White House AI czar David Sacks in support of Dr. Karp’s concerns:

Anthropic has launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, and of course Claude Code—each expanding into categories previously served by companies building on top of their models. The pattern is consistent: Watch where value is being created, then move in directly. Dominate the model layer, then use that position to capture the most lucrative verticals.

So it is delicious irony that Dr. Karp and others are finding themselves at the wrong end of the power inequality with their data.

I find myself thinking about healthcare when I think above this new wave of data collectors/ synthesizers. It seems pretty clear that the AI companies aren’t going anywhere, and are expected to reshape most industries, including healthcare. Lots has been written about AI’s use in healthcare, including by me. It is both inevitable and, in many cases, desirable. Now this issue of AI’s insatiable appetite for data makes me wonder if we’re looking at things wrong.

I’ve worked in healthcare for longer than I care to admit, and at no point did people not complain that healthcare in general, and health insurance in particular, was too expensive. And yet, costs have kept rising. We’re closing in on $6 trillion in U.S. healthcare expenditures. No matter what kind of health insurance you have – large employer, small employer, ACA Marketplace, Medicare Advantage, even Medicare Supplements for traditional Medicare – your premiums (and/or out-of-pocket costs) are likely going up at rates we haven’t seen in years.

Two well known facts about rising costs are, one, that it is not so much we’re using too many services as it is that Americans pay way higher prices for healthcare than in most countries, and, two, that a relatively small percentage of people account for the vast majority of healthcare spending. The latter has an insidious effect on health insurance premiums, as people with fewer expenses are less likely to have or keep health insurance, making premiums for the remaining people higher. Nobody wants to pay for the people who use a lot of health care, but they want other people to help pay if they end up being one of those people. It’s a conundrum.

Now, optimists hope that AI can do a better job of identifying all the wasted, unnecessary, or inappropriate care we use – estimated as much as one-third – and help make administration more efficient; current levels are estimated as 15-30% of spending. Good goals, both of them, and it is entirely plausible that AI can help with both. But it would still remain that sick people are the “problem” with our health care spending and health insurance premiums, and I want to propose a different way of looking at them.

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Life Not As We Know It

By KIM BELLARD

Well, let’s see. Last week much of the U.S. and parts of Europe were under a crippling heat dome. The U.S. celebrated its 250th birthday. And there’s something called the World Cup going on, for those of you who care about such things. But, I mean, really, the news of the week? SpudCell.

OK, maybe you missed that one. If you are not a fan of science, or of synthetic biology in particular, news about it might not have shown up in your feeds, or perhaps you thought it was another ploy by the Potato Association of America to get you to buy even more potatoes. SpudCell is something truly new: “the world’s first synthetic cell with a complete life cycle, built entirely from non-living chemical components.”

Take a minute to take that description in.

“SpudCell performs the behaviors often used to tell the living from the inert — it feeds, grows, replicates its genome, divides and undergoes selection — yet it is far simpler than any natural cell and was assembled, part by part, by hand,” the project researchers wrote in a statement.

It was designed and built by researchers at the University of Minnesota, announced last week along with a preprint of their paper.The team was led by Professor Kate Adamala, and the name is either due to its supposed resemblance to a potato or it’s a play on “Sputnik.”

“This is likely the most exciting project I’ve ever worked on,” said Professor Adamala. “We’ve replicated in chemistry what only used to be possible in biology: the complete set of behaviors of a cell. It proves that the most fundamental functions of life, like growth and replication, do not need a mysterious magical spark.”

Scientists have been working for decades on stripping away genetic material from living cells to try to find the minimum necessary for life, but Professor Adamala and her team went the other way, gradually building up genetic material until it started behaving in ways we’d expect cells to.

The impressive thing is that the team engineered everything SpudCell does. As The Economist put it: “Everything the resulting cells do, they do because of molecules that Dr Adamala’s team put there. That leaves no room for mysteries.” That’s not true when researchers start with living cells.

Drew Endy, a synthetic biologist at Stanford University, told Carl Zimmer of The New York Times, “It’s a cell that was built, not born. It’s constructed, but it does what cells do.”

SpudCell is very basic.

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Oceans, Away

By KIM BELLARD

It probably didn’t show up on your calendar, but Monday was World Ocean Day. It’s a day meant to catalyze “collective action for a healthy ocean and a stable climate,” and has been around since 2002 (although the U.N. didn’t officially recognize it until 2008). Its website claims a network of over 2,000 organizations, in 180 countries.

I wish we had more to celebrate.

Many have recognized the irony of humans calling our planet “Earth,” when, in fact, 71% of its surface is covered with water. Even more amazing, oceans account for 99% of the biosphere. We come from the ocean and still owe much of our existence to it.

Unfortunately, these are not good times for oceans, and we’re to blame. The most recent World Ocean Assessment from the U.N. highlights:

  • The ocean matters to everyone, everywhere;
  • The ocean is under intensifying stress;
  • Climate change is transforming conditions;
  • Biodiversity is declining across nearly every marine habitat;
  • Pollution is widespread and increasing;
  • Ocean food systems are threatened.

The report concludes: “The coming decade is decisive: without rapid, coordinated global action, ocean health will continue to decline, threatening climate stability, biodiversity resilience, food security, livelihoods and the wellbeing of billions.”

I think about this in light of last month’s announcement by the National Science Foundation that it was “descoping” the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) Major Facility, beginning next week. That’s a $368 million deep-ocean observation system “that delivers real-time data from more than 900 instruments to address critical science questions regarding the world’s oceans.” Some 900 instruments will be removed, in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

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The Canaries Are All Dead

By KIM BELLARD

MIT is, most people would admit, a pretty good school.  Even those who don’t know a lot about universities probably associate MIT with science, engineering, and math, and in fact, it is one of the leading universities in the world for those (and other) areas. E.g., the QS World University Rankings have named it the top university in the world the last 14 years, USN&WR Global Universities Ranking has it #2, as does The Times Higher Education World University Rankings. There have been over 100 Nobel Laureate recipients associated with MIT. If you meet a Harvard grad you might think, oh, they may not actually be all that smart – they could be just a legacy admission, but if you meet an MIT grad you probably do expect that they must be smart, especially since MIT does not have legacy admissions. Even President Trump, who rails against “elite universities” and who has slashed science funding in his second administration (more on that later), can’t help but rave about his smart uncle who taught at MIT.

So when the President of MIT warns about reductions in research funding and in graduate school admissions, we’re not talking about the proverbial canaries in the coal mine dying. We’re talking about miners going down.  

In a video message last week, MIT President Sally Kornbluth warned of some startling losses: over 20% drops in federally funded research, in new federal research awards, and in graduate student enrollment. Overall, the school’s research enterprise has shrunk 10% in the last year.

Gulp.

“That is a striking loss for one of the most influential and productive research communities in the world,“ Dr. Kornbluth said. She added:

The fact is that we’re looking at a real drop in research being done by the people of MIT. It’s a loss of momentum for faculty and students and frankly, it’s a loss for the nation. When you shrink the pipeline of basic discovery research, you choke off the flow of future solutions, innovations, and cures, and you shrink the supply of future scientists.

Make no mistake: although MIT itself may be an outlier, what is happening to it is not. Ted Mitchell, president of the American Council on Education, told The Washington Post: “This is the first of many of these kinds of alarms that will be ringing,” Brendan Cantwell, a professor of higher education at Michigan State University, also told WaPo that if MIT is scaling back how it does research, that means universities across the country should be thinking about scaling back and adjusting. The ripple effects will go far and wide, and will have bigger impacts than we realize.

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Officers Eat Last

By KIM BELLARD

A New York Times interview with Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D – Mass) by Bret Stephens caught my attention. I am somewhat familiar with Mr. Stephens from his various pieces in NYT; he is definitely a conservative, but in the old, pre-MAGA sense where it meant you worried about spending but you didn’t hate people who weren’t like you. Rep. Auchincloss, on the other hand, was unfamiliar to me, but the headline of the interview – The Democrat Who Makes Me Listen – proved apt.

For me, the final line the interview summed everything up. Rep. Auchincloss is a Marine veteran, having served in Afghanistan. Mr. Stephens asked: “Final question. If there is one thing you learned in the Marine Corps which every American should know, what is it?” Rep. Auchincloss’s reply was succinct, to the point, and highly instructive: “Officers eat last.”

“Officers eat last” – wow. That’s a philosophy I can buy into. That’s a credo I hope I can live up to. That’s a slogan for a political movement I could get behind.

Of course, I’m not just talking about literally only Marine officers, and I’m not just talking about eating. I’m sure Rep. Auchincloss intended that it was a life lesson that should be applied broadly. I.e., people in authority should make sure the people they are responsible for get taken care of before they take care of themselves. I don’t think that attitude is solely responsible for the esteemed Marine esprit de corps, but it’s got to be part of it.

The trouble is, we don’t see much of that attitude in the rest of America. When Congress failed to pass a budget and millions of federal workers went without paychecks, they (and their staffs) kept getting paid. When the White House went slashing various budgets, it didn’t eliminate White House jobs.

If you want to keep your blood pressure under control, don’t even ask how generous the Congressional retirement package is. Suffice it to say that, if you are one of the few workers who still qualify for a defined benefit pension, it is almost certainly less than theirs. Don’t get me started on how members of Congress seem to get richer – a lot richer – while in office, possibly due to insider trading loopholes.

According to Gallup, only 10% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, with 86% disapproving, but they don’t care. They get paid anyway, and most House seats aren’t competitive, so most incumbents are in little danger of getting voted out.

This is no “officers eat last.”

It’s not just politicians.

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It’s Got a Good Beat and You Can Kill It

By KIM BELLARD

Most of us can identify dogs from cats just by the sounds they make. We could probably even separate a dog’s bark from a wolf’s howl. If you are a nature lover, you might be able to identify different species of birds by their calls.  If you are a cetologist, you might be able to separate the vocalizations whales make versus those dolphins make. Across the animal world, we’ve learned the different sounds that different species make, which has been useful in our survival.

But did you ever wonder if you can identify, say, e coli from other bacteria?

It turns out that you can, thanks to research at Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) in the Netherlands. Four years ago, they showed that bacteria made noise, which was, in itself, a startling finding (admit it: would you have ever guessed that?). They used a thin layer of graphene to create a graphene “drum” small enough to fit a single bacterium. Team member Cees Dekker observed: “What we saw was striking! When a single bacterium adheres to the surface of a graphene drum, it generates random oscillations with amplitudes as low as a few nanometers that we could detect. We could hear the sound of a single bacterium!”

The team used this finding to accomplish an important purpose: to find out if bacteria were resistant to specific antibiotics. If an antibiotic was applied and the sound continued; it hadn’t worked. If the sounds stopped, the bacteria had been killed.

The team wasted no time in creating a start-up – SoundCell – to commercialize the finding. It promised to identify the “right” antibiotic in one hour, rather than subjecting patients to rounds of different antibiotics in search of one the bacteria wasn’t resistant to.

The team isn’t resting on their laurels. Some of them got to wondering, huh, I wonder if different bacteria make different sounds. And, their latest research shows, not only do they but, through machine learning, those different species can be distinguished. Team lead Farbod Alijani says. “With this new study, we take a significant leap forward: we show that each bacterial species has its own nanomotion signature.”

Mind. Blown.

The researchers focused on three bacteria that are common in hospital settings: E. coli, S. aureus (which causes staph infections) and K. pneumoniae (which causes pneumonia). They tested two different machine learning models; one correctly classified the bacteria 87% of the time, and the other 88% of the time.

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Give That 1337 a Job!

By KIM BELLARD

Chances are someone in your family is a gamer. Maybe you are a gamer yourself. After all, somewhere between two-thirds and three-fourths of Americans play video games, and if you just looked at young men, it’d be closer to 100%. Grumpy older people don’t get it, complaining that gaming is just a waste of time, but gamers believe it helps with their problem solving (although at a cost of sleep).

Well, the good news is that if you are, indeed, a gamer, the Federal Aviation Authority (F.A.A.) is looking for you.

Last Friday Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced the F.A.A.’s campaign to attract “the next generation of air traffic controllers,” It is looking for people “who possess useful skills that are transferable to a career in air traffic control, including:

  • Demonstrated high cognitive functions
  • Multitasking
  • Spatial awareness
  • Strategy and problem-solving”

By all that, they mean gamers. The announcement goes on to add: “…this effort is focused on reaching talented young people pursuing alternative career paths, many of whom are active in gaming. Feedback from controller exit interviews reinforces this, with several controllers pointing to gaming as an influence on their ability to think quickly, stay focused, and manage complexity.”

There’s a slick YouTube ad too.

“When you bring on someone who has gaming experience, particularly with air traffic control, they have an edge up,” Michael O’Donnell, an aerospace consultant who previously worked as a senior F.A.A. official focused on air traffic safety, told Karoun Demirjian of The New York Times. “They’re coming in with a skill set. But it doesn’t replace aptitude, or discipline, or decision making under pressure.”

Surprisingly, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association supports the effort, with its president Nick Daniels telling BBC:: “Our union welcomes innovative approaches to expanding the candidate pool, including outreach to individuals with high-level aptitude skills such as gamers, so long as all pathways maintain the rigorous standards required of this safety-critical profession.”

To be fair, both the F.A.A. and the NATCA probably would welcome anything that might drive people to apply. The F.A.A. only has about 75% of the target number of controllers, leaving it several thousand short. Individual airports may be staffed even lower, as might certain times of day. It’s not a new problem and it is not a problem that is going to be quickly fixed; it is not as though today you can play a video game and tomorrow you can be an air traffic controller. There is definitely a learning curve.

It also doesn’t help that air traffic controllers aren’t usually paid during government shutdowns, which Congress seems to increasingly allow. “The failure to pay air traffic controllers for 44 days created uncertainty, drove many experienced controllers out of the profession and harmed the recruitment pipeline,” a spokesperson from the Department of Transportation told CBS News in November.    

Nor does it help that air traffic controllers rely on technology that is likely to be older than they are. The F.A.A. is trying, for example, to replace its outdated radar system, but NBC reports: “The FAA has been spending most of its $3 billion equipment budget just maintaining the fragile old system that still relies on floppy discs in places. Some of the equipment is old and isn’t manufactured anymore, so the FAA sometimes has to search for spare parts on eBay.”

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Chair Jennifer Homendy complained: “This is 2026. The secretary talks about upgrading our air traffic control system. We have an old air traffic control system. This is why he talks about that. We need to upgrade.” 

I was surprised to learn that gaming might not just be an asset to become an air traffic controller, but also an asset for air traffic controllers. Josh Jennings, a supervisor at the F.A.A.’s air traffic command center in Virginia, told Ms. Demirjian that gaming is both a way for controllers to stay sharp, and as a form of “social currency” among them. “I would say it’s probably tenfold on how fast this new generation is able to pick up on our physical tech, our radar scopes,” he said. Controllers apparently often play video games on their breaks.

In similar approaches to look for unconventional backgrounds, the Marines are looking at dirt bikers to become drone pilots, while Russia is looking at university students for its drone pilots.     

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