A year on from Wellpoint’s ju-jistu move of announcing a 39% rate increase in California, therefore re-invigorating the health care bill and guaranteeing themselves billions in government subsidies, Blue Shield of California, the non-profit rival to Wellpoint’s Anthem Blue Cross, announced a 59% increase! In the annals of THCB, Blue Shield has a mixed record. CEO Bruce Bodaken was a big supporter of the ACA and consistently called for universal coverage, but at the same time the behavior of Blue Shield after the revelations about the insurance recissions was worse than any other insurer. It actually fought much harder for the right to continue them than Wellpoint, Healthnet and the rest. The most recent rate increases also concern the individual market—you know, that segment of the insurance market that Mark Pauly thinks works pretty well.
Blue Shield is saying that the rates really are only a 15% average increase, and that for some individuals they’re getting a delayed increase—in other words they should have been charged more last year—which is where that 59% number comes from. Why are rates going up? Blue Shield put out a handy press release giving its side of the story. Blue Shield is pretty explicit that the extra costs of the abolition of life-time maximums and the addition of kids up to 26 on family policies was only around 4% over 2 years. The big factor was that utilization went up 7%, unit costs (prices) went up 5% and the rest of the increase (3%) is due to lower overall out of pocket costs relative to what the insurer was covering (because of overall cost increases).
Translated into “where the money went,” hospital payments went up 15%, drugs up 12% and doctor payments went up 9%. In addition, although Blue Shield doesn’t state it, the pooled risk profile of everyone in a particular individual market product gets worse as while they all get charged the same at “entry”, and then more healthy people drop out as prices go up than sick ones. This is the insurance death spiral we used to hear so much about.
However, it’s not just Blue Shield and it’s not just the individual market.