Category: Health Policy

Stick to the Science

Nov 26, 2024

By KIM BELLARD

A year ago I wrote about disturbing news from the Pew Research Center that trust in science, and in scientists, had fallen since the pandemic. I am slightly relieved to report that a new follow-up study by Pew indicates that trust is up slightly – but still way below where they were pre-pandemic.

Overall, 76% of Americans express fair or a great deal of confidence in scientists to act in the public’s best interests (versus 87% in April 2020). The public is about evenly split about how active a role scientists should take in policy debates – 51% think they should, 48% think they should stick to science. A year ago those numbers were flipped.

I think about all this in the context of the proposed members of President-elect Trump’s health team, whose takes on “science” are often considered out of the mainstream.

Trump surprised many a few months ago when he brought Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into his fold. Over the years, RFK Jr., an environmental lawyer by background, has expressed numerous startling views about health and our healthcare system. According to Jennifer Nuzzo, the director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University, RFK Jr. “is just in a category by himself. R.F.K. Jr. just willfully disregards existing evidence, relies on talking points that have been consistently debunked.”

Nonetheless, Trump vowed: “I’m going to let him go wild on health. I’m going to let him go wild on the food. I’m going to let him go wild on the medicines.” He has now named him as his candidate for Secretary of Health and Human Services.

The team behind RFK Jr. have their own unconventional views. A quick rundown:

The Healthcare Industry Needs a Course Correction

Nov 20, 2024

By STEVEN ZECOLA

The United States healthcare system has failed by any measure.

First, costs are out of control. For example, 17% of the country’s GDP is spent on healthcare. This percentage was less than half that amount in 1980. It is expected to continue growing to 20% by 2032. Seventy-five percent of these costs are attributable to chronic diseases.

Second, notwithstanding the highest percentage of GDP spent on healthcare of the top ten high-income countries, the US has the worst performance outcomes whether measured on life expectancy, preventable mortality through disease management, and even access to care through insurance coverage or other means.

Third, the agency overseeing the healthcare industry is the Department of Health and Human Services. HHS is organized by functions such as Clinical Health Services and Behavioral Health Services rather than organized by disease management. The five strategic imperatives of its 4-year strategic plan do not contain benchmarks for improving the health status of the population, nor concrete steps to achieve the benchmarks. There is no mention of costs.

Fourth, the industry is huge and has many different components from healthcare providers to equipment manufacturers, to researchers, to pharmaceutical companies, to genetic companies, to insurance companies and so on. Over 16 million people are employed in the industry, with 60,000 in HHS alone. At this level of aggregation, leadership and management prowess becomes watered down and there can be no driving force for across-the-board improvements in disease management.

Fifth, the industry spends about $100 billion per year on R&D in pursuit of FDA approvals. The cost of this development translates into more than $2 billion per approved drug. Once approved, the drug effectively gains a barrier against unfettered competition. Independent analysts have estimated the costs of this regulatory scheme vastly exceed the benefits. Yet the FDA holds firm in its approach, given that its primary objective is safety.

Take a deep breath: Trump may not mean that much change–for health care, that is

Nov 18, 2024

By MATTHEW HOLT

At some point I had to crawl out of my hole and put pen to paper on the election debacle that just took place, and what the ensuing lunacy might be like for the health care system. So this is my attempt to do just that.

It’s really hard to understand why Trump won this election or why Harris and the Democrats lost. There was a lot of weirdness going on. Remember that before the vote Harris was generally praised for running a steady campaign, the Democrats had tracked to the right on immigration (trying to pass what IMHO was a horrendous bill ), and Harris kept talking about having a Glock, being a prosecutor and campaigned with a Cheney. The swing states (which vote at a much higher proportion than everyone else) all (with the narrow exception of Pennsylvania) voted for Democratic senators. For President they only went 3% against where they were in 2020. Even weirder was that hundreds of thousands of Trump voters didn’t appear to vote down the ballot at all. Yet nationwide the swing was big enough for Trump to win the popular vote. (If you really want to dig in, Charles Gaba has put together a great spreadsheet)

The simplest explanation is that the teeny middle in American politics voted against the incumbent. And the “middle” is getting teenier. In 1964 Johnson got 61% of the vote. Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984) won with nearly 60% of the vote. Obama’s big 2008 victory was with just 53% of the vote and he won by 7%.

Biden won in 2020 with just over 51% and Trump will end up winning while likely getting just less than 50% of the vote. This isn’t an overwhelming mandate. It’s a small minority of voters switching because they are pissed off with the status quo. This year the bug bear was inflation, which really wasn’t Biden’s fault even though he got the blame. It also appears that a decent slug of Arab-Americans and far left Democrats stayed home or voted for Jill Stein because of Gaza.

And let’s not forget the impact of the Electoral College which reduces turnout outside of swing states (not exclusively). Surely if we had a popular vote in which every vote counts, turnout would be higher, including in the big 2 states that are Dem strongholds (NY & CA).

However, even if you think it’s inconceivable that a majority would vote for Trump because of what happened in 2016 to 2021 (especially on January 6, 2021!), apparently that’s not enough of a disqualifier. He’s going to be President.

So what happens next? Particularly in health care.

My expectation (and hope) is that this is a snake eating its own tail. There are so many repugnant egos circling around Trump that it’s more than likely they’ll turn on each other, and little to nothing gets done. That doesn’t mean nothing will happen.

Mental Health Crisis in Miscarriage–an Unrepresented Patient Population

Nov 15, 2024

By TAMARA MANNS

I walked into the emergency department already knowing the outcome. In these same rooms I had told women having the same symptoms as me, “I am so sorry, there is nothing we can do for a miscarriage”. I handed them the same box of single ply tissues I was now sobbing into, as I handed them a pen to sign their discharge paperwork.

Two weeks after my emergency room discharge, I continued to live life as if nothing happened, returning to work without any healthcare follow-up to address my emotional burden. Luckily, I had established obstetrician (OB) care with the physician who previously delivered my second child. At only nine weeks gestation I had not seen my OB physician yet, but I was able to follow up in the office to talk about my next steps.

After that two-week hospital follow up, I heard from no one.

Due to the environment of the emergency department, women often complain of unprepared providers with ineffective and impersonal delivery of miscarriage diagnosis and discharge education; this lack of emotional support can result in feelings of abandonment, guilt, and self-blame. Due to the psychological impact of pregnancy loss, a standard of care for screening and referral must be implemented at all facilities treating women experiencing miscarriage.

If I had not reached out to my healthcare provider after my miscarriage, I would have continued suffering through an aching depression without help.

Depression, anxiety, and grief are most severe in the first four months after miscarriage. The symptoms decrease in severity throughout the following year. These symptoms may influence future pregnancies by increasing maternal stress and fear, possibly leading to pregnancy complications.

In the United States (US), one in five women suffer with mood and anxiety disorders while pregnant, and up to one-year after delivery.

Will Trump and RFK Jr. Revive His Covid Pandemic Performance?

Nov 14, 2024

By MIKE MAGEE

It has been a collision of past, present and future this week in the wake of Trump’s victory on November 6, 2024. The country, both for and against, has been unusually quiet. It is unclear whether this is in recognition of political exhaustion, or the desire of victors to be “good winners” and no longer “poor losers.”

Who exactly are “the enemy within” remains to be seen. But Trump is fast at work in defining his cabinet and top agency officials. In his first term as President, Trump famously placed himself at the front of the line of scientific experts sowing confusion and chaos in the early Covid response.

His 2024 campaign alliance with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggests health policy remains a strong interest. As his spokesperson suggested, his up-front leadership led to a resounding victory “because they trust his judgement and support his policies, including his promise to Make America Healthy Again alongside well-respected leaders like RFK Jr.”

For those with a memory of Trump’s checkered, and disruptive management of the Covid crisis, it is useful to remind ourselves of those days not long ago, and consider if throwing Bobby Kennedy Jr. in the mix back then would have been helpful.

I have been revisiting the Covid pandemics I have prepared for a 3-session course on “AI and Medicine” at the University of Hartford’s Presidents College. The course includes a number of case studies, notably the multi-prong role of AI in addressing the Covid pandemic as it spun out of control in 2020.

The early Covid timeline reads like this:

America the Schizophrenic

Nov 13, 2024

By KIM BELLARD

I must admit, last week’s election took me by surprise. I knew all the polls predicted a close race, but I kept telling myself that the American I believed in would not elect such a man, again, knowing full well all the things he has said and done – in his personal, professional, and political lives. I was giving us too much credit.

Democrats might tell the public that Wall Street was hitting record highs, that GDP growth was among the best in the world, that unemployment was low, and that inflation was finally back under control, but voters didn’t believe them. For most people, the economy isn’t working.

When two-thirds of voters say the country is on the wrong track (NBC News), when almost three-quarters of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. (Gallop), when 62% of voters think the economy is weak and 48% say their personal financial situation is getting worse (Harvard CAPS/Harris) – well, threats to democracy tomorrow don’t compare to the price of eggs today.

Let’s face it: we are on the wrong road. We’re not on a road that is good for most people. We’re not on a road that is getting us ready for the challenges and opportunities that the 21^st century is bringing/is going to bring us. And we’re kidding ourselves about the America we believe in versus the America we actually live in. Our views about our country are delusional, they’re disorganized thinking, they may even be hallucinations. I.e., they’re schizophrenic.

For example:

Medicare’s Hidden Information Hurts People & Policy

Nov 12, 2024

By MICHAEL MILLENSON

Open enrollment season for Medicare, which began Oct. 15 and ends Dec. 7, triggers a deluge of information about various options. Since I’m a health care consultant and researcher as well as a Medicare beneficiary, I’ve looked critically at what we’re told and what we’re not. Unfortunately, information crucial both for the individual and for the broader policy goal of moving toward a “value-based” care system is often difficult to find or not available at all.

The most glaring example involves Medicare Advantage, the increasingly popular insurer-run plans that are an alternative to traditional fee-for-service Medicare. Plans receive a quality grade from one to five stars from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Those grades are designed to incentivize providing the highest quality care for the money — the very definition of “value.” A high grade triggers both a boost in payment from Medicare and a boost in enrollment. Not surprisingly, almost three-quarters of people chose a plan with a 4-, 4.5- or 5-star rating, according to CMS.

Those ratings, however, should come with a large asterisk attached. It’s not just that the methodology can be controversial, particularly when a lower grade is meted out. It’s that the star ratings aren’t anchored in geography, as one would naturally expect; i.e., the rating is for the plan offered in my area. What is colloquially called a “five-star plan” is actually a plan that’s part of a five-star Medicare contract — and those two typically are not the same thing.

For instance, one large insurer contract that I tracked included at least 17 plans scattered across the country. It defies common sense to believe that care quality is identical among plans in, say, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Illinois, Colorado, and California just because they all share the same government contract number.

If you’re wondering who benefits from this not-very-transparent transparency, some insurers have been known to improve the rating of a low-performing plan with a small number of members by merging it into a contract with more members and a higher rating.

In 2024, nearly 33 million people, or 54% of Medicare beneficiaries, were enrolled in an MA plan, according to KFF (formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF expects that number to increase to nearly 36 million in 2025. It’s a long-accepted truism that “All health care is local.” Medicare beneficiaries deserve local plan information.

Heat-related illnesses are preventable; here’s how

Nov 6, 2024

By PHIYEN NGUYEN & KRISTINA CARVALHO

As we enjoy the crisp air of fall, a harsh reality remains: our planet is heating up. With more frequent and intense heat waves, 57.5 million Americans are living in areas with dangerously hot summer conditions, yet many states remain unprepared for the heat crisis already unfolding.

Impact of Heat on Health

Extreme heat poses a growing health threat, causing more deaths in recent years in the United States than any other weather-related event. Heat-related illnesses (HRIs), such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke, are on the rise, particularly among the elderly, children, outdoor workers, and individuals with certain preexisting medical conditions.

Not all communities are affected equally. Low-income neighborhoods and communities of color, often situated in urban “heat islands,” face greater exposure and have less access to cooling resources. Moreover, extreme heat worsens air pollution and spreads disease-carrying insects, exacerbating health risks.

Without stronger protections, HRIs will continue to escalate, especially among populations who are already at increased health risks. Heat standards are a key part of the solution.

What are Heat Standards?

Heat standards are regulations that protect workers from excessive heat by requiring breaks, water access, and emergency procedures to prevent HRIs. Yet few states have heat standards in place.

In 2005, California was the first state to implement a mandatory HRI prevention standard requiring water, shade structures, and rest breaks for outdoor workplaces when temperatures exceed 80°F. Employers are also required to educate their workers about HRIs and have additional precautions in place when the temperatures exceed 95°F. A few months ago, California even expanded protections to include indoor workplaces when it is over 82°F inside.

Washington, Colorado, and Oregon followed suit with similar policies, though without indoor regulations. On the other hand, Minnesota’s heat standard only applies to indoor workspaces. But it’s unique in that it also applies to care facilities such as nursing homes and daycares, protecting the elderly and young children. Lastly, Maryland just passed a heat standard that applies to all outdoor and indoor workers across all industries.

All other states, including warm ones like Arizona, have no established heat standards. Texas and Florida have even tried to prevent their cities and towns from mandating that employers provide heat protections like water breaks.

Heat Standards Work!

Although formal studies are limited, there’s enough observational data to suggest that heat standards are effective at keeping people safe and healthy.

For example, California saw a 30% decrease in reported HRIs following implementation of its heat standard in 2005. Similarly, HRI-related medical visits in Oregon dropped by 75% in the year after the state enacted its standard. What’s more, that was in spite of having more days with temperatures above 80°F as well.

In short, HRIs are preventable. And they’re also cost-effective.

Engineers: Heal Thyselves (and Health Care)

Oct 30, 2024

By KIM BELLARD

The article I can’t get out of my head is one by Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal: Crises at Boeing and Intel Area National Emergency.

I’m old enough that I remember when the Boeing 707 took airline passenger travel from the prop age to the jet age. I’m old enough that I remember that we all wanted PCs with Intel chips when companies starting giving office workers their first PCs. I’ve read enough history to know the storied engineering background and achievements of both. I mean, those B-52s that have been the backbone of the U.S. Air Force bomber command for the past 70+ years: those are Boeing planes.

To younger people, though, Being is the company whose doors pop out mid-flight, or which abandons astronauts in space. When they think of Intel – oh, I’m just kidding; when younger people think about chip companies, it’s NVIDIA or TSMC. Intel’s stock is doing so badly it may get kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

So, as Mr. Ip says: “A generation ago, any list of America’s most admired manufacturers would have had Intel and Boeing near the top. Today, both are on the ropes.”

He goes on to add:

The U.S. still designs the world’s most innovative products, but is losing the knack for making them.

At the end of 1999, four of the 10 most valuable U.S. companies were manufacturers. Today, none are. The lone rising star: Tesla, which ranked 11th.

Intel and Boeing were once the gold standard in manufacturing groundbreaking products to demanding specifications with consistently high quality. Not any longer.

What is most frustrating, Mr. Ip points out, is: “Neither fell prey to cheap foreign competition, but to their own mistakes. Their culture evolved to prioritize financial performance over engineering excellence.”

As an example, in a Blockbuster-could-have-bought-Netflix parallel, The New York Times reports that Intel could have bought NVIDIA in 2005, but the reported $20b price was considered too expensive. NVIDIA is now worth $3.5 trillion. Whoops.

Boeing’s new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, admits: “The trust in our company has eroded,” and that Boeing needs “a fundamental change in culture.” It doesn’t help that its machinists have been on strike almost 2 months, with the union rejecting Boeing’s latest offer last week. Boeing is slashing some 17,000 jobs, considering selling off its Starliner business, and trying to raise as much as $25b.

Intel has also cut jobs, is trying to beef up its manufacturing through a revitalized foundry business (which some believe Intel should spin off), and has seen its stock crater (down 52% YTD), but CEO Pat Gelsinger vows: “We see the finish line in sight.”

Intel is still waiting for some $8.5b in CHIPS Act funding, “There’s been renegotiations on both sides,” Mr. Gelsinger told The New York Times. “My simple message is, ‘Let’s get it finished.’” But, as former Commerce Department official Caitlin Legacki noted: [There is fear that] Intel is going to take chips money, build an empty shell of a factory and then never actually open it, because they don’t have customers.” Its much-hyped plants in Arizona and Ohio have both faced setbacks.

Meanwhile, the vultures are circling: there are rumors that Samsung and Apple may want to acquire Intel.

The trouble is, which is Mr. Ip’s point, neither has any real domestic competition; if either would fail, it would throw even more of our economy to the mercy of foreign manufacturers (or, in its space business, make the U.S. even more dependent on Elon Musk’s SpaceX). That’s the national emergence he is warning about.

My point with all this is not so much to add another lament about the decline of U.S. manufacturing as to emphasize the decline of the role of engineers. Earlier this year Jerry Useem, writing in The Atlantic, argued: “When the wave of Japanese competition finally crashed on corporate America, those best equipped to understand it—the engineers—were no longer in charge. American boardrooms had been handed over to the finance people.”

Mr. Useem points out that a revitalized GE “is belatedly yielding to the reality that workers on the gemba [Japanese term for the shop floor, where value is actually created] are far better at figuring out more efficient ways of making things than remote bureaucrats with spreadsheet abstractions.” That sounds a lot like what Mr. Ortberg is saying: “We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs.”

So what, you might ask, does this have to do with healthcare?

It turns out that there is something called a healthcare engineer.

My Father and Arnold Palmer – Embodying Honesty and Respect

Oct 27, 2024

By MIKE MAGEE

My father and Arnold Palmer had a great deal in common – and none of it involved golf. They were both men of faith and lived into their 80’s. My father was Catholic, and Arnold Palmer was Presbyterian. But on the day that Palmer died (September 25, 2016), Benedictine Archabbot Douglas R. Nowicki of St. Vincent’s Archabbey in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, was at his bedside.

Nowicki and Palmer’s friendship dated back a half century. He and his wife would often attend 7:30 a.m. Sunday Mass at the abbey.

At the time of Palmer’s death, the Benedictine monk said, “Arnie sort of appealed to everyone. There were no barriers, race, color, creed — those were things that never entered into his mind. He was welcoming to everybody and treated everyone with tremendous warmth and respect.”

But eight years and one month after his death, Palmer’s daughter, Peg Palmer Wears felt compelled to rise up and defend her father’s honor. In the Latrobe Airport, named after him, Donald Trump (according to FOX News) “discussed the golf legend’s manhood and how other players would react to Palmer in the showers.” Specifically, in an effort to relate to the local audience, Trump said, “He was all man. This man was so strong and tough, and I refused to say it, but when he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there; they said, ‘Oh my God, that’s unbelievable.’”

The reaction from his daughter, a registered Independent from North Carolina, was swift. She labeled his words, “disrespectful” and “inappropriate”… “appropriating someone he admires to bolster his own image, people deserve better.” Her words in defense of her father, who was no longer there to speak for himself, called to mind my sister Sue’s Eulogy to our father. It focused on the values and qualities in him that she admired – honesty, hard work, compassion, integrity, humility, kindness, and love for others.