Categories

Above the Fold

POLICY/INTERNATIONAL: Obvious, but public and private taxes still cost money

Via Ezra, Krugman, and  Bradford Plumer there are some interesting numbers showing that the private welfare state (i.e. pensions, health benefits, etc provided by corporations) in the US added to the public welfare state which exists here but is more extensive in Europe, is roughly the same size as its counterparts in Europe. Krugman’s point, which I’ve reflected many times, is that if you let the corporate welfare system fall apart (i.e. replace GM as largest employer with Wal-Mart) then you are going to have a collapse in the coverage of welfare which will be to the wide detriment of society, particularly to the middle-classes. The fall in employer-based health insurance is the most obvious example of this collapse, and it will continue to get worse until there’s a political solution some years down the road. (Although in Joe Paduda’s view the time-table for this solution is moving up).

What I’ve been saying for years is that whether you call them “premiums” or “taxes”, society (i.e. people) still needs to pay for the underlying expenses, and when your underlying expenses are up to two times greater than those of other countries, you will have to pay more for them. So, there is a cost for having health care at 15% of GDP, and we are going to have to pay it somehow. And that’s one reason why other countries make serious efforts to contain those costs, with all the unpleasant consequences that may entail, as I discussed yesterday.

POLICY/INTERNATIONAL: A European conservative complains, but groks the problem

This is pretty interesting. Paul Belien, a Belgian conservative is complaining about governments in Europe cutting spending on health care, with the results that more expensive technologies are withheld from the elderly (like his 90 year old uncle).  He thinks the answer is to move towards building reserves for the future, and he’s probably is in the individual HSA crowd (although theoretically these could be pooled reserves). But that’s not the interesting thing.

The interesting thing is that he understands the equation. If we spend more on health care, we spend less on other things, and that there’s a choice between these positions. Given that, he has what he considers to be a solutions. Here’s his conclusion.

At the root of these decisions is the understandable desire of governments to control health-care costs. But rationing is clearly not the answer. What many governments in Western Europe have overlooked is that there is nothing wrong with a society devoting more of its resources to health care. This even appears to be an indication of prosperity. The higher and the more developed a society becomes, the more its citizens are willing to spend on keeping healthy. Modern technology makes everything cheaper except the highest quality of medical care, which is constantly improving. To try to limit access to this technology in the name of “cost-control” is irresponsible.

Meanwhile, the larger and more fundamental problem of how to finance the health-care systems is not adressed. Instead of funding the provisions of today’s sick with taxes from today’s healthy and young, people should be building up reserves for their own future liabilities. What Europe needs is to replace its pay-as-you-go systems by privatized and capitalized health-care systems. This, however, would imply that the governments relinquish control over the system, which is the very last thing they are willing to do.

Now I disagree with him about who should ultimately control health care, because I think it’s more of a public good than he does, but at least we are starting on the same page—one that I went over at length in my “Health care = Communism + Frappuchinos” article, which is well worth another read. The issue is that some care is basic and some care is a luxury good bought on the margins. You’ll note that he never says directly that people should be forced to pay for all their own health care with no cross-subsidiaztion. Of course that is where the US has been heading, and why our poor and unisured are literally dying (albeit not) in the streets.

Would it that we could have this rational argument with most conservatives (and even several liberals) in this country. Instead we get the Cato guys missing the point by trying to get us to worry about the almost incidental spending on the healthy, and Ron being Ron. No one wants to talk about whether or not we should be paying for the more expensive stuff for the 90 year old uncle, and that’s the real debate.

THCB: Updating …

A little light blog keeping to do today. If you haven’t listened to one of the podcasts, the podcast archive is now up and running. If you have yet to subscribe to the podcast feed – you can go here – and grab the link.  The media page is now up as well, so you can go have a look at what’s been written about the Health Care Blog recently. 

POLICY: Employment-based healthcare, more of the same uneven erosion

There are two ways employers get out of providing health care. They can stop providing it (and plenty of data shows that they are doing just that) and they can also pass more of the cost onto their employees. That also has the impact that at the margin their employees stop purchasing it for their families or themselves. But it has one more impact, which is that the employees’ costs are going up much faster than the employers.

California Healthline had a good summary of a WSJ article and other accounts of a Mercer survey this week showing that pushing more costs onto workers reduces the employers’ costs (or at least reduces the amount of increase in those costs).

According to the survey, employers’ health care costs rose 6.1% in 2005, compared with 7.5% in 2004, 10.1% in 2003 and 14.7% in 2002. The average cost of company health plans increased from $6,679 per employee in 2004 to $7,089 per employee in 2005, the survey found . Employer spending on health coverage would have increased 10% in 2005 without the shift in cost to employees and changes to health plans, according to the survey.

Now there’s nothing revelatory here, other than some continued misunderstanding by economists that this is just moving the deckchairs on the Titanic. It is moving the deck chairs on the Titanic in terms of containing overall health costs–they’re not going to be much affected by who ends up picking up the tab at the margins. But despite the feelings of snooty doctoral students at Harvard and even brilliant health economists at Stanford, there is an impact in the real world from who pays for what.

That’s because it’s not as if employers are rewarding their employees with extra cash to replace essentially lowering their health care benefits (or making them pay higher "premium per benefit"). So those employers who cut benefits more have lower labor costs and therefore make higher profits. Hence the continued difference in the margins of Costco and unionized supermarkets on the one hand and the Wal-Mart on the other.  This leads to those economists who’ve vacated the Ivory Towers and instead taken the lure of the filthy lucre to become analysts on Wall Street to put continued pressure on the "good" companies to end up looking like the Wal-Marts of the world. Which has been playing out in labor disputes across the country and even has affected the hallowed halls of General Motors itself.

And while the end of the employer-based health care system is something I am in favor of, I’m not in favor of it dying by a thousand cuts while nothing is there to replace it.

Coda: The crack at the Harvard doctoral student is an old chestnut here at THCB. However, me taking aim at America’s greatest health economist and my old professor Vic Fuchs is quite another thing. Here’s what he said in his latest Health Affairs article, which (apart from this little dispute is excellent as you’d expect):

Today the largest private employer is Wal-Mart, which despite its size faces intense competition daily from a host of other retail outlets. When they offer health insurance, it must come out of their workers’ wages; for minimum-wage employees, this is not possible, so it often will mean loss of jobs.

While that is true across the economy, it assumes that there are constant margins among firms within one industry. But we know that’s not true. Wal-Mart has much higher margins and higher profits than other retailers. it could easily afford more generous health benefits, and maybe would have them if it was unionized. However, we know that Wal-Mart spends incredible amounts of effort to prevent unions getting a foothold, partly because of the health insurance issue, and overall in order to keep its labor costs lower. Wal-Mart tries to keep all of its costs lower including those of its suppliers, other than one set of "costs" — those that it retains as earnings, some of which it pays to its shareholders. So to say that "It must come out of their wages" only really holds true if you count the dividends that the Walton family (net worth >$100 billion) collects as "wages". You could just pay them (and the other shareholders) lower margins and pay the workers more in health benefits. That’s exactly what Costco does. But that’s the real world not the economists’ theoretical level playing field that Vic Fuchs doesn’t usually get stuck on.

Technorati: , , , , , , ,

Policy: What is a transplant worth? By John Pluenneke

Nearly a hundred thousand Americans are on waiting lists  hoping for organ transplants. Thousands will
die this year alone. Should a free market be allowed to develop to allow those who
can afford to do so to purchase the liver or kidney that will let them to go on
living? 

Rather surprisingly, I find
myself agreeing with an editorial in the San Francisco Chronicle today by David
Holcberg at the Ayn Rand Institute – of all places – who argues that opponents of a legalized
organ trade,  although well-intentioned, have it the wrong way around.   

Poor people, they claim, are
incapable of making rational choices, and so must be protected from themselves.
But the fact is that human beings (poor or rich) do have the capacity of reason
and should be free to exercise it. Of course, the decision to sell an organ
should not be made lightly. That some people might make irrational choices,
however, is no reason to violate the rights of everyone. If the law recognizes
our right to give away an organ, it should also recognize our right to sell one.

There are important questions which Holcberg
does not address. What would such a market look
like?  How would it be regulated, if at
all?  Who among us is to say what the
exact price of a heart should be?  A million
dollars? Two?  What about a kidney?

The implications
for society as a whole are thought-provoking.  The skeptics are
correct of course when they raise questions. Would there be instances in which desperately
ill people were taken advantage of by the greedy and unscrupulous? Clearly, yes.  But then again, that already happens every
day. It’s time for a  sane policy.

UPDATE: The compensation issue is clearly going to get a lot of play after the latest developments in the ethics controversy surrounding the Korean stem cell program. Last week, there was the news that  Korean researchers paid women the equivalent of $1,500 each to donate their eggs to help scientist Dr. Hwang Woo Suk’s research. Then, last night Korean TV broadcast an hour long special in which several women who took part in the experiments say they were under financial pressure at the time. Roh Sung Il, the manager of the Seoul fertility clinic involved, argues the arrangement was not outlawed at the time the donations took place …   

The latest evidence appears to show that Koreans still back Hwang – who is considered a national hero for his work. The Korea Times  has a poll out this morning that claims 2 out of 3 Koreans still support Hwang despite the charges.

Technorati: , , , , , , , ,

PHARMA: Pain Therapeutics causes yet more headaches

Those of you hanging out here for a while know that I’m a long term holder of Pain Therapeutics stock. The pitch is that it has three drugs in phase III trials, one for pain, one for IBS and one a non-alterable version of Oxycontin. the stock went public at 14, it usually trades between 6 and 9, and I bought a boatload at between 2 & 4 in the dark days of late 2002/early 2003.

Now I’ve been hanging on for the last of two phase III trials of its star drug Oxytrex, which is supposed to be a non-addictive version of Oxycodone (the active ingredient in Oxycontin which is a multi-billion $$ drug). The first Phase III trial looked good, but was a little inconclusive, and the stock that was hovering in the 5-6 range didn’t move much. Still given the company’s market cap is only in the low hundred millions and any one of these drugs alone if successful is worth several billions, it’s always looked a good bet to me.

Then last week Pain Therapeutics cut a great deal in which it essentially passed off a share of the profits and all of the costs for its third line drug Remoxy (yes the CEO’s name is "Remi"–no ego huh!), which is a non-alterable version of Oxycontin (and therefore can’t be abused as Oxycontin or "Hillbilly Heroin" is frequently), to King Pharma for up to $400m, including $150m in cash.  The stock went up about $2.50 and I was looking forward to a conclusive phase III for Oxytrex leading to an FDA approval.

So today the Phase III results are out and they are maddening.  The drug appears to work, but too many people dropped out of the trial, and so the results are not statistically significant. My guess is that the FDA will make them go around again.  The stock is now back down to more or less where it was before the King deal (so I suppose it could have been a good deal worse). But still no clear end in sight.

I’ve been hanging on for about 3 years.  And of course in the meantime I didn’t buy any Google stock because it didn’t have much upside….

Any suggestions from my readers as to what I should do now?

POLICY: CHCF report on Safety Net Clinics

Given that the community clinics are apparently our brave leader’s only thoughts about how to provide care for the poor in America, it’s pretty timely that a new California Health Care Foundation study is out giving a primer on safety net clinics in California (PDF). And of course the population they serve is often underserved, uninsured, doesn’t speak English, and is growing. Here’s the conclusion.

SAFETY-NET CLINICS HAVE BECOME INDISPENSABLE components of the health care system for vulnerable and underserved populations. However, these clinics rely on a patchwork of funding sources to provide comprehensive primary care and preventive services in the communities they serve. In the current operational climate these clinics face major challenges to longterm sustainability and expansion to meet the needs of growing numbers of uninsured

Note: I have worked recently for CHCF, and while as a Foundation it cannot take political stances or voice exact opinions, I can only applaud its efforts in shining a bright light into the murkier parts of our nation’s health care "policy"

PHARMA/POLICY/POLITICS: Medicare Part D–A mess that will need fixing when the grown-ups get back into power

Last week the most convoluted program in the history of Medicare began. I’ve heard comments from friends, neighbors and people in the press saying that they can’t make heads or tails of the new drug benefit. The Washington Post piled in on Saturday with yet more about how confused seniors are.

Whether you like it or loathe it, there are some interesting parts of the Medicare Modernization Act, including the HSA provision and the disease management provisions. But the main event–drug coverage–is neither rational nor ideologically consistent. It’s a dog’s breakfast put together to ensure that the PBMs and some private health plans have something extra to sell, and so that the pharmaceutical companies don’t have to deal directly with the government on pricing.

Now seniors are going to have to deal with a donut hole, out-of-pocket costs, in-network and out-of-network pharmacies, and deciding whether their employer-sponsored coverage is going to stay around. No wonder they’re confused.

And despite all this, the cost to taxpayers is going to be double what Congress was told it would be. Drug coverage for everyone (especially seniors) is needed. But the only prediction I can make is that a more fiscally and socially responsible government–should we get one–will be forced to re-sort this mess in the very near future.

Technorati: , , , , , , ,

TECH: The evolution of wireless in hospitals

Now that cell phones and Wi-fi have proven to be safe and essential for health care facilities, there’s a race on to get signals into those buildings. This is proving to have some interesting possibilities, but is also bringing some technical challenges to hospital technology managers. Frequently buildings are too dense to allow good cell phone signal, while increased demand for Wi-fi and VOIP is putting pressure on the ad-hoc Wi-fi networks being built up in many hospitals. One solution gaining traction is to locate PCS, cellular and paging, and Wi-fi services centrally and create a series of ceiling-based transmitters to amplify and distribute the various signals. One company in the forefront of this is InnerWireless, which has announced several installation wins in recent weeks. I recently spoke with Jim McCoy, chief technology officer of InnerWireless, and Tuomo Rutanen of Ekahau to find out a little more about what’s going on inside the wireless world for hospitals.

Wireless and Wi-fi are different. InnerWireless’ technology deploys Wi-fi, as well as PCS, cellular, 2 way radio, 2 way paging and other signals. Conventional practice for Wi-fi is to deploy those points throughout a floor or department. Innerwireless co locates those Wi-fi access points at one place per floor, combine their outputs and then injects them onto their distributed antenna, therefore giving every user the strength of multiple antenna to access. This enhances Wi-fi data and more importantly VOIP performance. There tend to be around 6 distributed antenna per typical 20,000 sq ft floor, each one up in a ceiling panel where it’s installed once and forgotten about. All other services (cellular, PCS, etc) are piped to the same access point from aggregated through a main console room. And of course once the central points are in for cellular, it’s probably more cost-effective to layer Wi-fi into that system than to do it with ad-hoc networks.

In addition InnerWireless, Ekahau, and others are developing the ability to track patients, products and equipment in a cost-effective real time manner using the Wi-fi network–an always-on alternative to RFID which works sort of like an “indoors GPS”. They are both deploying tracking tags on people and equipment, and the size and price of those tags is falling rapidly. Ekahau’s approach takes advantage of the existing Wi-fi network, whereas InnerWireless uses its installed antennas and adds several more battery-operated sensors (probably 20 more per floor) to extend the accuracy of its trackers. Innerwireless is running their tracking over a different system within their infrastructure and are using the 802.15.4 standard for the tags.

These are two innovative companies attacking a key problem for health care facilities. Given the problems hospitals have locating their staff, patients and other movable parts, expect this technology to spread rapidly.

 

assetto corsa mods