Those of you hanging out here for a while know that I’m a long term holder of Pain Therapeutics stock. The pitch is that it has three drugs in phase III trials, one for pain, one for IBS and one a non-alterable version of Oxycontin. the stock went public at 14, it usually trades between 6 and 9, and I bought a boatload at between 2 & 4 in the dark days of late 2002/early 2003.
Now I’ve been hanging on for the last of two phase III trials of its star drug Oxytrex, which is supposed to be a non-addictive version of Oxycodone (the active ingredient in Oxycontin which is a multi-billion $$ drug). The first Phase III trial looked good, but was a little inconclusive, and the stock that was hovering in the 5-6 range didn’t move much. Still given the company’s market cap is only in the low hundred millions and any one of these drugs alone if successful is worth several billions, it’s always looked a good bet to me.
Then last week Pain Therapeutics cut a great deal in which it essentially passed off a share of the profits and all of the costs for its third line drug Remoxy (yes the CEO’s name is "Remi"–no ego huh!), which is a non-alterable version of Oxycontin (and therefore can’t be abused as Oxycontin or "Hillbilly Heroin" is frequently), to King Pharma for up to $400m, including $150m in cash. The stock went up about $2.50 and I was looking forward to a conclusive phase III for Oxytrex leading to an FDA approval.
So today the Phase III results are out and they are maddening. The drug appears to work, but too many people dropped out of the trial, and so the results are not statistically significant. My guess is that the FDA will make them go around again. The stock is now back down to more or less where it was before the King deal (so I suppose it could have been a good deal worse). But still no clear end in sight.
I’ve been hanging on for about 3 years. And of course in the meantime I didn’t buy any Google stock because it didn’t have much upside….
Any suggestions from my readers as to what I should do now?