Not long ago we received our first signs that all may not be well in the land of milk, honey, and low priced insurance, i.e. the ACA insurance exchanges. Many insurers, including some of the largest in each state, have requested double digit rate increases, with some asking for raises that exceed 30 percent. A casual review of these requests suggests that the increases are largest in areas where the premiums were initially lowest. If these increases are approved, it will mean dramatically higher payments for enrollees, and escalating tax bills for the rest of us. This is particularly true when the premium hikes affect the lowest priced “silver” plans available in the market (as the subsidies are tied to premiums for the second cheapest silver plan). Of course, the premium increases might backfire on insurers, but only if enrollees opt to switch to cheaper plans.
However, we have grave doubts about whether this will be the case. If participants in the exchanges behave like enrollees in employer-sponsored plans, then it seems unlikely that there will be much switching out of plan. This is a natural consequence of the way the exchanges work, combined with well documented inertia on the part of health insurance enrollees.
What is this inertia? Academic research performed here at Northwestern University and elsewhere convincingly shows that employees are reluctant to switch health plans, even if they stand to save $2000 or more without sacrificing quality or access. In addition, a pair of studies of Medicare Part D prescription drug plans also demonstrate that consumers switch plans infrequently and those that switch do those mostly in response to changes in the design of their own plan (i.e., are their preferred drugs on formulary) rather than in response to the relative financial attractiveness of theirs versus competing plans.