We’ve been watching self tracking at Health 2.0 for a little while, as it emerges from the world of the Quantified Self geeks to becoming a more mainstream set of shiny consumer gadgets. Today’s NY Times takes a look at just a few of the shiniest including Fitbit and the French company Withings. It has a Wi-Fi scale that sends your weight to the cloud and a beautiful (really!) blood pressure cuff that attaches to your iPhone-both of which I’ve been test driving and like. Also although the NY Times author Farhad Manjoo doesn’t seem to care–despite the fact he obviously has a young kid–a Withings baby monitor is on the way to market too. Many other players aren’t in this article, including sleep monitor Zeo, exerciser tracker BodyMedia and emerging data utility layer platform RunKeeper. But you won’t be surprised to hear that all four and more will be at the forthcoming Health 2.0 Conference on Sept 25-7
Above the Fold
The Debt Ceiling and Health Care
Over the weekend, I watched Twitter as drops of information about the debt ceiling leaked out bit by bit. There was a deal. No deal. Well, maybe a deal.The deal would require Congress to wait until a Balanced Budget Amendment passed in the states before it acted. Well, no it actually didn’t include that. Medicare was on the chopping block. Well, not cuts to members, only cuts to physicians and other providers. What’s an ordinary person to think?
There was plenty of humiliation to go around. Speaker Boehner didn’t return the president’s phone calls. Speaker Boehner couldn’t rally his own party to support his deal. Majority Leader Reid couldn’t get Republicans to talk to him. Sen. McConnell would only talk to Biden not Reid, and his unfortunate facial expressions left us with the impression that he had a serious digestive problem. The classic picture was Boehner in the House elevator letting out a long groan as the doors closed. He was not the only one groaning.
Pundits made the worst cliché pronouncements. Everything was a “crisis”; there was lots of “kicking the can down the road.” TV time had to be filled and fill it they did. Those smart folks who spent the weekend outside, barbecuing or swimming, were the wise ones. We all knew it would come down to the last moment, but oh, was it painful to watch those last agonizing hours.
There Will Be Blood
The debt deal is finally done. But it really isn’t an agreement on what cuts will be made, just the process that will be used to make them.
The real work is left to the Congressional appropriators for the first $917 billion and for a super-committee of Congress for the second $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in ten-year cuts.
That second tranche is where health care will make its contribution. The super-committee has to make its decisions by November 23rd and, as a practical matter, the Congress can only accept what the super-committee decides or face the consequences of the automatic $1.2 trillion fallback cuts.
When it comes to health care and the super-committee, all federal health care spending is on the table—–Medicare, Medicaid, the new law, benefits, and provider payments.
Since the budget window for the deal is ten years, it is not likely that any changes will be made to entitlement eligibility—such as delaying the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67. It just wouldn’t be fair to tell a 60-year-old their Medicare eligibility age is being raised. But we could see more means testing of Medicare premiums.
Attila the Cardiologist
The history of Western civilization, from prehistoric times until relatively recently (so recently, in fact, that one cannot be absolutely certain the pattern has been broken), has been marked by successive waves of invasions by wild barbarians from the north. (This explains why DrRich will never completely trust the Canadians.) Every few hundred years, one group of primitives or another – Scythians, Goths, Vandals, Huns, Avars, Norsemen, Bulgars, Mongols, and others named and unnamed – would sweep down upon their betters, upon the more civilized, more culturally and intellectually advanced people to the south, and by the expediencies of slaughter, rape and pillage, would take their land, possessions, freedom, and their lives. The advancing barbarian wave would eventually play itself out, and individual members of the untamed horde would simply settle in place, and over a few generations would become civilized themselves – until the next group of barbarians, in turn, would fall upon them.
It was a cycle as natural as the seasons.
What drove these irresistible barbarian movements? Historians still argue about it. Likely these violent migrations were caused by several different things – famine, plague, encroachment by even nastier barbarians from even farther north, and climate change (though this latter conjecture is now politically incorrect, since the official and proper view of the earth’s climate is that it was absolutely stable for millions of years, until Henry Ford and George Bush came along and bent the temperature curve upwards, like a hockey stick).
The reason DrRich brings all this up, of course, is: to warn his medical colleagues about the cardiologists.
Rethinking The Value Of Medical Services
One of American politics’ most disingenuous conceits is that health care must cost what we currently pay. Another is that the only way to make it cost less is to deny care. It has been in industry executives’ financial interests to perpetuate these myths, but most will acknowledge privately that the way we value and pay for medical services is a deep root of America’s health care cost explosion.
When the Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) became the framework for Medicare payment nearly twenty years ago, it equated a medical service’s “value” with four categories of physician work inputs: time, mental effort and judgment, technical skill and physical effort, and psychological stress. The assessment process, handled from the outset by the American Medical Association’s (AMA) secretive, specialist-dominated Relative Value Scale Update Committee (RUC), delineates and quantifies a service’s inputs in terms of its Relative Value Units (RVUs) which, with a monetary multiplier, define its worth.
In 1989, RBRVS’ lead architect, William Hsaio, confidently suggested that the process would be rational and reliable:
We found that physicians can rate the relative amount of work of the services within their specialty directly, taking into account all the dimensions of work. Moreover, these ratings are highly reproducible, consistent, and therefore probably valid.
Don’t Stop Medical Innovation
The New York Times says “In Medicine, New Isn’t Always Improved.”
Who can argue with this?
“In Dining, New Restaurants Aren’t Always Better.”
Yes, that’s true, too. But does it mean anything?
The article is about a type of hip that is apparently going to be the focus of a lawsuit. The story goes that a lot of people wanted the new hip when it came out, because it was thought to be better than the older ones. Unfortunately, the hip seems to have hurt some people, some of whom may have been better off getting the older one in the first place.
A doctor quoted in the article suggests it’s part of a uniquely American tic. We want all of the latest and greatest things for ourselves, it seems. This story is supposed to be a cautionary tale of what can go wrong when we do.
On the other hand, the latest and greatest things don’t appear out of nowhere. In America, when people demand something, there will be someone who supplies it.
It’s true. Doctors, researchers, the government, and, yes, for-profit companies, create things. They invent diagnostic tests and treatments for disease that never existed before. One reason why the U.S. has a trillion-dollar health care economy is because there are so many people creating so many new things that people can sanely talk about curing – or at least managing – all disease. This is a good thing.
But all these breakthroughs are a two-edged sword.
Off-base Optimism
I like to view myself as an optimist, but two recent reports demonstrate the danger of misplaced or premature optimism. I fear that they are influenced by what the authors hope will be the case rather than what has proven to be the case. I find this generally to be the situation in the health care arena, where public policy is often based on shallow interpretations of data and on people’s political wishes rather than rigorous analysis.
The first comes from Karen Davis at the Commonwealth Fund, in a blog post entitled, “Health Spending Continues to Moderate, Cost of Reform Overestimated.” We should know from the title alone that the conclusions cannot be accurate: It is just too soon to reach them. It would be like drawing a picture of climate change from one year of data about temperatures.
Here’s an excerpt:
A recent report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) shows that national health spending grew at a historically low rate of 3.9 percent in 2010, almost paralleling the 3.8 percent increase in our gross domestic product (GDP) last year. This is . . . good news for the federal government as the slowdown indicates that the cost of health reform has been overestimated.
Now, let’s look at the possible reasons:
First . . . continuing declines in employment and private health insurance coverage have contributed to fewer people receiving both essential and nonessential treatment. [F]ewer people have received needed preventive and acute care. And people have increasingly gone without prescriptions, tests, and elective procedures.
Chinese Research: Not Quite the Juggernaut?
A perennial topic around here has been the state of scientific research in China (and other up-and-coming nations). There’s no doubt that the number of scientific publications from China has been increasing (be sure to read the comments to that post; there’s more to it than I made of it). But many of these papers, on closer inspection, are junk, and are published in junk journals of no impact whatsoever. Mind you, that’s not an exclusively Chinese problem – Sturgeon’s Law is hard to get away from, and there’s a lot of mediocre (and worse than mediocre) stuff coming out of every country’s scientific enterprise.
But what about patents? The last couple of years have seen many people predicting that China would soon be leading the world in patent applications as well, which can be the occasion for pride or hand-wringing, depending on your own orientation. But there’s a third response: derision. And that’s what Anil Gupta and Haiyan Wang provide in the Wall Street Journal. They think that most of these filings are junk:
As if we needed further proof…
This weekend tells us three things. One, American government is beyond broken. In this completely artificial debate, a minority opinion that after all represents a minority of the opinions of a party that only controls one third of the government dictates the terms of the deficit reduction compromise. A compromise that is pure fantasy anyway. Two, no one in DC gives a shit about the economy and particularly no one cares the lowest 30% of Americans who are un- or marginally employed or relying on support from society. We heard nary a peep even from any Democrats about them as we insanely cut spending in the middle of a recession. It’s 1937 all over again. Third, health care is for sure a government business, according to Wall Street, with the stocks of most major insurers and hospitals off 5-10% this morning on fears of cuts in Medicare.
Deficit And Debt Politics: A Wake-Up Call For The Health Care Industry?
The 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) called for significant Medicare savings. All told, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the law would trim over $400 billion from Medicare spending during 2010-2019, reducing the program’s annual growth rate from 6.8 percent to 5.5 percent.
Those savings were enabled, at least in the case of hospitals, by the promise of expanding insurance coverage that would bring in more insured patients (and thus more revenues to help offset the Medicare cuts). Yet some observers in the health industry no doubt assumed that the ACA’s payment reductions could be reversed over time. After all, they had seen Congress repeatedly cancel scheduled payment cuts to Medicare physicians in the annual melodrama surrounding the Sustainable Growth Rate.
Why couldn’t the health care industry similarly expect to evade the ACA’s cost controls? In coming years, the industry could argue that any payment cuts would jeopardize patients’ access to care. And given that Medicare’s own actuary cast doubt on how realistic the projected savings were, the odds must have seemed good to hospitals and other providers that they could sooner or later count on SGR-like relief from Washington. Health reform offered an appealing political and business strategy: initially accept the projected cuts in the ACA, then gain more paying customers through the implementation of insurance expansion, and, finally, work to reverse the cuts and “unbend” the cost curve.
