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POLICY/POLITICS: My quick view on the politics of Medicare in the campaign, with brief UPDATE

There was a lot of fuss about Medicare and health care in the last few days, particularly brought up by Bush. I think this is a serious blunder on his part. Given Swift Boat and Kerry’s non-position (or actually he should just use Bill Maher as spokesman because he explains it well) on Iraq, why is Bush trying to change the subject?

Here’s why I think Bush is being politically dumb here. If you look at these polls, things are still very close, and the Bush convention bounce seems to be over. Now if you play with the electoral college (try here) basically if Kerry wins Florida and Pennsylvania, then Ohio, Missouri, etc, don’t matter. What is special about Florida and Pennsylvania? They are the two oldest populations in America. Why did Clinton win Florida in 1996? Because he scared seniors into believing that the Republicans would kill Medicare as seniors knew it. Now, premiums are going up, and HHS’ own data is showing that the cost of the drug benefits to seniors will consume most of their social security checks, and seniors hate the Medicare bill, especially the ban on drug importation.

So let’s play it out. Seniors vote at roughly one and a half times the rate of those under 65s. Four in ten seniors say that they’ll vote based on health care. While 12.1% of the US population is over 65, the number is 18.1% for Florida, and 15.8% for Pennsylvania’s. So essentially the more voters focus on health care, the more likely it is that they’ll vote for Kerry, and each one of those votes in magnified by 1.5 X 1.5 for seniors in those two states. (or to be really pedantic only 1.5 x 1.25 for Pennsylvania).

So why is Bush bringing this up? I don’t know. If I were him I’d go back to terra, terra, terra. Otherwise Kerry can keep bringing up this kind of stuff.

UPDATE: A correspondent tells me why Bush is bringing this up. Karl Rove apparently believes that you should attack the other guy’s strength, and so that’s why Bush is attacking Kerry on health care. With that strategy, I don’t think Rove would last long as a coach in the NFL, and he hasn’t won a national campaign yet (after all tying is like kissing your sister), but Arianna Huffington thinks that Kerry should take Rove’s advice and come after Bush on terrorism and Iraq.

CHARITY: Grenada hurricane victims appeal

In a first for THCB I’m asking readers to help the victims of Hurricane Ivan. My college friend Paula Robinson is having a great year off sailing the Caribbean with her boyfriend John. Great that is until last week when they chose to ride out the hurricane season in the supposedly safe climes of Grenada. Paula and John are now safe in Trinidad. Here’s Paula’s email:

We’re safe and well in Trinidad now despite Hurricane Ivan hitting Grenada while we were there. Thankyou all so much for your kind messages of concern and sorry to give you all so much stress waiting for news from us but as you can imagine all the phone lines and power was (and still is largely) cut off in Grenada. I used one of the other boat’s satellite phones to get a message through to my dad on Wednesday but only managed to leave half a garbled message. He then found the website listing all the boats that were in the area including the brief but satisfying comment “Yellow Bird in Secret Harbour – floating”.

Grenada however is seriously trashed from one end to the other and really suffering with 60,000 people estimated to have lost their homes and that means literally blown away. We were advised that since we were afloat we should push off somewhere else rather than stay and try to help as we’d only add to the shortages of food and water.

We arrived in Trinidad yesterday and are counting our blessings to have come through Hurricane Ivan in one piece. Rather too close for comfort. We had decided to stay in Grenada as the weather reports suggested Ivan was going to track north and we’d only get storm conditions. However when Ivan changed his mind and headed directly for Grenada it was too late to run. We anchored the boat and went ashore to spend 3 nights in a hotel, hoping for the best. Then Ivan whipped himself into a frenzy and became a category 5 hurricane; on a scale of 1-5 that’s the strongest category so it could not have been worse. Also the hurricane scored a direct hit on Grenada which has not been hit at all by any hurricane for 50 years. We still can’t quite believe we’re both fine and the boat has only suffered minor damage where another boat bashed into it.

When we get our breath back we’ll bore the pants off all of you with our wild hurricane stories, but for now “we be chilling, man”. Love to all at home and will give you the full story when we’ve got our heads round it all and thanks again for all the messages.

Meanwhile those poor people need all the help they can get. We’ve been helping load boxes of stores onto boats here in Trinidad that are heading off for Grenada tomorrow but it’s just a drop in the ocean and they need serious amounts of aid — including just the basics like water and food.

While Paula and John were lucky, 60,000 of Grenada’s 90,000 people were not and are homeless. The Red Cross has launched an appeal for $1.4m and is delivering aid already. Please consider donating. If everyone who reads TCHB gives up the price of a cup of coffee, we’d cover over 1% of the amount needed. To donate click here, or you can paypal the money to me at ma*****@*********lt.com and I’ll deliver it. Thanks.

QUALITY/POLICY/PHARMA: More on the costs of chemo

So the fight over cancer drug reimbursement is getting quite nasty. The doctors, who as we’ve explained in TCHB many times, have done very well over the last decade or so by dispensing drugs and charging Medicare and private payers a whopping margin, are crying foul as the details of the current price cutting by CMS emerge. Apparently they believe that the overall cut will be 15% as opposed to CMS’s stated 8%. There’s much more in this AP Article.

There’s actually some real money at stake here. About $600m is being cut from the chemo drug budget. ASCO claims 20,000 members but my mole in the business tells me that there are somewhere around 10,000 oncologists (or docs dispensing enough chemo to be counted as oncologists) in the US with an average income in the high-$300,000s of which roughly half comes from the drug mark-up. So you could argue that actually 30% of the doctors’ drug income (i.e. their margins rather than total drug spending) or around $60,000 per physician, is on the table. So expect the fight to continue, and of course have ramifications downstream on the pharma companies, and upstream on the patients.

Meanwhile, back on the subject of chemo, Harvey Fry writes concerning the post last week by Greg Pawelski on chemosensitivity testing.

I fought for chemo-sensitivity testing of cancers over 20 years ago, and finally lost because of the problems with the tests. First, it’s often hard to get a representative sample of tumor cells by biopsy. Then it’s hard to get them to grow. Then you’re not sure whether the cells that grew out are the tumor cells, or normal matrix, like fibroblasts. Then there’s the delay in starting treatment while waiting for the cells to grow out. Then there’s the question of whether cells in metastases have the same response as those in the primary. But the killer was that the clinical response was not that well predicted by the cell survival tests in the lab. And of course, there was the expense.

Unless there has been some major advance in the intervening years, I can understand the reluctance of some oncologists to go back to it. Alternatives to growing the cells and seeing what kills them may now exist, but they are only surrogates for the real end-point of interest.

Sidebar: I was struck by an amusing wrinkle in the end of the chemo article which showed how close the two sides are politically, even if they are fighting over money:

Ketchum Communications, the public relations company working with the cancer doctors to call for a change in the Medicare law, also is the principal contractor employed by the administration to promote that same law. The administration has spent $87 million on television ads, mailings and other means to promote the new law, most of it to tout prescription drug coverage that will be available through Medicare in 2006, the Health and Human Services Department said.

HEALTH PLANS: In Defense of HSAs, by Langdon Alger

THCB is pleased to welcome a new contributor, writing under the nom de plume Langdon Alger. Langdon works for the Feds, and THCB duly notes that Langdon has expressed the usual disclaimer of government employees who speak their own minds, namely that “the views in this [post] do not necessarily represent those of my organization.” So just to really stick in certain of THCB’s contributors’ craws, today we turn over the mike to someone who thinks HSAs will be modest in their impact (as does THCB) but that what impact they will have will be good (not something you hear much on this station, where the prevailing tune is far more like this!) Here’s Langdon’s piece:

Much has been said on the issue of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and despite all the criticism–much of which I agree with–I still find HSAs an attractive option. As a young, healthy, and well-informed healthcare consumer, a High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) with an HSA is obviously a good deal for me, but I still believe it will provide a net benefit to our healthcare system.

First, I fundamentally believe that healthcare and health insurance should be two separate entities. Doctors and hospitals provide healthcare; employers, the government, and the market provide health insurance. If people prefer managed care, they’ll make that choice, but I should have the option to choose insurance coverage that matches my needs. No other insurance industry provides such ridiculously low deductibles for such expensive coverage without exorbitant cost to the individual. Avoiding the “adverse selection death spiral” is entirely up to the health insurance industry providing value to its customers.

Two of the major criticisms of the HSA model are that it simply splits the risk pool and it shifts costs from employers to employees. I concede that both points are obviously true, but I think that both the magnitude and the significance of each effect are not as dire as critics would have us believe. Concerns over splitting the risk pool really lie in the fundamental issue of who should pay for what in healthcare. How much should we subsidize the heavy users of healthcare? A couple of thousand dollars per year less than we do now. That’s all HDHPs change in the world of health insurance. Insurance ends up being less expensive and a few more people get coverage. Are overall healthcare costs reduced? Absolutely, but maybe not by any significant margin. HDHPs and HSAs aren’t designed to address top dollar spending in healthcare, but that certainly doesn’t mean they don’t add value to the system. As far as shifting more healthcare costs from the employer to employee goes, this is an inevitable trend as long as healthcare costs rise faster than salaries and the health insurance industry continues to be dominated by the employer-sponsored model. HSAs don’t change a thing here.

One concern raised in this Blog is whether employers would want to adopt this system since they have to contribute to the HSA account in addition to the insurance premium; individuals with low healthcare costs might actually increase their spending on healthcare, given that they have a cash account to pay the costs. This should hardly be an issue since, from the employer’s perspective, the cost of HDHP including an HSA contribution is usually lower than traditional insurance or a managed care product (i.e. the employer cost shifting.) And it can still be a good option for employees since having an account actually makes preventive care even more likely (lowering long term costs), while the roll-over provision of the HSA eliminates the incentive to overspend each year.

One critical area of rising healthcare costs that HSAs do have the potential to reduce is prescription drugs. My employer spends upwards of 30% of total premiums on prescription drugs so there is obviously room for significant savings. Consumer choice and market price pressure are a great threat to the prescription drug industry if people begin to realize they can get drugs to cover their needs at a fraction of the price (often hidden in premiums) they pay now. How many people take name-brand heartburn, blood pressure, pain, allergy, cholesterol, or antidepressant medications and countless others that have inexpensive alternatives? Consumers have no concept of price transparency and value in the prescription drug market.

And finally, are HSAs just another tax break for the affluent? Hardly. Given that the maximum annual deposits are currently $2600 a person, the accounts are really aimed more at the middle class.

POLICY: Rebuttal and rebuke from The Industry Veteran on free (or not) markets and (legal) drug trade

And you thought all the verbal jousting was happening in the swing states. We at THCB find that nothing gets the blood and vituperation flowing as much as talk about drugs and money changing hands, such as these contributions from last week. As you might expect, one particular contributor was not too impressed by what he read. Herewith, the temperate and dulcet tones of The Industry Veteran on the complications of free market analyses (or why the free market in healthcare won’t work, but free trade/reimportation of drugs might), and on the sad downward spiral of the editorial function at THCB:

What the hell is going on? Are you turning your Blog over to free-market assholes ideologues? What’s next, changing the name from THCB to SSOB (Softer Side of Bush)? Who are your recent contributors, physicians? As many times as I’ve told you, you still don’t seem to get it. Whenever a physician says anything involving money, presume until proven otherwise that his/her motives are venality and avarice. It is not for nothing that pharmaceutical reps (i.e., salaried corrupters) refer to the physicians in their territories as “my whores.”

Well it’s a slow morning, so let me again show how your new contributors’ brains are on drugs.

1. The market is the true faith of right-wingers.
The bedrock premise of your poison pen jackals consists of their belief that the market will remedy all the ills of our healthcare system. Are drug prices and health insurance premiums too high? Is access too limited and quality too disparate? The market in its omniscient wisdom will cure all. Were it only so.

Healthcare in the US is such a corrupt racket that it actually would improve if it moved to either a more socialized or a more genuine market system. Several endemic factors, however, make the idea of a self-correcting market system little more than a dream of the great beyond. Contrary to the requirement of multitudinous producers, none of whom can affect prices, most of the manufacturing markets (drugs, diagnostic and therapeutic devices) are oligopolies. Competition among them is thwarted by an anti-competitive, patent system. The top of the labor component, physicians, is a market-snuffing guild that defies supply and demand — a higher concentration of physicians in a geographic area drives up their fees, rather than the converse. The distribution of knowledge among component segments of the healthcare system is wildly asymmetrical, something that allows physicians (and manufacturers who promote to these dishonest brokers) to enjoy an inherent, conflict-of-interest position. I could go on, but suffice it to say that US healthcare can never be more than a Frankenstein’s monster version of a market system.

2. A single payer system inevitably produces rationing that reduces the access and quality of healthcare.
This is ultimate fright wig that greedheads pull out of the closet to discourage a more centralized government planning and paying role. Those poor, neglected Canadians. They live longer than us, they suffer lower rates of infant mortality, and their other indices of health quality are better than ours. The US healthcare system is so demonstrably superior that we pay more per capita for healthcare than any country in the world but our rank in terms of results places us 12th or 14th.

3. We should clamp down on reimportation because the pharmaceutical industry’s charity programs are all we need to provide drugs at affordable prices.
…and the Easter bunny puts quarters underneath your pillow when you lose a tooth. Shame on you, Matthew, for recirculating this garbage. Didn’t a recent posting of yours link to a study that showed the thorough inadequacy of the drug company cards? Why are you trying to court favor with these theocratic fascists? They have enough outlets of their own.

4. Reimportation brings in dangerous drugs.
That’s pure fiction, but if your Dick Cheney-Zell Miller contributors suggest that it’s inefficient for a large segment of the US population to receive its medications through Canada and the UK, their observation about a dog walking on four legs is hardly worthwhile. If the drug supply of a country with high quality standards becomes problematic because of sales back to the US, one of their politicians will relieve the supply problem without choking off a source of domestic profits by invoking compulsory licensing, i.e., breaking the patents and allowing the production of rigorously monitored generics.

Instead of trying to strong-arm other countries into paying what your greedheads call “their fair share,” Big Pharma and its US government lackeys will have to learn that they can still do very well by trading away price in return for added volume. I know that malefactors of great wealth seldom relinquish their cartels voluntarily, so Big Pharma will be brought kicking and screaming into some new realities. In the meanwhile, the sophistry and plutocratic rationalization (i.e., bullshit) for exorbitant pricing that one of your posters throws around (an “insurance policy” against “an increasingly hostile and unpredictable global regulatory environment”) is nauseating.

5. US drug prices are actually lower than Canada’s.
Tell your right-wing posters to kiss my colitis-scented ass. If I’m not mistaken, didn’t you also have a prior posting that exposed such PhRMA-sponsored drivel for the fraud that it is? If I remember correctly, they played fast and loose with generic products so that their results were not an apples-to-apples comparison. If one compares the prices of branded drugs in the two countries, the Canadian prices are 30%-50% cheaper.

If my tone seems overly hostile, it reflects my sorrow at the abuse you’ve permitted these recent posters to inflict on THCB. Over the years THCB has been an unfailing source of clear thinking and truth about a subject regularly obscured by lowlifes. Why now, of all times, would you bring this vermin in the back door?

POLICY: International comparisons, or “How does Japan do it?” revisited

Prompted by a couple of posts from my favorite medical bloggers Robert Centor at Medrants and Sydney Smith at Medpundit, I’ve gone back to my old files (and I mean old). When I was a grad student I spent a lot of time looking at the Japanese health care system, and by now THCB readers know that I’ve spent enough time looking at Canada’s and the UK‘s to be dangerous….

MedRants had this to say in a longer article about private medicine in the UK earlier this week:

The BMJ has run two articles to support the NHS. I would argue that these articles are far from objective. I often rant about the deficiencies in our system. We could certainly use our resources more efficiently. But our system trumps the NHS regularly. Regardless of payor status, if you are truly sick, our system responds. We could do a better job supporting primary care – but even here we trump the NHS

Meanwhile Sydney had rather more vicious things to say about Japan and John Kerry (which are connected in her mind by more than by their first initial):

Single Payer Systems: Japanese doctors are in dire straits:

Doctors in Japan have warned that there could be an exodus from the medical profession unless the of health and welfare ministry increases the fixed fees that doctors receive for treating patients. The ministry–in Tokyo–sets the sums that doctors and hospitals are reimbursed for consultations, treatment, and operations by the country’s social security system. But the Japanese Medical Association says that hundreds of hospitals and general practice clinics are now facing financial ruin because they are being forced to rely on very low, government fixed prices for their income. The situation has become critical, they say, because the cost of treating patients is soaring while the fees have continued to languish at a low level for decades.

The Kerry plan, alive and not-so-well in Japan.


Much as I respect these two bloggers for their writing, not least while they both keep up full time medical practices, sometimes they need to be called on what they say. Particularly when it’s not true.

Robert’s claim that the US trumps the UK may be true in lots of categories but ignores two vital facts.

First, in many ways the UK absolutely trumps the US on primary care. Every UK citizen has a dedicated primary care doctor who is broadly responsible for their overall care. While there are many problems with that system and it does restrict access to expensive specialists and technology, it alleviates the problems both of Americans who do not have access to primary care–especially the uninsured– and that of those patients on dangerous polypharmacy regimens who end up on those dangerous drug combinations by doctor shopping. Virtually all British GPs have computer systems that track their patients’ care. They can tell you pretty instantly which patients are on what drugs, they get reminders out for screenings and tests for things like diabetic eye exams, and since this year, they are actually getting paid for performing to accepted standards. For a variety of reasons this just doesn’t exist in more than a tiny minority of cases in the US. I find it hard to believe that we’re “trumping the UK” in primary care.

Secondly, even if we were trumping the UK, we’re doing it at three times the cost. So at a relative pay for performance level, we’re not doing well at all. But then again our doctors get paid much better.

And apparently physician pay is of great interest to Medpundit Sydney Smith, so much so that she’s upset about its apparent collapse in Japan. Syd should save her tears and perhaps brush up on her language skills and put in for a transfer from Ohio to Osaka.

Japanese private doctors are the highest paid in the world. They are the only ones that make more than Americans. Most of the salary data that’s available conflates this by usually reflecting the salaries of hospital based physicians, who tend to work for the government. The majority of Japanese doctors are independent and run their own clinics. How this works is a little complicated. They also tend to own small hospitals attached to their clinics, and in the Japanese fee-schedule, which is the equivalent of a Medicare-fee-schedule for all, there is no distinction between physician and hospital fees, because hospitals were traditionally extensions of physicians’ practices, as were pharmacies. Hence physicians also dispense (and of course prescribe) drugs. The end result of this was that average earnings for private Japanese physicians in the early 1990s were much higher than those of American physicians. Unfortunately I’m dragging this out of my memory bank (as I don’t have the OECD or Japanese publications available), but my recollection was that it averaged around $300,000 a year back then.

Now there are plenty of other little wrinkles in this, such as the fact that although for-profit hospital chains are banned, there were in fact several chains of clinics owned by wealth physician families (shades of HCA). The Japanese Medical Association, which is the organization complaining about the latest government price reductions, was for years the most powerful force in Japanese medicine, and a relatively much more powerful player in national politics there than the AMA is here. For example some of the early meetings during which the dominant Liberal Democratic party was formed were hosted by the long-time JMA president Taro Takemi. The JMA of course represents mostly these private doctors.

Meanwhile the Ministry of Health and Welfare like other government bureaucracies in Japan sets policy to a much, much greater extent than elected politicians. Over time MHW in Japan put in place several structures that governed the system. They limited the number of physicians in practice. They instituted a single unified fee-schedule that covered every insurer (and tends to reward high-volume but low intensity medicine such as Rx and diagnostics over surgery). That’s right, there is no single payer in Japan, it’s predominantly an employer-based system, but there is a single unified fee-schedule controlled by the Ministry. And of course the JMA and the Ministry are going to fight over that–Duh! But you’d do well not to listen to the rhetoric of just one side in that negotiation. There are some other wrinkles, such as in 1960 the municipal system for the indigent and elderly was expanded so that there are no longer uninsured in Japan, and then in the 1970s a transfer tax was introduced so that the employer groups had to subsidize the public system based on the age of their members.

This was all completed by a slow evolution over time, but the result was that most Japanese kept both the employer based insurance scheme that they were familiar with, and the physicians and providers kept the same format they knew well. So universal multi-payer insurance with free choice of doctor can exist, and can also exist at a reasonable cost. Not much of that is in the Kerry plan, but none of it is in the Bush “plan”.

If you have Health Affairs access, it’s worth reading the article by long term observers of the Japanese scene, Ikegami and Campbell, which details how costs were constrained in the system during the long recession of the 1990s, and even reduced by careful adjustments to the fee schedule and the introduction of user fees. The discussions about these changes were well under way when I was working with health ministry officials in 1991. That they weren’t introduced until 1997 shows the patience of the bureaucrats–a luxury of the Japanese political system. But there is also a sense of noblesse oblige, which the Japanese actually had beaten into them by the New Deal Democrats who ran the initial post-war occupation. One quote from Ikegami and Campbell is well worth pulling out:

Any system of universal health care coverage requires cross-subsidies from the healthier and wealthier segments of the population. Political resistance is inevitable and will intensify in a sour economy. Japan seems to be improvising piecemeal structural reforms to deal with these pressures. However, if the past is any indication of the future, these reforms are likely to be in the direction of more equality, which will be in line with reforms in Europe and stand in marked contrast to those in the United States.

Maybe that sounds like the Kerry plan, but nothing much else about the Japanese health care system does. Adopting something like the Japanese system, unlike the Canadian and British systems, wouldn’t require too much realignment of the existing US system, but it would require a redistribution from the rich and healthy to the poor and sick. That currently appears to be beyond us as a nation.

PHARMA/POLICY: A couple of views on single payer and reimportation, by Terry Nugent & Joe Crea

Today THCB gets turned over to some contributors who may not agree with me on much but do have sensible arguments. First off Terry Nugent wasn’t too impressed by the pleas of the Canadian businesses (reported by Paul Krugman) echoed by their US counterparts about getting health care off their banks onto that of the government. Terry writes:

This is yet another case where what’s good for GM may not be good for the country. Of course big business would like to unload its healthcare costs on the taxpayer. But one wonders why Canadian officials are forced to cite this benefit to big business to the supposed beneficiaries of Canadian monopsony–the proverbial little guy. It’s because like all politicians they’ve written checks they can’t cash.

What if there were only one car company or one grocery store or one clothing emporium? You would take what you get, like the old Soviet GUM store. That’s how it is with Canadian healthcare. If you done like it, lump it. The safety valve is the land of the free south of the border.

If we go single payer, you will see Medicaid-like rationing because gutless politicians will make Social Security like promises without raising taxes to pay the freight.

Nonetheless, the system is imperfect and needs to be improved. Kerry, Clinton, and Frist have some good ideas. Bush has some too. But what makes America different from the rest of the world is what makes her great–free enterprise and free speech. Let’s not forget that. Perhaps, as in Britain, the world ought to change to become more like us.

And then in response to my piece on the way out
for pharma companies
Terry writes this on reimportation:


Reimportation is just a straw man for price controls. Here in the State of Illinois, USA, our governor and his pal Rahm Emanuel (a Democratic Congressperson and once and future Clinton operative) are having great fun setting up a reimportation scheme that will allow intrepid residents to personally import drugs from Ireland and the UK. This plan has a few flaws–e.g., it’s limited to 100 drugs, it’s borderline illegal domestically and internationally, it’s subject to pharma supply constraints, there are labeling issues, etc.

But what’s nice about it is that it doesn’t cost the quasi-bankrupt state government a dime and it makes great political hay with the unsuspecting electorate. Meanwhile, the state is being sued for violating federal law by massively underfunding Medicaid, which actually does pay for prescription drugs for those who need them. The hypocrisy involved with this sophistry boggles the mind.

What the industry should do is publicize its own access programs for the uninsured and economically needy, and expose charlatans like our governor for the political opportunists that they are. Based on a recent FDA study of prescriptions ordered from sites linked to the State of Wisconsin Web site, I think there is more of a safety issue here than most informed observers suspected. As the companies squeeze Canadian supplies based on diversion, the Canadian outlets are reaching out internationally for supply. Who’s to say they won’t compromise their standards to take advantage of the windfall business they are getting from the US with the free promotion provided by the sovereign states? As time goes by, I believe safety will become more and more of an issue, and the states that promote this route will potentially assume more and more liability for adverse outcomes. Now those drugs don’t look so cheap, do they? Especially when you can in some cases get a better deal at Costco.

And then we get a new piece on the same topic from new contributor Joe Crea. Joe had a version of this letter published in the Moonie Washington Times, but it was so brutally edited that he asked me to give the unexpurgated version a forum.

The oft quoted examples of U.S. drug prices being several times higher than those in Canada is misleading. The reports that make this claim “cherry-pick” the top selling brand-name drugs only, and value them at AWP (full price) in order to suit their agendas. No doubt that if you choose the most demanded doses of the most demanded brand-name drugs and only look at AWP (which relatively few people pay), and compare them to controlled prices in Canada, this disparity indeed exists. However, this is analogous to comparing the price of cars, or any other product, based on “sticker price” rather than what is actually paid by consumers.

The more disturbing matter is that this demagoguery continues to go popularly unchallenged, and now has become lore. A study by Patricia Danzon at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School compared a representative sample of all drugs in nine countries, and adjusted for pertinent variables including relative purchasing power (apples-to-apples); this true economic analysis showed, in particular, that Canada’s prices were generally 4% higher than those in the U.S.

Another issue, reimportation, or parallel trade, of pharmaceuticals is feasible and should be legal in a free market, but: 1) Even in Europe, where reimportation is legal, most countries get less than 10% of their drugs this way (of course, price and practice controls make it less efficient), 2) About 10% of the U.S. demand would exhaust Canada’s entire drug supply, 3) Not all drugs from Canada originate in the U.S., hence 4) We would have to legislate reciprocal licensing agreements with other countries as exist in the E.U. whereby foreign testing, manufacturing, and distribution standards would have to be equivalent to those in the U.S. Frequently, either theirs would have to be raised, ours lowered, or both.

Thirdly, regardless of whether pharmaceutical companies spend too much on marketing, the fact is, at least in part, that the refusal by other countries to help pay for research and development is what allows them to fix prices. The pharmaceutical sector does have larger profit margins than other industrial sectors; however, this is not prima facia evidence of price gouging, but an insurance policy against future costs in an increasingly hostile and unpredictable global regulatory environment. Like it or not, it is this subsidization of innovation and profit by U.S. and, frankly, Japanese consumers that allows for newer if not always better drugs to come to market. Only about 1 in 3 patented drugs ever recover their full investment, hence the reliance on “blockbuster drugs”. Granted about half of that investment is opportunity costs, which is legitimate, as in any other industry. As can be seen, to the extent that prices are high in the U.S., it is a function of more than just profit motive, despite what most wish to believe- and don’t even get me started on intellectual property rights (patents).

In economic terms, a major driver of these price differentials (apart from government interventions) is consumer demand. While policy and the markets continue to grapple, there are two easy ways to decrease drug expenditures: insist on generic drugs whenever feasible (which is most of the time), and when you receive a prescription or service, ask your physician, “Is this the most cost-effective treatment?” It is such consumerism and the adoption of evidence-based practices that will most affect health care costs, along with prudent lifestyle choices.

In the long run, it will be market demand vis-à-vis consumer behavior and revealed preferences that determine health care costs. Until we stop agreeing to more expensive drugs and services that provide little in return, and accept unaccountable tort and inefficient regulatory systems, we will continue to get what we pay for.

These arguments will run and run, but as with everything the truth is in a murky place in the middle. It is though a pity that big pharma’s advocates have to be individuals writing in THCB, while the head of PhRMA is writing letters about me-too drugs for his mother to the LA Times.

QUALITY/PHARMA: Chemosensitivity Testing and its relation to the Chemotherapy Drug Concession, by Greg Pawelski

Contributor Gregory Pawelski is back with another look at the chemotherapy market. He’s writing about a wrinkle in the use of chemo drugs that has some big implications. The Sept 1 Press release at this site has the science behind the issue. I’m in no position to judge any of the science being disputed, but the implications for pharma, Medicare, insurers, the taxpayer and oncologists are obvious.

Without information provided by Chemosensitivity Testing (assay-testing), oncologists have the freedom to choose between a multiple of different drug regimens, all of which have approximately the same probability of working. Some of these regimens are highly profitable to oncologists. Other regimens are much less profitable. Assay-testing takes away a lot of this freedom to choose and narrows the selection to those drugs that have the highest probability to be successful but may have lower profitability for the oncologist. This cuts into the oncologist’s bottom line, though it benefits the patient.

Many of these less profitable regimens are oral-dose. As I reiterated in my previous article in office-based oncology practices the core activity in medical oncology is the provision of infusional chemotherapy. The entire structure of the practice revolves around this activity and is what distinguishes medical oncology from most other specialties.

The new Medicare bill offered patients benefits they did not have before. There is now “some” coverage for oral-chemotherapy drugs, which were not available before. Since April of this year, $200 million was available so that some Medicare cancer patients would have transitional coverage for these drugs, until the bill goes into full effect in 2006. Providing some compensation for oral-chemotherapy drugs was a major emphasis for a number of cancer support groups. Although some benefit was realized, more might have been achieved if ASCO (American Society of Clincial Oncology) and other groups had lobbied as much for the oral-chemotherapy drug issue as they did for office-practice expense reimbursement.

ASCO fought long and hard to retain the Chemotherapy Drug Concession and never once suggested the need for a clinical trial to show when drugs were selected with and without the presence of profit differential (which included oral-dose drugs), clinical outcomes would be the same. It is a real credit to oncologists who utilize assay-testing in their management of their cancer patients, despite the fact that their use constrained their freedom to choose and doubtlessly reduced their incomes.

Take an example of ovarian cancer. After 25 years of prospective, randomized clinical trials to identify the best treatments to give to the average patient, there has been absolutely no progress. A meta-analysis of all trials showed that there was no difference. During those 25 years, Taxol came along. Two large clinical trials showed that Taxol/Platinum combinations were better than single platinum regimen. And Taxol became one of the most remunerative cancer drugs of all time. So Taxol/Platinum became “standard” therapy.

But then two more very large trials were done, showing that there was no advantage to giving Taxol/Platinum over single agent platinum (like Carboplatin). And Taxol/Platinum also wasn’t any better than another non-Taxol combination (not previously tested against Taxol/Platinum). But Taxol/Platinum remained “standard” therapy. Now that Taxol is going off patent, some academic oncology groups have (as their major ovarian cancer project) clinical trials to show that Platinum/Taxotere (a drug like Taxol, but still on patent) can now be the new “standard” therapy.

All the while doing this, ASCO is refusing to suggest clinical trials of “cell death endpoint” chemosensitivity testing, because, lacking something patentable or proprietary, all assay-testing laboratories can offer is free assays and not the millions of dollars that someone like Bristol-Myers-Squibb can offer to push its Taxotere trials.

The present system exists to serve the clinical investigators and the clinical oncologists, but not to serve the best interests of the cancer patients. I think it is time to set aside empiric one-size-fits-all treatment in favor of recognizing that breast, lung, ovarian and other forms of cancer represent heterogenous diseases, where the tumors of different patients have different responses to chemotherapy. It requires individualized treatment based on testing the individual properties of each patient’s cancer.

PHARMA: I guess GSK’s not reading THCB

A couple of days ago I posted a long piece about what big pharma might do to get itself out of the bind it’s in over reimportation. My suggestions included bending somewhat on reimportation and taking the high road on patient safety by helping to certify limited sources of imported drugs. Last week, the second biggest drugmaker GlaxoSmithkline decided to take, shall we say, an alternate approach. It’s running ads bascially echoing Jeb Bush’s point of a while back that Canadian drugs are going to kill you.

Actually if you read the ads carefully, they really are saying that drugs of unknown origin purchased over the Internet are going to kill you. So perhaps if you buy them from a certified Canadian pharmacy regulated by the Canadian government, then perhaps not only will they not kill you, but they may even be the exact same drugs as sold in American pharmacies, made in exactly the same factory in Puerto Rico or Ireland.

Pharma companies claim to think long term about their R&D. We’re not seeing a lot of evidence of long-term thinking in their current public policy stance. For instance, what if either HHS/FDA changes its rules or the bill sitting in Congress for reimportation passes before, oh say, November this year. Do they really think that the President will do something 80% of seniors oppose if the election is coming down to the wire in Florida and Pennsylvania? And if pharma loses here, what’s Plan B?

Meanwhile, talking of allegedly unsafe drugs GSK is now facing its first lawsuits over the use of Paxil in kids.

HEALTH PLANS: The power of THCB! Ooh, can’t you just feel it…

While GSK apparently isn’t bending to my whim, the same may not be true in Oakland. The correspondent who cajoled me into writing about the Kaiser Thrive campaign points out that:

If you need some quick affirmation of your own visibility, it looks like Kaiser finally took down the Northern California Systems Diagrams from the Tripod site. I gripe about for a month: nothing. You blog on it, and two days later the problem is addressed. This of course means the link in your log entry is broken. If you still want to link to the Systems Diagrams, I have a mirror of them (I’m one of at least three people who mirrored the site, actually)

I’m not actually going to repost that link, as part of what I was interested in doing was hoping that Kaiser would tidy up its links. If you’re that keen to find the wiring diagram (and other anti-Kaiser stuff), go over to my correspondent’s site.

Meanwhile I’m going to go and lie down as all the power and influence I’m wielding is making me feel giddy….

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