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Tag: Kim Bellard

DEI Is Now a Four Letter Word

By KIM BELLARD

I’d love to be writing about something fun. Something that makes us think about things in a new way, or something exciting that will take us into the future. There are lots of such things happening, but there’s too many Orwellian actions happening that I can’t be silent about.

Diversity, we’re told, is actually a pretext for racism – against white people. Equity is foolhardy at best and pernicious at worst. Inclusion only matters if you are the “right” kind of person. “Meritocracy” is the new buzzword; we want only the “best and brightest,” with none of the lowering of standards that we’re being told comes with trying to ensure that everyone has a fair chance to prove their merits.

The Trump Administration has declared war on DEI. It has fired scores of workers whose jobs involve DEI, has asked other workers to inform on people they think may be involved in DEI, and is searching out even workers who attended diversity training (mandated or not). All that would be horrifying enough but it isn’t ending there.

Federal websites are being cleansed of any references to anything that might be construed as DEI. Pages are being edited, or taken down entirely. The NIH has ground to a halt until the appropriate authorities can ensure that no grants are being even to anything that might possibly be related to DEI. The CDC has been forced to pull papers from its researchers that are up for publication for similar review.

The Atlantic reports: “the government was, as of yesterday evening, intending to target and replace, at a minimum, several “suggested keywords”—including “pregnant people, transgender, binary, non-binary, gender, assigned at birth, binary [sic], non-binary [sic], cisgender, queer, gender identity, gender minority, anything with pronouns”—in CDC content.”

Thousands of pages of data from the CDC and Census Bureau have “disappeared,” and the same from other agencies. Health data is prominent among the missing. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, told Science: ““I knew it was going to be bad, but I didn’t know it was going to be this bad. It’s like a data apocalypse.”

Elon Musk, who has no official power yet seems to have control over government IT and the data it contains, is shutting down U.S.A.I.D., who provides almost $40b annually in health services, disaster relief, anti-poverty, and other social mission programs. Previously the Administration had shutdown, then reinstated, PEPFAR, a vital international HIV program that has been credited with saving millions of lives.

The President and his team even tried to blame last week’s Washington D.C. plane-helicopter collision on DEI.  That’s just “common sense, ok,” according to President Trump.

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Maybe AI Doesn’t Read Blueprints

By KIM BELLARD

Gosh, who knew that Jan 13 would be an AI day, with at least three major announcements about “blueprints” for its development going forward? Of course, these days every day is an AI day; trying to take in all AI-related news can be overwhelming. But before some other AI news drowns them out, I wanted to at least outline today’s announcements.

The three I’m referring to are the Biden Administration’s Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, OpenAI’s Economic Blueprint, and the UK’s AI-driven Plan for Change.  

The Biden Administration’s rules aim to preserve America’s lead in AI, stating: “it is essential that we do not offshore this critical technology and that the world’s AI runs on American rails.” It establishes who advanced chips can be sold to and how they can be used in other countries, with no restrictions on 18 key allies and partners.

It also sets limits on model weights for AI models, seeking to constrain non-preferred entities’ ability to train advanced AI models.

“The U.S. leads the world in AI now, both AI development and AI chip design, and it’s critical that we keep it that way,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a briefing with reporters ahead of Monday’s announcement

Not everyone is happy.

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You, Me, and Our Microbiome

By KIM BELLARD

You may have heard about the microbiome, that collection of microorganisms that fill the world around, and in, us. You may have had some digestive tract issues after a round of antibiotics wreaked havoc with your gut microbiome. You may have read about the rafts of research that are making it clearer that our health is directly impacted by what is going on with our microbiome. You may even take probiotics to try to encourage the health of your microbiome.

But you probably don’t realize how interconnected our microbiomes are.

Research published in Nature by Beghini, et. al., mapped microbiomes of almost 2,000 individuals in 18 scattered Honduras villages. “We found substantial evidence of microbiome sharing happening among people who are not family and who don’t live together, even after accounting for other factors like diet, water sources, and medications,” said co-lead author Francesco Beghini, a postdoctoral associate at the Yale Human Nature Lab. “In fact, microbiome sharing was the strongest predictor of people’s social relationships in the villages we studied, beyond characteristics like wealth, religion, or education.”

“Think of how different social niches form at a place like Yale,” said co-lead author Jackson Pullman. “You have friend groups centered on things like theater, or crew, or being physics majors. Our study indicates that the people composing these groups may be connected in ways we never previously thought, even through their microbiomes.”

“What’s so fascinating is that we’re so interconnected,” said Mr. Pullman. “Those connections go beyond the social level to the microbial level.”

Study senior author Nicholas Christakis, who directs the Human Nature Lab, explained that the research “reflects the ongoing pursuit of an idea we articulated in 2007, namely, that phenomena like obesity might spread not only by social contagion, but also by biological contagion, perhaps via the ordinary bacteria that inhabit human guts.” Other conditions, such as hypertension or depression, may also be spread by social transmission of the microbiome.

Professor Christakis thinks the findings are of broad importance, telling Science Alert: “We believe our findings are of generic relevance, not bound to the specific location we did this work, shedding light on how human social interactions shape the nature and impact of the microbes in our bodies.” But, he added: “The sharing of microbes per se is neither good nor bad, but the sharing of particular microbes in particular circumstances can indeed be good or bad.”

This research reminded me of 2015 research by Meadow, et. al., that suggested our microbiome doesn’t just exist in our gut, inside other parts our body, and on our skin, but that, in fact, we’re surrounded by a “personal microbial cloud.” Remember the Peanuts character Pigpen, who walked around in his personal dirt cloud? Well, that’s each of us, only instead of dirt we’re surrounded by our microbial cloud–and those clouds are easily discernable from each other.

Dr. Meadow told BBC at the time: “We expected that we would be able to detect the human microbiome in the air around a person, but we were surprised to find that we could identify most of the occupants just by sampling their microbial cloud.”

Those researchers predicted:

While indoors, we are constantly interacting with microbes other people have left behind on the chairs in which we sit, in dust we perturb, and on every surface we touch. These human-microbial interactions are in addition to the microbes our pets leave in our houses, those that blow off of tree leaves and soils, those in the food we eat and the water we drink. It is becoming increasingly clear that we have evolved with these complex microbial interactions, and that we may depend on them for our well-being (Rook, 2013). It is now apparent, given the results presented here, that the microbes we encounter include those actively emitted by other humans, including our families, coworkers, and perfect strangers.

Dr. Beghini and colleagues would agree, and further suggest that it’s not only indoors where we’re sharing microbes.

I would be remiss if I didn’t point out new research which found that our brains, far from being sterile, are host to a diverse microbiome and that impacts to it may lead to Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia.

Could we catch Alzheimer’s from someone else’s personal microbiome cloud? It’s possible. Could we prevent or even cure it by careful curation of the brain (or gut) microbiome? Again, possible.

The truth is that, despite decades of understanding that we have a microbiome, we still have a very limited understanding of what a healthy microbiome is, what causes it to not be healthy, what problems arise for us when it isn’t healthy, or what we can do to bring it (and us) to more optimal health. We’re still struggling to understand where besides our gut it plays a crucial role.

We now know that we can “share” parts of our microbiome with those around us, but not quite what the mechanisms for that are–e.g., touch, sharing objects, or having our personal clouds intersect.

We feel like we are where scientists were two hundred years ago in the early stages of the germ theory of disease. They knew germs impacted health, they even could connect some specific germs with specific diseases, they even had rudimentary interventions based on it, but much remained to be discovered. That led to vaccines, antibiotics, and other pharmaceuticals, all of which gave us “modern medicine,” but failed to anticipate the importance of the microbiome on our health.

Similarly, we’re justifiably proud of the progress we’ve made in terms of understanding our genetic structure and its impacts on our health, but fall far short of recognizing the vastly larger genetic footprint of the microbiome with which we co-exist.

A few years ago I called for “quantum theory of health”–not literally, but incorporating and surpassing “modern medicine” in the way that quantum physics upended classical physics. That kind of revolution would recognize that there is no health for us without our microbiome, and that “our microbiome” includes some portion of the microbiomes of those around us.  We talk about “personalized medicine,” but a quantum breakthrough for health would be treating each person as the symbiosis with our unique microbiome.

We won’t get to 22nd century medicine until we can assess the microbiome in which we exist and offer interventions to optimize it. I just hope we don’t have to wait until the 22nd century to achieve that.

Kim is a former emarketing exec at a major Blues plan, editor of the late & lamented Tincture.io, and now regular THCB contributor

THCB Gang Episode 146, Tuesday November 26

Joining Matthew Holt (@boltyboy) on #THCBGang on Tuesday November 26 at 1PM PT 4PM ET are THCB regular writer and ponderer of odd juxtapositions Kim Bellard (@kimbbellard); medical historian Mike Magee (@drmikemagee); and a new guest from Marsh McLennan, Employee Benefits Consultant Ryan Koo (@RyanKoo).

You can see the video below & if you’d rather listen than watch, the audio is preserved as a weekly podcast available on our iTunes & Spotify channels.

America the Schizophrenic

By KIM BELLARD

I must admit, last week’s election took me by surprise. I knew all the polls predicted a close race, but I kept telling myself that the American I believed in would not elect such a man, again, knowing full well all the things he has said and done – in his personal, professional, and political lives.  I was giving us too much credit.

Democrats might tell the public that Wall Street was hitting record highs, that GDP growth was among the best in the world, that unemployment was low, and that inflation was finally back under control, but voters didn’t believe them. For most people, the economy isn’t working.

When two-thirds of voters say the country is on the wrong track (NBC News), when almost three-quarters of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. (Gallop), when 62% of voters think the economy is weak and 48% say their personal financial situation is getting worse (Harvard CAPS/Harris) – well, threats to democracy tomorrow don’t compare to the price of eggs today.  

Let’s face it: we are on the wrong road. We’re not on a road that is good for most people. We’re not on a road that is getting us ready for the challenges and opportunities that the 21st century is bringing/is going to bring us. And we’re kidding ourselves about the America we believe in versus the America we actually live in.  Our views about our country are delusional, they’re disorganized thinking, they may even be hallucinations. I.e., they’re schizophrenic. 

For example:

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Engineers: Heal Thyselves (and Health Care)

By KIM BELLARD

The article I can’t get out of my head is one by Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal: Crises at Boeing and Intel Area National Emergency.

I’m old enough that I remember when the Boeing 707 took airline passenger travel from the prop age to the jet age. I’m old enough that I remember that we all wanted PCs with Intel chips when companies starting giving office workers their first PCs. I’ve read enough history to know the storied engineering background and achievements of both. I mean, those B-52s that have been the backbone of the U.S. Air Force bomber command for the past 70+ years: those are Boeing planes.

To younger people, though, Being is the company whose doors pop out mid-flight, or which abandons astronauts in space. When they think of Intel – oh, I’m just kidding; when younger people think about chip companies, it’s NVIDIA or TSMC. Intel’s stock is doing so badly it may get kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

So, as Mr. Ip says: “A generation ago, any list of America’s most admired manufacturers would have had Intel and Boeing near the top. Today, both are on the ropes.”

He goes on to add:

The U.S. still designs the world’s most innovative products, but is losing the knack for making them.

At the end of 1999, four of the 10 most valuable U.S. companies were manufacturers. Today, none are. The lone rising star: Tesla, which ranked 11th.

Intel and Boeing were once the gold standard in manufacturing groundbreaking products to demanding specifications with consistently high quality. Not any longer. 

What is most frustrating, Mr. Ip points out, is: “Neither fell prey to cheap foreign competition, but to their own mistakes. Their culture evolved to prioritize financial performance over engineering excellence.”

As an example, in a Blockbuster-could-have-bought-Netflix parallel, The New York Times reports that Intel could have bought NVIDIA in 2005, but the reported $20b price was considered too expensive. NVIDIA is now worth $3.5 trillion. Whoops.

Boeing’s new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, admits: “The trust in our company has eroded,” and that Boeing needs “a fundamental change in culture.” It doesn’t help that its machinists have been on strike almost 2 months, with the union rejecting Boeing’s latest offer last week. Boeing is slashing some 17,000 jobs, considering selling off its Starliner business, and trying to raise as much as $25b

Intel has also cut jobs, is trying to beef up its manufacturing through a revitalized foundry business (which some believe Intel should spin off), and has seen its stock crater (down 52% YTD), but CEO Pat Gelsinger vows: “We see the finish line in sight.”

Intel is still waiting for some $8.5b in CHIPS Act funding, “There’s been renegotiations on both sides,” Mr. Gelsinger told The New York Times. “My simple message is, ‘Let’s get it finished.’” But, as former Commerce Department official Caitlin Legacki noted: [There is fear that] Intel is going to take chips money, build an empty shell of a factory and then never actually open it, because they don’t have customers.”  Its much-hyped plants in Arizona and Ohio have both faced setbacks. 

Meanwhile, the vultures are circling: there are rumors that Samsung and Apple may want to acquire Intel.

The trouble is, which is Mr. Ip’s point, neither has any real domestic competition; if either would fail, it would throw even more of our economy to the mercy of foreign manufacturers (or, in its space business, make the U.S. even more dependent on Elon Musk’s SpaceX). That’s the national emergence he is warning about.

My point with all this is not so much to add another lament about the decline of U.S. manufacturing as to emphasize the decline of the role of engineers. Earlier this year Jerry Useem, writing in The Atlantic,  argued: “When the wave of Japanese competition finally crashed on corporate America, those best equipped to understand it—the engineers—were no longer in charge. American boardrooms had been handed over to the finance people.”   

 Mr. Useem points out that a revitalized GE “is belatedly yielding to the reality that workers on the gemba [Japanese term for the shop floor, where value is actually created] are far better at figuring out more efficient ways of making things than remote bureaucrats with spreadsheet abstractions.” That sounds a lot like what Mr. Ortberg is saying: “We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs.”

So what, you might ask, does this have to do with healthcare? 

It turns out that there is something called a healthcare engineer.

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Health Care’s Endless Loops

By KIM BELLARD

Last week the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued its final “click-to-cancel” rule, making it easier for consumers to cancel various kinds of subscriptions, such as gym memberships or streaming services. It will require enrollments to be as easy to cancel as they were to enroll.

“Too often, businesses make people jump through endless hoops just to cancel a subscription,” said Commission Chair Lina M. Khan. “The FTC’s rule will end these tricks and traps, saving Americans time and money. Nobody should be stuck paying for a service they no longer want.”

Oh, boy, Chairperson Khan: if you want to talk about jumping through endless loops, let’s talk about health care.

The FTC rule was part of its effort to modernize its 1973 Negative Option Rule. It had issued a preliminary rule in March 2023, which drew some 16,000 comments. Laura Brett, vice president of the National Advertising Division of BBB National Programs, explained the need for the rule to CNN: “(Consumers) had to jump through hoops online to find out where to cancel. Other times they might’ve been able to sign up online, but in order to cancel they had to call and talk to a representative. Other kinds of memberships required them to actually show up in person to cancel their subscription,”

The new rule is also part of a broader Biden Administration Time Is Money initiative, “a new governmentwide effort to crack down on all the ways that corporations—through excessive paperwork, hold times, and general aggravation—add unnecessary headaches and hassles to people’s days and degrade their quality of life.”

Predictably, not everyone agrees. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce called the whole Time is Money initiative a heavy-handed effort to micromanage business practices and pricing, and warned it would lead to “fewer choices, higher prices, and more headaches.”

But of course they do; I mean, if you asked an AI to create a Chamber of Commerce response to virtually any regulation, it would probably sound much like that.

Critics see politics behind the rule. In her dissent, Melissa Holyoak, one of the FTC’s two Republican commissioners, wrote: “Why the rush? There is a simple explanation. Less than a month from election day, the Chair is hurrying to finish a rule that follows through on a campaign pledge made by the Chair’s favored presidential candidate.” The same could be said of the Biden Administration’s new proposed rules to make over-the-counter birth control to be covered by insurers at no cost to patients.

Be that as it may, we all have more subscriptions than we probably really want, the gym membership scam has been going on so long that there was a Friends episode about it almost 30 years ago, and who among us hasn’t gotten caught in endless loops with supposed customer service representatives – if you can ever reach a live person – about some problem with a company?

Which leads me to health care.

Providing health care has always been complex, as physicians like to remind us, but just trying to receive health care has grown more and more complex over the past several decades (while growing drastically more expensive). Time is Money, the Biden Administration tells us, but in health care, the only people whose time is valued are the people billing us. We are, after all, patients, so we are supposed to be patient.

The FTC, and the Biden Administration more generally, has this right: Time is Money, and that’s our time and our money. The initiative specifically included healthcare – “…the unnecessary complications of dealing with health insurance companies…” – but I don’t think that goes far enough, fast enough.

I like the precept that things should be as easy to get out of as they were to get into, although I want to use that more as a parameter than a restriction in expanding the discussion to healthcare.

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You’re Not Going to Automate MY Job

By KIM BELLARD

Earlier this month U.S. dockworkers struck, for the first time in decades. Their union, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILW), was demanding a 77% pay increase, rejecting an offer of a 50% pay increase from the shipping companies. People worried about the impact on the economy, how it might impact the upcoming election, even if Christmas would be ruined. Some panic hoarding ensued.

Then, just three days later, the strike was over, with an agreement for a 60% wage increase over six years. Work resumed. Everyone’s happy right? Well, no. The agreement is only a truce until January 15, 2025. While money was certainly an issue – it always is – the real issue is automation, and the two sides are far apart on that.

Most of us aren’t dockworkers, of course, but their union’s attitude towards automation has lessons for our jobs nonetheless.

The advent of shipping containers in the 1960’s (if you haven’t read The BoxHow the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger, by Marc Levinson, I highly recommend it) made increased use of automation in the shipping industry not only possible but inevitable. The ports, the shipping companies, and the unions all knew this, and have been fighting about it ever since. Add better robots and, now, AI to the mix, and one wonders when the whole process will be automated.

Curiously, the U.S. is not a leader in this automation. Margaret Kidd, program director and associate professor of supply chain logistics at the University of Houston, told The Hill: “What most Americans don’t realize is that American exceptionalism does not exist in our port system. Our infrastructure is antiquated. Our use of automation and technology is antiquated.”

Eric Boehm of Reason agrees:

The problem is that American ports need more automation just to catch up with what’s considered normal in the rest of the world. For example, automated cranes in use at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands since the 1990s are 80 percent faster than the human-operated cranes used at the port in Oakland, California, according to an estimate by one trade publication.

The top rated U.S. port in the World Bank’s annual performance index is only 53rd.  

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Red Alert about Red Buttons

By KIM BELLARD

In a week where, say, the iconic brand Tupperware declared bankruptcy and University of Michigan researchers unveiled a squid-inspired screen that doesn’t use electronics, the most startling stories have been about, of all things, pagers and walkie-talkies.

Now, most of us don’t think much about either pagers or walkie-talkies these days, and when we do, we definitely don’t think about them exploding. But that’s what happened in Lebanon this week, in ones carried by members of Hezbollah. Scores of people were killed and thousands injured, many of them innocent bystanders. The suspicion, not officially confirmed, is that Israel engineered the explosions.

I don’t want to get into a discussion about the Middle East quagmire, and I condemn the killing of innocent civilians on either side, but what I can’t get my mind around is the tradecraft of the whole thing. This was not a casual weekend cyberattack by some guys sitting in their basements; this was a years-in-the-making, deeply embedded, carefully planned move.

A former Israeli intelligence official told WaPo that, first, intelligence agencies had to determine “what Hezbollah needs, what are its gaps, which shell companies it works with, where they are, who are the contacts,” then “you need to create an infrastructure of companies, in which one sells to another who sells to another.”  It’s not clear, for example, if Israel someone planted the devices during the manufacturing process or during the shipping, or, indeed, if its shell companies actually were the manufacturer or shipping company. 

Either way, this is some James Bond kind of shit.

The Washington Post reports that this is what Israeli officials call a “red-button” capability, “meaning a potentially devastating penetration of an adversary that can remain dormant for months if not years before being activated.” One has to wonder what other red buttons are out there.

Many have attributed the attacks to Israel’s Unit 8200, which is roughly equivalent to the NSA.  An article in Reuters described the unit as “famous for a work culture that emphasizes out-of-the-box thinking to tackle issues previously not encountered or imagined.”  Making pagers explode upon command certainly falls in that category.

If you’re thinking, well, I don’t carry either a pager or a walkie-talkie, and, in any event, I’m not a member of Hezbollah, don’t be so quick to think you are off the hook. If you use a device that is connected to the internet – be it a phone, a TV, a car, even a toaster – you might want to be wondering if it comes with a red button. And who might be in control of that button.

Just today, for example, the Biden Administration proposed a ban on Chinese software used in cars.

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We Should Learn to Have More Fun (or Vice-Versa)

By KIM BELLARD

For several years now, my North Star for thinking about innovation has been Steven Johnson’s great quote (in his delightful Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World): “You will find the future where people are having the most fun.” No, no, no, naysayers argue, inventing the future is serious business, and certainly fun is not the point of business.  Maybe they’re right, but I’m happier hoping for a future guided by a sense of fun than by one guided by P&Ls.

Well, I think I may have found an equally insightful point of view about fun, espoused by game designer Raph Koster in his 2004 book A Theory of Fun for Game Design: “Fun is just another word for learning.”

Wow.

That’s not how most of us think about learning. Learning is hard, learning is going to school, learning is taking tests, learning is something you have to do when you’re not having fun. So “fun is just another word for learning” is quite a different perspective – and one I’m very much attracted to.

I regret that it took me twenty years to discover Mr. Koster’s insight. I read it in a more current book: Kelly Clancy’s Playing With Reality: How Games Have Shaped Our World. Dr. Clancy is not a game designer; she is a neuroscientist and physicist, but she is all about play. Her book looks at games and game theory, especially how the latter has been misunderstood/misused.

We usually think of play as a waste of time, as something inherently unserious and unimportant, when, in fact, it is how our brains have evolved to learn. The problem is, we’ve turned learning into education, education into a requirement, teaching into a profession, and fun into something entirely separate. We’ve gotten it backwards.

“Play is a tool the brain uses to generate data on which to train itself, a way of building better models of the world to make better predictions,” she writes. “Games are more than an invention; they are an instinct.”  Indeed, she asserts: “Play is to intelligence as mutation is to evolution.”

Mr. Koster’s fuller quote about fun and learning is on target with this:

That’s what games are, in the end. Teachers. Fun is just another word for learning. Games teach you how aspects of reality work, how to understand yourself, how to understand the actions of others, and how to imagine.

We don’t look at our teachers as a source of fun (and many students barely look at them as a source of learning). We don’t look at schools as a place for games, except on the playground, and then only for the youngest students. We drive students to boredom, and, as Mr. Koster says, “boredom is the opposite of learning” (although, ironically, boredom may be important to creativity).  

Learning is actually fun, especially from a physiological standpoint.

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