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HEALTH PLANS: It’s blood on the streets today; but is the ride over?

Here’s the news from my FierceHealthcare newsletter on insurers’ stock prices today

Today’s earnings announcements from health plans and insurers don’t look too bad. WellPoint reported a 20 percent surge in profits yesterday, a gain that the company attributes to an increase in membership and decreased medical costs. Aetna also posted good earnings, with first quarter profits up 3.2 percent, but reported a first quarter medical cost ratio of 79.4 percent in its main commercial business. That was up from 77.9 percent a year earlier. Meanwhile, PBM Express Scripts had first quarter earnings of $104.7 million compared with $85.3 million for the same period a year ago.

Wall Street wasn’t having any of it. Aetna’s stock was down over 20 percent today as the company’s CEO Jack Rowe hands over the reins to Ron Williams and CFO Alan Bennett makes plans to retire in 2007. Express Scripts stock is down nearly 10 percent, and the rest of the health plan and PBM sector is down heavily too.

– read the article about WellPoint from the Los Angeles Times– see this Houston Chronicle article about Aetna’s stock slide – read this article from MarketWatch for more about Express Scripts

So is this finally it?  Have the plans been found out? Will we see MLRs head back into the mid-80 percents?  Should we all have shorted UNH and AET in January. Well I myself have believed that health plans have been overvalued forever….but if I’d gone short when I started saying that a few years back (like in this April 2004 column), I’d be living in a cardboard box under a freeway now. Look at what’s happened to their stock since then (the bottom orangel line is the S&P 500). Even with their recent declines they’re all up at least 50% since then and Humana is close to being up 200%:

Hi

 

HEALTH PLANS: Blue Cross of California looks like its hand was in cookie jar

There’s more from the LA Times about the Blue Cross of California case where benefits were retroactively denied. For some reason, although the case has been sealed, the Times was able to report on testimony of four BC employees.

A California Blue Cross employee testified in secret last year that the state’s largest health-plan company routinely canceled policies of sick members after looking for inconsistencies — not fraud — in their applications. Experts say, however, that state law allows only deliberate omissions or misstatements as grounds for canceling health coverage.

Given that the lawyers obviously combed through these cases, and found people like the woman denied coverage for obstetric care 2 years into her policy, this starts smelling worse and worse for Wellpoint. Health insurers are in a very vulnerable position right now. Their profits are sky-high, and far more of the premium is sticking with them than their cleints or the genreal public understands—medical loss ratios are down in the low 70s. Not to mention certain executives with their multi-million or billion dollar pay outs.

Wellpoint would be well advised to do what they can to make this case disappear very quickly. Otherwise they might start realizing that they’re in an election year and health insurers are only just above the oil and tobacco guys in the popularity stakes.

POLICY: Meanwhile, remember love story

Over at The Plank, more confirmation that “being a loony libertarian/conservative in health policy means never having to acknowledge facts that disagree with you”. After all, when you can get Fraser and PRI to send you lies for free, why bother looking at OECD, or other commie institutions like the Wall Street Journal which understand reality.

More from Ezra

POLICY/PHARMA/TECH/PHYSICIANS: The Industry Veteran thinks Uwe and McLellan are missing the point

It’s been a while since we heard from The Industry Veteran, but the dialogue between Mark McClellan and Uwe Reinhardt I reported on at WHCC last week did raise his hackles. I love Uwe’s analysis and think McLellan is very sensible (though suffering from obvious political restraints). But the Veteran didn’t exactly see it that way. Here’s his sense of what ‘s wrong with health care and how to fix it.

The dialogue you reported between Mark McClellan and Uwe Reinhardt was hugely disappointing as both appeared more intent on glad-handing each other than identifying culprits in the health care system. I offer the following as a useful rule of thumb for THCB readers: whenever someone says more IT represents a principal solution to a better health care system, the red light should flash on one’s shit detector.As uncle Marcus Aurelius advised, let’s return to first principles. Assuming THCB wishes to address the big issues and not turn into a blog for techie nerds, the problems of health care cost, quality and access in the U.S. result from some basic factors. The first of these is that there are too many middle men extracting too much profit (or, in Marshallian terms, too much economic rent) from the system. Among these, third-party payers are both pernicious and dispensable. Most analysts euphemistically classify payers and the efforts of other sectors to deal with them as “administrative costs.” It seems I’ve been seeing these administrative costs pegged at 25-30% of the health care bill for the past twenty years. Since Bush’s millenarian-oil junta has been running the country, I would guess that figure to be substantially higher because payments to providers have been tapering while premiums keep escalating. Given that the administrative costs for Medicare are approximately 2%, it appears self-evident that the current system, based on employers and insurance companies, should appeal only to Reagan-Bush types who consider the proper role of government to be one of handmaiden to business.Within the provider segment, specialist physicians are another extortionist bunch. There is simply no defensible reason for every mother’s doctor-son to expect an annual income between a quarter-million dollars and $650,000. Do I hear in the background, diminuendo, the arachnid voices of techie wonks crying for tactical proposals in lieu of venting and ideology? Sink your incisors into these. (1) Use relative value reimbursement scales to promote a systematic de-skilling. (2) Increase the labor supply in the medical specialties with U.S. citizens who graduate from foreign medical schools. (3) Feminize the medical profession by elevating nurse practitioners and using staff-model and other arrangements that permit 9-to-5 shift work.Manufacturers, particularly in pharmaceuticals, are due their reproach as parasitic middle men. The European countries routinely use reference pricing to help keep them in line and health care’s Iron Triangle of cost-access-quality does not appear worse there than here. In fact the WHO rates U.S. health care as thirty-something in world while France receives the number one spot.Now you’re probably correct, Matthew, in pointing out that the public opinion polls on health care have to show a larger percentage of people expressing a vehement discontent with the system over a sustained period before substantive change can occur. To foster that attitude, I humbly advise interested parties to hammer away at the big issues instead of creating diversions and wasting time with minor tributaries such as IT. I believe there is sufficient greed to expose, enough contradictions to raise and tragedies to highlight, all of which can help prepare the public mood. The drama that can affect public attention, however, seldom resides in the IT department

POLICY: Leif Haase on Many Roads to Rome?

I’m on the east coast, and have been pottering around meeting various people learning a little. One of the most interesting was Leif Wellington Haase who is the health policy guru at the Century Foundation. Over a very nice lunch (Thanks Leif!) he explained to me that the Foundation, which used to be more liberal social club than active policy shop, is very much shedding that image. It’s now putting together a task force that will under-pin a rational debate over what future universal coverage looks like. Rational is code here for distinguishing itself from the HSA fantasists who don’t believe in the rationale for universal coverage

Leif’s proposal, which is not a million miles from the Fuchs/Ezekiel proposal, is summarized here. It’s intended to be a call to action to everyone to get involved in the debate before we end up in the healthcare equivalent Brazil or Cambodia (take your pick). How that fits into the wider rational debate in the universal coverage world, Leif explains here — Universal Coverage: Many Roads to Rome?

…And he’s yet another person telling me to write a book <sigh>

TECH: “Connected Healthcare ” Panel on May 4th

Those of you in or near NYC on May 4 might be interested in this panel, which Stephanie Cion, another overachieving grad student, asked me to publicize. It has the advantage of being short, having a great cast of speakers, and being cheap (or free if you gave MIT most of your parent’s disposable income during your youth). Here’s Stephanie’s promo blurb:

The MIT Enterprise Forum, a great organization known for putting to together useful events on technology and new business opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs has announced they are holding an impressive panel on Connected Healthcare next month to discuss medical technology and communications. The cost to attendees is merely $50!

Topic: The newly coined phrase “Connected Healthcare” — and the related concept “Healthcare Unbound” — refers to communication and medical technology in, on and around the body that enables healthcare professionals to monitor and care for patients outside of the clinical setting. The market for “Connected Healthcare” is estimated “to reach $34 billion by 2015.” Join our live panel of experts from various segments of healthcare and technology who will discuss the convergence of communication technology and medical devices and provide live demonstrations. The panel will focus on the following issues:

* What are the potential cost savings for expensive chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes?* How can businesses tap into the $1 trillion health and wellness market as baby boomers age ?* Who will pay for “Connected Healthcare”?* How are businesses positioning themselves to participate and profit in this field?* Where are the most lucrative venture and investment opportunities?

There are quite a few important speakers attending, including:

  • Elizabeth Boehm – Principal Analyst, Healthcare & Life Sciences, Forrester Research
  • George Boyajian, Ph.D – EVP, Strategy and R&D, Living Independently Group
  • William Burkoth – Senior Manager, Strategic Investments Group, Pfizer
  • Donald Jones – Vice President, Business Development, Healthcare, Qualcomm
  • Douglas McClure – Corporate Manager, Technology Services, Partners Telemedicine
  • Astro Teller

    , Ph.D – CEO, Body Media

BLOGS: Comments CAPTCHAs

I’m afraid that a continued and increasing dribble of comment spam has forced me to put on the CAPTCHA (completely automated public Turing test to tell computers and humans apart) task so that a commenter needs to fill it in the little box when they’re done. If you have a typekey identity, you wont need to.

Sorry, but I’ve been spending way too much time cleaning out junk, and it only takes a few seconds to help us all out by filling in the box.

If you object very loudly, I’ll reconsider, but I think most people would prefer it this way. (Comments?)

 

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