The super connector and super intelligent Emily Peters, (who has quite her own patient adventure story–tl:dr GO GIVE BLOOD) and has written several books including Artists Remaking Medicine, is working on another one called Money Remaking Medicine. She invited me on a show called the Positive Deviants Detectives which is kind of a book club called the Health Care Reinvention Collaborative all hosted by the very wise Dawn Ellison. We talked and the audience joined in about the history of money, HMOs and more in health care and whether we can re-fangle it to make the money do the right things. Matthew Holt
Steve Brown, CureWise — AI for patients
Steve Brown is a genuine digital health OG. Starting with video games for kids with diabetes he eventually turned Health Hero into one of the first disease management companies. It was used in the VA to manage patients at home with CHF, diabetes and more and eventually sold to Bosch. Steve left health care for 15 years, but then at the start of this year had his own health issue. Which turned out to be cancer. He turned to AI and has built an amazing early stage patient facing AI doctor, called CureWise. It essentially has turned LLMs into multiple doctors. He gave me a full and fascinating demo. This is clearly the future but it’s also the present for Steve who is patient zero and the first user as well as the CEO. Amazing stuff. — Matthew Holt
Have Some Water – While You Can
By KIM BELLARD
We live on a water world (despite its name being “Earth”). We, like all life on earth, are water creatures, basically just sacks of water. We drink it, in its various forms (plain, sparking, carbonated, sweetened, flavored, even transformed by a mammal into milk). We use it to grow our crops, to flush our toilets, to water our lawns, to frack our oil, to name a few uses. Yet 97% of Earth’s water is salt water, which we can’t drink without expensive desalination efforts, and most of the 3% that is freshwater is locked up – in icebergs, glaciers, the ground and the atmosphere, etc. Our civilization survives on that sliver of freshwater that remains available to us.
Unfortunately, we’re rapidly diminishing even that sliver. And that has even worse implications than you probably realize.
A new study, published in Science Advances, utilizes satellite images (NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO) to map what’s been happening to the freshwater in the “terrestrial water storage” or TWS we blithely use. Their critical finding: “the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002.”
Indeed: “Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere…75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water.” The dry parts of the world are getting drier faster than the wet parts are getting wetter.
“It is striking how much nonrenewable water we are losing,” said Hrishikesh A. Chandanpurkar, lead author of the study and a research scientist for Arizona State University. “Glaciers and deep groundwater are sort of ancient trust funds. Instead of using them only in times of need, such as a prolonged drought, we are taking them for granted. Also, we are not trying to replenish the groundwater systems during wet years and thus edging towards an imminent freshwater bankruptcy.”
As much as we worry about shrinking glaciers, the study found that 68% of the loss of TWS came from groundwater, and – this is the part you probably didn’t realize – this loss contributes more to rising sea levels than the melting of glaciers and ice caps.
This is not a blip. This is not a fluke. This is a long-term, accelerating trend. The paper concludes: “Combined, they [the findings] send perhaps the direst message on the impact of climate change to date. The continents are drying, freshwater availability is shrinking, and sea level rise is accelerating.”
Yikes.
“These findings send perhaps the most alarming message yet about the impact of climate change on our water resources,” said Jay Famiglietti, the study’s principal investigator and a professor with the ASU School of Sustainability.
We’ve known for a long time that we were depleting our aquifers, and either ignored the problem or waved off the problem to future generations. The researchers have grim news: “In many places where groundwater is being depleted, it will not be replenished on human timescales.” Once they’re gone, we won’t see them replenished in our lifetimes, our children’s lifetimes, or our grandchildren’s lifetimes.
Professor Famiglietti is frank: “The consequences of continued groundwater overuse could undermine food and water security for billions of people around the world. This is an ‘all-hands-on-deck’ moment — we need immediate action on global water security.”
If all this still seems abstract to you, I’ll point out that much of Iran is facing severe water shortages, and may be forced to relocate its capital. Kabul is in similar straits. Mexico City almost ran out of water a year ago and remains in crisis. Water scarcity is a problem for as much as a third of the EU, such as in Spain and Greece. And the ongoing drought in America’s Southwest isn’t going any anytime soon.
Continue reading…V Bento, Sword Health
I got to interview V Bento the CEO of Sword Health. We had been in a little back and forth on Linkedin but this was the first time we actually had talked. Almost all of their business is in the US in MSK but they have recently added mental health and V is not shy in talking about the other areas they are heading into. They have had some controversial moments. They just raised money at an amount ($4 Bn) higher than larger rival MSK health outfit Hinge Health is trading at on the public market. Then I used it a year ago via Blue Shield of CA, and found it effective but expensive. Finally, there’s a lawsuit from the folks at Aging 2.0 who claim that they are owed equity from an accelerator Sword was part of in the 2010s.
V talked about all of these, specifically about how they are now charging their clients, and why he thinks they are worth their valuation–which apparently has no special terms for general Catalyst which invested at that valuation. He wouldn’t talk about the lawsuit other than to say he was happy with his position. But we had a good discussion and got to hear about their new tech, including their use of AI, and why V is so bullish on the company moving beyond MSK. Matthew Holt
Gen Z Should Give Health Care a Stare
By KIM BELLARD
Last I knew, Gen Z showed its disdain for older generations with a dismissive “OK Boomer.” But that was a few years ago, and now, it appears, Gen Z doesn’t even bother with that; instead, there is what has become known as the “Gen Z stare.” You’ve probably seen it, and may have even experienced it. TikTok influence Janaye defines it thusly: “The Gen Z stare is specifically when somebody does not respond or just doesn’t have any reaction in a situation where a response is either required or just reasonable.”
It’s been blowing up on social media and the media over the last few days, so it apparently has tapped into the social zeitgeist. It’s often been attributed to customer service interactions, either as a worker receiving an inane request or as a customer facing an undue burden.
You can already see why I link it to healthcare.
It’s off-putting because, as Michael Poulin, an associate psychology professor at the University at Buffalo, told Vox: “People interpret it as social rejection. There is nothing that, as social beings, humans hate more. There’s nothing that stings more than rejection.”
Many attribute the Gen Z stare to Gen Z’s lack of social experience caused by isolation during the pandemic, exacerbated by too much screen time generally. Jess Rauchberg, an assistant professor of communication technologies at Seton Hall University, would tend to agree, telling NBC News: “I think we are starting to really see the long-term effects of constant digital media use, right?”
Similarly, Tara Well, a professor at Bernard College, told Vox: “It’s sort of almost as though they’re looking at me as though they’re watching a TV show… We don’t see them as dynamic people who are interacting with us, who are full of thoughts and emotions and living, breathing people. If you see people as just ideas or images, you look at them like you’re paging through an old magazine or scrolling on your phone.”
Millennial Jarrod Benson told The Washington Post: “It’s like they’re always watching a video, and they don’t feel like the need to respond. Small talk is painful. We know this. But we do it because it’s socially acceptable and almost socially required, right? But they won’t do it.” Zoomer (as those of Gen Z are known) Jordan MacIsaac speculated to The New York Times: “It almost feels like a resurgence of stranger danger. Like, people just don’t know how to make small talk or interact with people they don’t know.”
On the other hand, TikTok creator Dametrius “Jet” Latham claims: “I don’t think it’s a lack of social skills. I just think we don’t care,” which might be more to the point.
ABC News cited some customer service examples that deserved a Gen Z stare: “I’ve been asked to make somebody’s iced tea less cold. I’ve been asked to give them a cheeseburger without the cheese, but keep the pepper jack of it all.” As Zoomer Efe Ahworegba put it: “The Gen Z stare is basically us saying the customer is not always right.”
Ms. Ahworegba doesn’t think a Gen Z stare doesn’t reflect Gen Z’s lack of social skills, but rather: “They just didn’t want to communicate with someone who’s not using their own brain cells.” As some Zoomers say, it is “the look they give people who are being stupid while waiting for them to realize they are being stupid.”
Still, as one commenter on TikTok wrote: “I think it’s hilarious that Gen Z thinks they’re the first generation to ever deal with stupidity or difficult customers, and that’s how they justify the fact that they just disassociate and mindlessly stare into space whenever they are confronted with a difficult or confusing situation, instead of immediately engaging in the situation like every other generation has ever done before them lol.”
Or perhaps this is much ado about nothing. Professor Poulin noted: “To some degree, it’s a comforting myth that all of us who are adults — who’ve gotten beyond the teens and 20s — that we tell ourselves that we were surely better than that.” When it comes to displaying socially acceptable behavior, he says: “This isn’t the first generation to fail.”
———
Interestingly, Gen Z is already skeptical of our traditional healthcare system, as well they might be.
Continue reading…China Goes “Democratic” on Artificial General Intelligence
By MIKE MAGEE
Last week, following a visit to the White House, Jensen Huang instigated a wholesale reversal of policy from Trump who was blocking Nvidia sales of its H20 chip to China. What did Jensen say?
We can only guess of course. But he likely shared the results of a proprietary report from noted AI researchers at Digital Science that suggested an immediate policy course correction was critical. Beyond the fact that over 50% of all AI researchers are currently based in China, their study documented that “In 2000, China-based scholars produced just 671 AI papers, but in 2024 their 23,695 AI-related publications topped the combined output of the United States (6378), the United Kingdom (2747), and the European Union (10,055).”
David Hook, CEO of Digital Science was declarative in the opening of the report, stating “U.S. influence in AI research is declining, with China now dominating.”
China now supports about 30,000 AI researchers compared to only 10,000 in the US. And that number is shrinking thanks to US tariff and visa shenanigans, and overt attacks by the administration on our premier academic institutions.
Economics professors David Autor (MIT) and Gordon Hanson (Harvard), known for “their research into how globalization, and especially the rise of China, reshaped the American labor market,” famously described the elements of “China Shock 1.0.” in 2013. It was “a singular process—China’s late-1970s transition from Maoist central planning to a market economy, which rapidly moved the country’s labor and capital from collective rural farms to capitalist urban factories.”
As a result, a quarter of all US manufacturing jobs disappeared between 1999 and 2007. Today China’s manufacturing work force tops 100 million, dwarfing the US manufacturing job count of 13 million. Those numbers peaked a decade ago when China’s supply of low cost labor peaked. But these days China is clearly looking forward while this administration and its advisers are being left behind in the rear view mirror.
Welcome to “China Shock 2.0” wrote Autor and Hanson in a recent New York Times editorial. But this time, their leaders are focusing on “key technologies of the 21st century…(and it) will last for as long as China has the resources, patience and discipline to compete fiercely.”
The highly respected Australian Strategic Policy Institute, funded by their Defense Department, has been tracking the volume of published innovative technology research in the US and China for over a quarter century. They see this as a measure of experts opinion where the greatest innovations are originating. In 2007, we led China in the prior four years in 60 of 64 “frontier technologies.”
Two decades later, the table has flipped, with China well ahead of the US in 57 of 64 categories measured.
Continue reading…Healthcare AI: What’s in your chatbot?
By OWEN TRIPP
So much of the early energy around generative AI in healthcare has been geared toward speed and efficiency: freeing doctors from admin tasks, automating patient intake, streamlining paperwork-heavy pain points. This is all necessary and helpful, but much of it boils down to established players optimizing the existing system to suit their own needs. As consumers flock to AI for healthcare, their questions and needs highlight the limits of off-the-shelf bots — and the pent-up demand for no judgment, all-in-one, personalized help.
Transforming healthcare so that it actually works for patients and consumers — ahem, people — requires more than incumbent-led efficiency. Generative AI will be game-changing, no doubt, but only when it’s embedded and embraced as a trusted guide that steers people toward high-quality care and empowers them to make better decisions.
Upgrading Dr. Google
From my vantage point, virtual agents and assistants are the most important frontier in healthcare AI right now — and in people-centered healthcare, period. Tens of millions of people (especially younger generations) are already leaning into AI for help with health and wellness, testing the waters of off-the-shelf apps and tools like ChatGPT.
You see, people realize that AI isn’t just for polishing emails and vacation itineraries. One-fifth of adults consult AI chatbots with health questions at least once a month (and given AI’s unprecedented adoption curve, we can assume that number is rising by the day). For most, AI serves as a souped-up, user-friendly alternative to search engines. It offers people a more engaging way to research symptoms, explore potential treatments, and determine if they actually need to see a doctor or head to urgent care.
But people are going a lot deeper with chatbots than they ever did with Dr. Google or WebMD. Beyond the usual self-triage, the numbers tell us that up to 40% of ChatGPT users have consulted AI after a doctor’s appointment. They were looking to verify and validate what they’d heard. Even more surprising, after conferring with ChatGPT, a similar percentage then re-engaged with their doctor — to request referrals or tests, changes to medications, or schedule a follow-up.
These trends highlight AI’s enormous potential as an engagement tool, and they also suggest that people are defaulting to AI because the healthcare system is (still) too difficult and frustrating to navigate. Why are people asking ChatGPT how to manage symptoms? Because accessing primary and preventive care is a challenge. Why are they second-guessing advice and prescriptions? Sadly, they don’t fully trust their doctor, are embarrassed to speak up, or don’t have enough time to talk through their questions and concerns during appointments.
Chatbots have all the time in the world, and they’re responsive, supportive, knowledgeable, and nonjudgmental. This is the essence of the healthcare experience people want, need, and deserve, but that experience can’t be built with chatbots alone. AI has a critical role to play, to be sure, but to fulfill its potential it has to evolve well beyond off-the-shelf chatbot competence.
Chatbots 2.0
When it comes to their healthcare, the people currently flocking to mass-market apps like ChatGPT will inevitably realize diminishing returns. Though the current experience feels personal, the advice and information is ultimately very generic, built on the same foundation of publicly available data, medical journals, websites, and countless other sources. Even the purpose-built healthcare chatbots in the market today are overwhelmingly relying on public data and outsourced AI models.
Generic responses and transactional experiences have inherent shortcomings. As we’ve seen with other health-tech advances, including 1.0 telehealth and navigation platforms, impersonal, one-off services driven primarily by in-the-moment-need, efficiency, or convenience don’t equate to long-term value.
For chatbots to avoid the 1.0 trap, they need to do more than put the world’s medical knowledge at our fingertips.
Continue reading…Dominique Wells, Conduit Health Partners
Dominique Wells is COO of Conduit Health Partners which is a spin off from the (now) Bon Secours Mercy Health system. Their role is to provide back up for nursing staff for health systems in very specific areas, notably patient transfer operations, nurse triage and patient communications. Dominique and her team showed me a brief demo of how the transfer operation works. We also got into the conversation about the role of AI in nursing, and how nursing has changed since the pandemic. An interesting discussion about how the most vital role in health care is changing and how new services are being developed to adapt to it—Matthew Holt
Watching Where and How You’re Walking
By MIKE MAGEE
In a speech to the American Philosophical Society in January, 1946, J. Robert Oppenheimer said, “We have made a thing …that has altered abruptly and profoundly the nature of the world…We have raised again the question of whether science is good for man, of whether it is good to learn about the world, to try to understand it, to try to control it, to help give to the world of men increased insight, increased power.”
Eight decades later, those words reverberate, and we once again are at a seminal crossroads. This past week, Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, was everywhere, a remarkably skilled communicator celebrating the fact that his company was now the first publicly traded company to exceed a $4 trillion valuation.
As he explained, “We’ve essentially created a new industry for the first time in three hundred years. the last time there was an industry like this, it was a power generation industry…Now we have a new industry that generates intelligence…you can use it to discover new drugs, to accelerate diagnosis of disease…everybody’s jobs will be different going forward.”
Jensen, as I observed him perform on that morning show, seemed just a bit overwhelmed, awed, and perhaps even slightly frightened by the pace of recent change. “We reinvented computing for the first time since the 60’s, since IBM introduced the modern computer architecture… its able to accelerate applications from computer graphics to physics simulations for science to digital biology to artificial intelligence. . . . in the last year, the technology has advanced incredibly fast. . . AI is now able to reason, it’s able to think… Before it was able to understand, it was able to generate content, but now it can reason, it can do research, it can learn about the latest information before it answers a question.”
Of course, this is hardly the first time technology has triggered flashing ethical warning lights. I recently summarized the case of Facial Recognition Technology (FRT). The US has the largest number of closed circuit cameras at 15.28 per capita, in the world. On average, every American is caught on a closed circuit camera 238 times a week, but experts say that’s nothing compared to where our “surveillance” society will be in a few years.
The field of FRT is on fire.
Continue reading…I’m on the Surgeon’s Record
If you want to hear a little about Commons Clinic from Benjamin Schwartz, MD but rather more from me about who knows what, it’s on The Surgeon’s Record podcast — Matthew Holt
