Ezra Klein, who I think is hanging with Brian Klepper at Families USA — where Don Berwick is hopefuly showing the link between system reform and insurance reform Friday— has a nice article out on the The Lessons of ’94. I, being biased and an arrogant git, slightly prefer this take on the matter.

But the basic question is, will things be bad enough to override the coming opposition of the health care industry to going after their goose? Remember that we need three convergent factors to actually get health care reform that means anything. 1) The Democrats to win big enough in November to both take White House in a canter, and a bigger chunk of the Senate. 2) A new spirit of political ruthlessness (perhaps they could hire Karl Rove, who seems to have time on his hands?) and 3) radical increase in middle class and more importantly middle-class voter insecurity about their continuity of insurance coverage. Translation for #3 is a bad mother of a recession that seems to have no end.

I don’t think we get any of the above….but at least one guy who seems to understand markets a little better than I (around $6bn better) thinks that #3 is coming.