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Viciously Vladeck

The new Health Affairs is out and with it a lovely piece of vintage Vladeck.

In a review of a new book on Medicare  by old Brookings warhorse Henry Aaron and fast rising UT Longhorn star Jeanne Lambrew, Bruce Vladeck soon turns off the main topic (their book) and onto his favorite–the inevitability of the outcome when Medicare tries to do something about health care costs, and the inability of the political system to do much about it.

Policy analysts make fun of politicians who claim they can balance the budget by eliminating "waste, fraud, and abuse," but with a straight face they then propose to control health care costs by making the system more efficient. Efficiency has hardly anything to do with it. What health care costs are all about is market power and the distribution of monopoly rents. Every other industrialized nation understands that and does something about it. U.S. providers and insurers understand it, too, which is why the more sophisticated providers resist any efforts to aggregate power on the buyers’ side. But the mainstream of U.S. policy analysis just doesn’t seem capable of even framing the question, let alone solving it.

Of course despite me convening panels with Valdeck on them a couple of times, he probably doesn’t think THCB is mainstream policy analysis 🙂

But just last week I said:

As I’ve been saying for a long time, to rationally rationalize the
health care system, we need to make cardiologists in Miami behave like
cardiologists in Minnesota with a consequent impact on the incomes of
doctors, hospitals and stent & speedboat salesman in high cost
areas (Yes, Jeff, I do mean Louisiana, New York, Los Angeles and Boston
too). If the Federal Health Board has teeth, that’s what it’ll do, and
the AMA, AHA, AdvaMed, PhRMA et al know it. Which is why the PhRMA front organizations have been railing against cost-effectiveness for so long.

We know the question. Sadly we also probably know the answer. Vladceck’s short piece is great fun, nonetheless.

Let’s Reboot America’s HIT Conversation Part 1: Putting EHRs in Context

Kibbe & Klepper are back with an update to their pre-Christmas piece on EHRs and the forthcoming Obama Administration’s investment policy towards them. Lest you think that this is just a small group here on THCB and fellow traveler blogs shouting to each other, I’d point you towards the Boston Globe article about their previous "Open Letter," which shows that this discussion (and a similar piece on THCB from Rick Peters) appears to be being taken very seriously. As it should–Matthew Holt

On Dec. 19, we published an Open Letter to the Obama Health Team,
cautioning the incoming Administration against limiting its Health
Information Technology (IT) investments to Electronic Health Records
(EHRs). Instead, we recommended that their health IT plan be rethought
to favor a large array of innovative applications that can be easily
adopted to result in more effective, less expensive care.

The
response to that post was vigorous. We received many comments and
inquiries from the health care vendor, professional and policy
communities – urging us to provide more clarity. One prominent
commentator called to ask whether we, in fact, supported the use of
EHRs. We both have been active EMR and health IT supporters for many
years. Dr. Kibbe was a developer of the Continuity of Care Record
(CCR), a de facto standard format for Electronic Medical Records
(EMRs), and has assisted hundreds of medical practices to adopt EHRs.
Dr. Klepper has been involved in EMR projects for the last 15 years,
and the onsite clinic firm he works with provides every clinician with
a range of health IT tools, including EMRs.

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The Broken Window Effect

HalamkaAs an adult I’ve returned to various locations from my childhood and
found the white picket fences, station wagons, and neighborhood shops
transformed into rough, run down, and unsafe neighborhoods. This did
not happen overnight. What happened in these places is the same thing
that can happen in a business or your personal life. I call it the
“Broken Window Effect”

Imagine the perfect “Lake Wobegone”
neighborhood where everything is above average. A baseball goes through
a window, but the owner decides not to fix it. Then, because the house
looks a bit shabby, another neighbor leaves a junked car on the street.
Then a bit of graffiti is not cleaned up. Then folks stop picking up
garbage from their yards.

The same thing can happen inside a house. One
pile on the floor doesn’t take too much room, so a few more piles are
put around it. Before long, all floor spaces have piles on them.
Maintenance items are deferred and junk is not tossed. Years pass and
eventually the house is unhealthy to live in, but no one really notices
because it happened so gradually.

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Commentology

Rick Peters, commenting on John Halamka’s post, the "Broken Window Effect"

"Speaking of downtime – have you ever determined why your organization,
mine, and virtually everyone in health care does routine scheduled
system downtimes on Saturday nights? I understand the theory that it
gives you Sunday to recover, but there isn’t an ER in the country that
isn’t busiest Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday late
afternoon/evening, and Monday night (Tuesday if it’s a three day
weekend). More admissions to our institutions occur at those busy ER
times than at any other time. I would think that physicians in IT
organizations could change this – do routine downtime on Wednesday
night, and in reality do it Thursday morning between 3AM and 5AM –
that’s when things are quiet."

Maggie Mahar has this to say in the thread on Matthew’s "Critical of Critical"" post …

"As for group practice vs. solo practice–solo practice is becoming economically unaffordable. More and more younger doctors recognize this, and would prefer to work in a very large group, on salary. The Dartmouth reserach also confirms that the most efficient outcomes (high quality at a lower price) come in multi-specialty centers where docs are on salary."

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Not exactly health care, but follow the money…

400pxphotos_newyork1_032Michael Lewis has returned from writing about Jim Clark, technology, baseball and football to his first
topic; finance. (Liars Poker is still the best book about Wall Street ever) His two part piece with hedge fund manager David Einhorn this weekend in the NY Times is one of the best things I’ve seen on the current financial crisis and what to do about it.

It’s called The End of the Financial World as We Know It and How to Repair a Broken Financial World. (I recommend reading them both straight through). And yes, Lewis wants more transparency and more regulation.

Paul Krugman estimated last month that the share of GDP going to the financial sector increased from 5% of GDP to 8% of GDP over the past 30 years or so. What did exactly we get for the extra 3% of the economy that was extracted by Wall Street? The answer is pretty evident. And of course lots of other sectors of society, generally inhabited by people earning significantly less money, have suffered pretty directly as a result.

Of course, there’s another sector of the economy that’s increased its share of the GDP by an even greater amount in roughly the same time period (from about 9% to about 17%). No prizes for guessing which one.

Anyone care to justify what value that sector has provided?

Reprise….Critical of Critical

For those of you who had better things to do than spend last week reading wonkish blogs, I point you towards my article about Tom Daschle’s book. In particular I encourage you to look deep in the comments, for a particularly fun spat between me and a reader called Nate–the type of spat that used to be very common on TCHB but sadly has become a little rarer now we’re all grown up!. The original piece is here and the comments get juicy around Jan 3.

Outlook for health stocks clouded by uncertainty about Obama’s health strategy

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Although I wrote months ago that health executives weren’t very concerned about the elections, I think they have to be now.

Many health stocks are depressed and they will be until the
uncertainty about Obama’s proposed nationalizing of the health
insurance markets is resolved. We don’t know exactly what he’ll try to
get through Congress. And we don’t know whether the GOP will be able to
kill or modify Obama’s plans. Clinton had basically the same majorities
in the House and Senate that Obama will have, and he couldn’t get
Hillary care enacted.

The public mood, of course, is much different today. Insurers shoot
themselves in the foot every day, and consumers and politicians are
sick of them. They are much harder to defend today than they were in
‘93 and ‘94. So I think enough GOP senators will support Obama to get
something done.

But the markets aren’t sure, yet. Uncertainty is a market killer.

In addition, with higher co-pays and deductibles, the health
insurance and health care markets are acting much more like normal
markets despite all of the governmental distortions.

This is hurting demand for insurance, medical devices and medical
services. This is shown in the depressed prices of hospital company
stocks.

So, if you’re going to play the health ETFs, play the technicals as
much as the fundamentals, which are very cloudy at this point, imo.

A me-too strategy for me-too drugs

AstraZeneca appears set to follow Merck into the market for “bio-similars.” (See AstraZeneca may join generic rush.)
Congress and the media tend to portray biosimilars are analogous to
generic chemistry-based pharmaceuticals, and therefore believe that
they will lead to much lower prices as a result of the commoditization
of these products. If all goes according to plan, that should cut the
price of biologics by 50 to 95 percent as has been the case for generic
versions of traditional pharmaceuticals.

Pharma and biotech companies aren’t seeing it this way and neither
am I. Although they won’t say so, pharma companies are starting to
realize that biosimilars –which unlike traditional generics cannot be
subsituted by a pharmacist for a branded product– are really like
me-too products within a class of drugs. That’s exactly the model
that’s enabled multiple blockbusters within a given class in the
mainstream pharma business, and led to higher spending overall.
Biosimilars are unlikely to be a lot cheaper than the products they
copy, and they will have all the sales and marketing costs associated
with a branded product, plus some of the development costs. Don’t be
surprised if some biosimilars are actually priced higher than
the original products, based on some real or perceived improvement in
efficacy or safety. That’s what happened when me-too drugs like Lipitor
entered the statin market. (See Generic biologics — or Me Too Drugs 2.0? for more details.)

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A new year’s resolution for greater hospital transparency

Just thinking, along the lines of a New Year’s resolution. What if all
of the hospitals in the Boston metropolitan area — academic medical
centers and community hospitals — decided as a group to eliminate
certain kinds of hospital-acquired infections and other kinds of
preventable harm? And what if they all committed to share their best
practices with one another and to engage in joint training and case
reviews in these arena? And what if they all agreed to publicly post
their progress on a single website for the world to see?

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