Emboldened by their victory in the Midterms, many Republicans are calling for repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). How likely is it that we’ll see changes any time soon? Probably not very. More cautious observers are expressing reservations about the prospect of any reversal in the near term.
Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, one of the Republican young guns, says, “You can’t fully replace this law until you have a new President and a better Senate. And that’s probably 2013, but that’s before the law fully kicks in on 2014.”
Michael Tanner, a senior fellow at the conservative Cato Institute, is more straightforward,”Repealing Obama care is just not going to happen while Obama is in office.”
In the meantime, expect the following events to play out over the next two years.
1. House Republicans will vote overwhelmingly to repeal Obama care, with modest Democratic support from those elected who opposed Obamacare.
2. Harry Reid, Senate Democratic leader, will refuse to bring the House repeal up for a Senate vote.
3. President Obama will insist, as he already has, that it is foolish to “relitigate” a law which he regards as set in legislative, historic, and ideological concrete.
4. They will call upon Kathleen Sibelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services, to explain why costs have risen sharply since passage and why so many insurers and businesses have dropped coverage.
5. They will summon Doctor Donald Berwick, Administrator for the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services, to explain his views and to justify why he should be reseated following his recess appointment.
6. They will seek to repeal the reform the provision calling for submitting of 1099 forms for every $600 of business expenditures – a possible item of compromise.


