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Better Ways of Thinking About the Future

2012 and 2013 present an opportunity for health care executives to produce significant change. If we hope to be, as Buckminister Fuller said, “Architects of the future, not its victims,” we have to change the way we think in specific ways.

How do you learn to “Think Different” as Steve Jobs’ famous ads put it?

Let’s think about the structure of thought for a moment. The great experimental psychologist Daniel Kahneman, in his recent book Thinking, Fast and Slow, shows how much of our thinking and decision making is driven by illusions and assumptions, such as the “illusion of validity” (the false belief in the reliability of our own judgment), the “availability bias” (a biased judgment based on memories that are more easily available or more vivid) and the “endowment effect” (the tendency to value something more highly when we own it than when someone else owns it).

This makes sense. Kahneman’s analysis resonates strongly with my experience working with executive health care teams, including providers, health plans and suppliers, and with governments in North America, Europe and China over several decades. Smart, seasoned executives can make seriously poor judgments, especially when the environment changes.

Curiously, these illusions and biases and assumptions are driven by our experiences. So being more experienced does not necessarily exempt us from illusion, unless something in our process constantly and directly tests the results of our judgments (as, say, a robust retail market does on price setting). Even if the judgments are correct, they are based on an environment: in the jungle or the savannah, in a controlled market or a retail market, in a risk-bearing business arrangement or an endowed business arrangement. When our environment shifts, the illusions and biases and assumptions persist, even though they may be dangerously out of date.

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Why Can’t the ICU Be More Like a Cockpit?

In the world of patient safety, we’re constantly reinforcing the importance of teamwork and communication, both among clinicians and with patients. That’s because we know that patient harm so often occurs when vital information about a patient’s care is omitted, miscommunicated or ignored.

Yet for all we do to improve how humans work together, clinicians compete against an environment in which there is very little teamwork or communication among the technologies that they need to care for patients. And there’s little that clinicians or hospitals alone can do about it.

Take, for example, the plethora of alarms from cardiac monitors and other devices that compete for clinicians’ attention. Vendors act as if we are in an alarm race, with each making their devices’ beeps more annoying but no clear prioritizing of the most important alarms. A study on one 15-bed Hopkins Hospital unit a few years ago found that a critical alarm sounded every 92 seconds. As a result, nurses waste their precious time chasing an ever-growing number of false alarms—or becoming desensitized to false alarms and ignoring them. Across the country, this has had tragic consequences, as patients have died while their alarms went unheeded. (Read a 2011 Boston Globe series about this issue.)

In most other high-risk industries, such as aviation and nuclear power, technologies are integrated. They talk to each other, and they automatically adjust based on feedback. Indeed, because of systems integration, pilots fly a small amount of a flight, and even in some treacherous situations, they hand over the reins to the autopilot. Although Southwest Airlines or the U.S. Air Force can buy a working plane, you cannot buy a working hospital or ICU. You must put it together yourself.

There are many other examples of how health care is grossly under-engineered. Consider these:

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Is a New Federal Patient Safety Effort Doing Enough to Curb Medical Errors?

The Medicare program is betting on a new course of action to curb what one medical journal has dubbed an “epidemic” of uncontrolled patient harm.

The effort is pegged to the success of a little-known entity called a “hospital engagement network” (HEN). In December, the government selected 26 HENs and charged them with preventing more than 60,000 deaths and 1.8 million injuries from so-called “hospital-acquired conditions” over the next three years. That would be the equivalent of eliminating all deaths from HIV/AIDS or homicide over the same period.

Despite those big numbers, and an initial price tag of $218 million, it’s unclear whether the HENs are adequately ambitious or still only pecking away at the patient safety problem. While this is by far the most comprehensive public or private patient safety effort ever attempted in this country, it still aims to eliminate less than half the documented, preventable patient harm.

The inspiration for these networks comes from similar collaborative projects run by the Institute for Healthcare Improvement and other groups. Dr. Donald Berwick, IHI’s founder and president, headed up the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for two years and launched a larger Partnership for Patients that includes the HENs.

In December, the government chose a mix of national and local groups — primarily health systems and hospital organizations — to run individual HENs. Each HEN is charged with spreading safety-improvement innovations that have been proven to work in leading hospitals to others through intensive training programs and technical assistance. Although the program lasts three years, initial HEN contracts are for two years, with an “option year” dependent upon performance.

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Can We Really Expect Innovation from an Industry Stuck on White Male Former Sales Reps? Perhaps.

It’s easy to muster a cynical response to Tuesday’s announcement that the world’s largest health products company, J&J, is replacing their current CEO William Weldon (athletic white male and former sales rep who rose through the commercial organization) with Alex Gorsky (athletic white male and former sales rep who rose through the commercial organization).  After all, he will be in good company, joining Novartis’s Joe Jimenez (athletic white male – see here — with a background in marketing) and AZ’s David Brennan (athletic while male and former sales rep), among others.  Indeed, of the major pharma companies, only Lilly’s John Lechleiter is a scientist (no word on whether he’s athletic; I’m told by Stephen Colbert that he is white).

Even the world of biotechs have fewer medical scientist leaders than you might think (and more white male athletes); true, Gilead, Vertex, and Seattle Genetics are led by scientists, as was Genentech prior to its acquisition by Roche.  Yet, many other distinguished large biotechs don’t have medical scientists at the helm – consider Amgen (Kevin Sharer, and his designated successor, Robert Bradway); Celgene (Robert Hugin), Biomarin (Jean-Jacques Bienaime), and Genzyme, prior to their acquisition (Henri Termeer), to name a few.  As detailed by Monica Higgins in “Career Imprints,” the development of the biotechnology industry owes much to “the Baxter Boys” – a group of mid-level Baxter-trained managers like Termeer who went off in search of new challenges.

As the pharmaceutical industry seems headed along the lines anticipated in 2010 by Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Baum (now at Citi) and gradually moves from a “research and development” model towards a “search and development” model, it’s easy to attribute this change to senior leadership teams that never fundamentally understood research, and lacked appreciation for its unique challenges and culture.  In simple terms, it’s easy to see why someone more comfortable with the more traditional business processes of making and selling things would look for reasons to remove discovery — the most uncertain and difficult to manage part of the enterprise (even if it’s where, however inconveniently, value is initially created).

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Live from HIMSS12: Justin Lanning, Xerox

Justin Lanning runs the Xerox Midas + solutions set which is a real time analytics tool used for clinical management in hospitals. Matthew Holt spoke with Justin at HIMSS 2012 about the fast growth in the product line since Xerox acquired his company last year.

Who Is Biz Stone and What Is Twitter?

Yesterday, one of the founders of Twitter, Biz Stone, gave the opening keynote at HIMSS.

This is probably going to be the best keynote at HIMSS, followed by a speech from Dr. Farzad Mostashari, which will also be excellent. It goes downhill after that: there will be a talk about politics and another talk from an “explorer.” I am sure those will be great talks, but when I go to HIMSS, I want to hear about health information technology. Want to know what @biz actually said? As usual, Twitter itself provides an instant summary.

HIMSS stands for Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society. The annual HIMSS conference is the largest Health IT gathering on the planet. Almost 40,000 people will show up to discuss healthcare information systems. Many of them will be individuals sent by their hospitals to try and find out what solutions they will need to purchase in order to meet meaningful use requirements. But many of the attendees are old school health IT experts, many of whom have spent entire careers trying to bring technology into a healthcare system that has resisted computerization tooth and nail. This year will likely break all kind of attendance records for HIMSS. Rightly so: The value of connecting thousands of health IT experts with tens of thousands who are seeking health IT experts has never been higher.

It is ironic that Biz Stone is keynoting this year’s talk, because Twitter has changed the health IT game so substantially. I say Twitter specifically, and not “social media” generally. I do not think Facebook or Google+ or your social media of choice has had nearly the impact that Twitter has had on healthcare communications.

HIMSS, and in many cases traditional health IT along with it, is experiencing something of a whirlwind. One force adding wind has been the fact that President Obama has funded EHR systems with meaningful use, and made it clear that the future of healthcare funding will take place at Accountable Care Organizations (ACO) that are paid to keep people healthy rather than to cover procedures when they are sick. It is hard to understate the importance of this. Meaningful Use and ACOs will do more to computerize medicine in five years than the previous 50 years without these incentive changes.Continue reading…

EMR Uptake Encouraging but Interoperability Needs Work

As those of us who work in health care prepare to analyze Stage 2 Meaningful Use rules – which are due any day now – it will be helpful to consider new data commissioned by the Optum Institute and conducted by Harris. The research finds that hospitals are progressing with adoption of electronic medical records (EMRs) but that the adoption is not creating the type of provider connectivity we need to support a more collaborative and aligned healthcare system.

To be sure, the survey of 301 U.S. hospital chief information officers has some very encouraging findings. In particular, the research finds that nearly nine out of 10 hospitals surveyed (87 percent) now have EMR systems in place – up significantly since 2011, when the Health Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS) reported that only slightly more than half of CIOs had a fully operational electronic health record in at least one facility in their organization.

In addition, the survey finds that 70 percent of CIOs report their systems have attested to meaningful use 1 criteria (MU1) and three quarters anticipated being able to meet expected meaningful use 2 (MU2) criteria by 2014.

However, the survey also identifies six critical technology concerns facing hospital CIOs:

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So Much For “Everyone Can Get Care In An Emergency Room”

We’ve long argued this meme isn’t true. But now it’s explicitly false:

Last year, about 80,000 emergency-room patients at hospitals owned by HCA, the nation’s largest for-profit hospital chain, left without treatment after being told they would have to first pay $150 because they did not have a true emergency.

Led by the Nashville-based HCA, a growing number of hospitals have implemented the pay-first policy in an effort to divert patients with routine illnesses from the ER after they undergo a federally required screening. At least half of all hospitals nationwide now charge upfront ER fees, said Rick Gundling, vice president of the Healthcare Financial Management Association, which represents health-care finance executives.

So sure you can get non-emergent care in an ED – if you pay for it out of pocket. Please understand I’m not saying that all care should be free. I’m saying that the emergency department is no different than a physician’s office. If you have insurance, or can pay for care yourself, you get it. Otherwise, you don’t. No matter where you are.

Why is this happening?
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Live from HIMSS12: ICD-10, Meaningful Use & Social Media

There has been a lot of buzz around two pieces of news –in one case, lack of news—in the past week. Last Thursday, HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius responded to heavy pressure from the American Medical Association and announced a delay to the ICD-10 implementation deadline, currently set for October 2013.

Meanwhile, the health IT universe continues to wait with baited breath for Sebelius and/or leadership at CMS or ONC to publish the proposed regulations for Stage 2 of the “meaningful use” EHR incentive program. The proposal was supposed to have been out before 35,000 or so health IT industry types descended on Las Vegas for HIMSS12, but it was not to be. As with any major federal rule-making, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget has to vet every word, so it is out of Sebelius’ hands for the moment.

Rumors spreading through the Sands Expo Center and the adjacent Venetian and Palazzo hotels have pegged Wednesday or Thursday for the release date, since national health IT coordinator Dr. Farzad Mostashari is leading a session on Stage 2 meaningful use with other ONC and CMS representatives Wednesday morning, then delivering a keynote address the following day.

In the wake of the ICD-10 bombshell last week, HIMSS itself and other IT-related groups are telling their membership and anyone else who will listen not to slack off when it comes to ICD-10 preparedness. HIMSS CEO Steve Lieber noted in his annual press conference Tuesday that the official HHS statement said the department would “initiate a process to postpone the date by which certain healthcare entities” must meet the requirements. That, to Lieber, suggests the possibility of a delay for physician practices or perhaps small hospitals, but not for larger organizations.Continue reading…

Seizing the Opportunity in the ICD-10 Delay

Innovative thinkers and influential healthcare leaders aren’t relying on the decisions coming out of HHS to determine their strategy.  Despite the fact that many healthcare organizations were on target to transition from ICD-9 to ICD-10, Health and Human Services (HHS) announced it would initiate a process to postpone the date by which certain healthcare entities have to comply with ICD-10.

The details of the delay have not been revealed, but industry experts are speculating that a one-two year delay is in the works.  With only 20 months remaining to the Oct. 1, 2013 deadline, this leaves many organizations in limbo.  Do they continue down the path of ICD-10 adoption, revise plans based on speculation about a new timeline or completely put the initiative on hold?

The leaders in healthcare never limited their thinking to a coding mandate.  They were aligning their ICD-10 efforts with quality of care initiatives- EMR adoption and improved clinical documentation.  They won’t hesitate, they won’t miss a step, and they will focus on providing exceptional care through improved processes, many of which will prepare them for a successful transition to ICD-10 and ICD-11.

The following areas of focus will improve quality of care, reporting and accuracy of reimbursement.

–        Lead with purpose- understand the long-term impact of a coding mandate and help providers understand the alignment of greater specificity in coding with quality reporting, improved clinical documentation and clinical decision support.

–        Take this time to improve clinical documentation– develop processes and feedback to improve how physicians and other providers document care.  This effort will reap financial benefits and directly impact quality of care and reporting.Continue reading…

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