The feedback doctors will receive from CMS under CMS’s proposed MACRA rule will arrive in two forms: Money (more or less of it) and data. Neither form of feedback will be accurate. For that reason, the behavior desired by Congress and CMS – “smarter care” (as CMS puts it) producing lower costs and higher quality – will not materialize.
As I noted in the first installment of this three-part series, the two most important sources of noise in CMS’s feedback will be CMS’s inability to determine which patients “belong” to which doctor (the attribution problem) and its inability to adjust cost and quality scores for factors outside physician control (the risk-adjustment problem). [1] In my first installment I showed that the method of attribution CMS will use is unacceptably sloppy. In this installment I review the risk-adjustment problem and CMS’s irresponsible claim that it can measure physician “merit” even with sample sizes as small as 20 patients.
A Time of Uncertainty …