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POLITICS: Prop 72, Califorina’s pay or play, looks good for now

California voters haven’t seen much yet about the pay or play bill that Prop 72 represents. However, when read the text of the propsition over the phone by the LA Times‘ pollsters, 51% say they like it, while only 29% oppose it. Of course the advertising to beat it back will commence shortly, with an array of fast-food joints out to defeat the bill, which was passed by the legislature and signed by Gray Davis, as he was being kicked out the door last year. The Times’ story is quite interesting:

On the healthcare coverage referendum, 51% of likely voters said after hearing the ballot description that they would support it, while 29% said they were opposed and 20% undecided.Business groups, including the California Chamber of Commerce and the restaurant industry, placed the referendum on the ballot hoping to overturn a law passed last year that would require businesses with more than 50 workers to provide healthcare coverage or pay into a state fund created for the same purpose.Because the measure is a referendum, a “yes” vote would keep the law in place and a “no” vote would repeal it.

Ten percent of registered voters surveyed said they were without health insurance. Several respondents said in follow-up interviews that they believed healthcare should be more widely available, but differed on how an expansion should be accomplished.”I believe everybody should be offered health insurance,” said Patty English, 43, a stay-at-home mother of two children, who plans to vote for Proposition 72. “I’m not sure what’s a higher priority to me– education or healthcare — but I believe healthcare is our right.”But Fred Bauer, a llama rancher outside Petaluma, said he would vote to overturn the law because he believed the country should go to a universal healthcare system.”This is another Band-Aid approach that seems particularly unfair to small business,” Bauer said. More generally, Bauer expressed concern about the initiative process shared by other voters interviewed.”The process of how you get an initiative on the ballot has nothing to with the merits,” said Bauer, 65.”It has to do with who has money and what their little pet projects are, and I’m not sure it’s a good way to make law.”


So it’s apparent that the Times found the pro-pay or player while finding a single payer advocate to oppose it — not exactly the typical opponent to this bill you’d imagine. But then again the Time’s Democratic banners are nailed to its mast pretty clearly. Of course enough attack ads during the World Series and this could change fast.

POLITICS: Health Care in the 2004 Presidential Election

The New England Journal of Medicine has a Bob Blendon special on politics and the election and it provides the proof in what I said a few weeks back. (And it’s fully available online without payment). Health care is issue #4, after Iraq, the economy and terrorism. But it is enough to cause a few people to change their mind in some swing states, especially if they’re elderly.

There is a wealth of polling data in this study and much collated from several polls. Two particular favorites of mine.

First, Harris has for ever asked the three part question about the health care system a) working pretty well, b) needing fundamental changes and c) needing to be rebuilt completely. Obviously most people are in the middle, but watching the last one go up gives a good idea of the mood for real action. In 1991-3 42% said the system needed complete rebuilding. By 2000 that number was down to 29%. Now it’s back up to 36%. That increase suggests to me that health care will be a very big deal in 2006-10 (depending on the economy of course.

Second, 48% of those polled hate the Medicare bill while only 27% have a favorable impression of it & 25% have no opinion. This is showing up in races in Pennsylvania where the elderly are hopping mad, and once vulnerable Democratic housemembers are riding high and some Republicans are in real trouble.

The WSJ has an interesting report on the impact of Medicare in those races in Pennsylvania and concludes that it’s really hurting the Republicans. Six weeks is a long time in politics. Whether CBS-Kerry own goals can continue to distract from the carnage in Iraq and what some seniors feel will be the coming catastrophe in Medicare is an open question.

QUALITY: Patient safety — we’re still waiting and getting impatient

iHealthbeat reports that a couple of patient safety bills are stuck in Congress with little prospect of getting out. Basically the House version would allow errors reported to be used in legal proceedings, while the Senate version would not. The politics of this dispute are starting to get into public consciousness.

While the IOM To Err is Human report is 5 years old this November, a recent Harris interactive poll of the public’s view on patient safety shows that the people are becoming more aware of this issue. It’s not exactly as high on the radar screen as drug reimportation, but there is concern. 63% of Americans are concerned about medication errors in hospitals, and 55% are concerned about surgical errors. I’m not sure that it’s good news for hospitals that more than half of their potential customers are worried about what happens to them when they get in there. After all a hospital is supposed to be a place that you go to get better and a place where you should feel safe. Even though I personally know all about the iatrogenic illness story, I didn’t think that it would happen to me (which it never has!). But it appears that I’m in a minority. And more importantly nearly 30% of Americans believe that hospitals do only a fair or poor job in preventing these errors (and they’re right) which is only slightly fewer than the number who think they do an excellent job.

If you listen to a leader in this area, like Intermountain’s Brent James (who’s talk on this subject earlier this summer I posted about here) you’ll realize that plenty can be done relatively simply to improve patient safety, improve outcomes and generally do this all better. A great example is the use of discharge sheets form InterMountain. A 6 year study shows that giving cardiac patients discharge sheets, and making sure that they take actual drugs (not just a prescription) with them:

Brent Muhlestein, director of cardiovascular research at IHC said the discharge policy seems a simple enough solution, but not every hospital follows it. He hopes other health care facilities will follow IHC’s lead, and he eventually wants to expand the program to patients with diabetes.

It’s about time that every hospital put this to the front of its agenda. Yes, CPOE is complex, but some process change — like those discharge sheets — is relatively simple and doesn’t require too much technology, just a determination on the part of executives and clinicians. And if they need inspiration, well Congress may just be ready to provide it if the issue gets more publicity after the election.

BLOGS: Blogger boggered?

Blogger is being very testy today…..

I’ve got it working now but so late in the day that posting will have to wait until tomorrow.

POLICY/PHARMA: “Producers” comment on how much we should spend on health care.

The casual reader who’s been following the health care system and the election–which has had a touch of health care injected into its rhetoric recently–might believe that a nation spending 15% of its GDP on health care, while having a few other “priorities” in places like Eye-Rak, perhaps ought to be wondering about how to slow down its health care spending. Other readers might have noticed that pharmaceuticals are very expensive compared to other countries, and that the odd rogue representative from that industry is starting to suggest that the industry might think about how to moderate those costs. But of course you wouldn’t get to be the CEO of a major pharma company if you thought like that.

Instead you’d think like this. First, health care spending ought to be 18% of GDP. And that spending should be funded by middle and upper-income individuals saving up to 10% of their incomes in special accounts to pay for it because, well, because you just can’t trust those government people. Second, the health care system should be rebuilt with Medicare changed to focus on integrated patient care (presumably with the government taking a lesser role). Third, people need to shape up and practice personal responsibility and pay for their own preventative care. Fourth, the environment for brave pharmaceutical companies who take such high risks should be made easier, and the politicians–instead of criticizing them–should realize that the font of all wealth and success in the modern world comes from pharmaceutical research.

If you think that this is a strategy for a more efficient cost effective health care system, delivering more of its products and services to a wider population more equitably, then you too are probably in line to be the CEO of a major pharmaceutical company, or maybe you already are.

Although he says one or two sensible things about Medicare and school meals, Fred Hassan’s Four Pillars of Wisdom Health Care Reform might look to the outside observer as being just a leetle, leetle bit self-serving. But he has his supporters on the libertarian right. At Tech Central Station, which BTW genuinely doubles as a PR agency for oil companies that for some obscure reason don’t believe in global warming, libertarian columnist Arnold Kling thinks that critics of the system hate those “producers” in the industry. Those people who hate the producers include Uwe Reinhardt, who complains about the high cost of health care and attributes it to the high cost of services. Kling feels that Uwe’s counting the wrong things (services) and that really we should be looking at those outputs–although he doesn’t explain what outputs are, and that everyone who understands health care knows that outcomes (one version of “outputs”) are poorly counted and often just plain poor in American healthcare.

But while they are loathe to criticize producers of health care services, especially producers of very expensive medical technologies which enjoy monopoly protection, those on the political right of a more fiscally-conservative ilk are starting to complain about the costs that are being dumped into new government programs–which will end up being transferred to those producers under our current system. Blogger Josh Clayborn is one such conservative who maintains that these government programs are something we can’t afford. Although the cynical amongst us might note that while we can’t “afford” to borrow money to offer drugs to Medicare recipients, apparently we seem to be able to afford to borrow money to give huge tax breaks to the super-rich.

But those of us who think that the health care system consumes too much money inefficiently have a little bit of ammunition. For the perfect Adam Smith market to appear in health care, information and expertise has to appear on the consumer side, and monopolies have to be broken on the producer side. Well anyone who knows anything about health care knows that we are far from that happy state. While Fred Hassan is unhappy about alleged government interference in the pharma business stopping his precious innovation, the real story is that he doesn’t seem to be objecting too much to the government interference in the market that allows his industry to routinely increase prices and play all sorts of games to prevent competition.

And while we’re on the subject of consumer knowledge, it’s worth taking a quick look at this table which shows that only 33% of Americans believe that we spend more on health care for the elderly than we do on health care for kids. Given that level of understanding of the health care system, its hard to imagine that the “consumer” versus the “producer” is a fair contest. And fifty years of “free market” health care shows that it hasn’t been. Which is why the single payer crowd and the managed care/managed competition crowd all believe that some specialist entity needs to at least be attempting to level the playing field.

And when a major pharma CEO is promulgating about how the rest of us should be funding his retirement fund (rather than our own), well one of my correspondents suggested that it reminded him of when the Chicago press would interview Al Capone in the 1920s and Scarface Al would opine on topics ranging from the changing status of women to juvenile delinquency and government policy for small business. The less amusing aspect of all of this is that health policy in the first and (gawd help us) second Bush term is being run by Hassan and his cohorts in big pharma, so we can expect the current level of producer versus consumer imbalance to continue. Unless of course I’m wrong and the CDHPs first become common and then work to restrain health care costs. But I’m not holding my breath.

HEALTH PLANS/POLICY: Plans challenge Commonwealth Fund position on CDHPs

You’ll recall that the Commonwealth Fund has been featured on THCB as a bastion of opposition to the idea that CDHPs will lead to nirvana, and that people who join them may skip out on needed services. Well now a couple of health plans are disputing this saying that behavior changes are being seen amongst those who sign up for CDHPs. There isn’t much more to say other than this will play out in the coming years and we’ll see who’s right. However, there’s no inherent contradiction in saying that people who choose CDHPs will use more preventative services while still being healthier than those who stay in traditional plans.

Anyway, here’s the article, which gives you a good intro to the subject if you haven’t read THCB’s earlier reports (like this one).

QUALITY: Comprehensive ‘pay for performance’ article

Other than (probably falsely, but if someone knows the truth please tell me) claiming that I was in the group that back in 1997 invented the expression in a health care context, THCB readers will also know that I am somewhat optimistic about the pay for performance concept. There’s a very good Wall Street Journal article about P4P in California on Firday, and luckily it’s been reprinted in a place where you don’t have to subsribe to the WSJ to get it, so go read it.

THCB PLUG: Upcoming Michael Porter event

The good folks at Harvard Business School Publishing are getting into the field of audio conferences. They’ve bribed me with a free pass to their first one so long as I mentioned it to you, and that I’ve accepted gives you a clue about which HBS professor is not presenting. The one who is presenting is Michael Porter, luminary of the business competitive strategy field who has been massively successful and influential in that arena for decades, so much so that all my MBA friends can still recite his 7 Pillars of Wisdom Five Forces of Competition. For reasons that I’m sure will appear puzzling to him in several years and were probably due to excessive consumption of alcohol, Porter has decided to enter the quagmire known as health care.

Porter’s initial thrust is to suggest that healthcare is not competing on the right level. He says:

Competition in the health care system occurs at the wrong level, over the wrong things, in the wrong geographic markets, and at the wrong time. Competition has actually been all but eliminated just where and when it is most important.

To get this from the horse’s mouth, get your corporate credit card out and go sign up here for the webinar which is on Tuesday 28 September.

My biased read will be delivered sometime later. I suspect that given the new emphasis on P4P and DSM in Medicare, Porter’s thinking may become pretty influential in health care.

THCB NOTES: FierceHealthcare Newsletter

Your host here has picked up another gig which is pretty complementary with TCHB. I’m now editing the new FierceHealthcare newsletter. This is a free newsletter each weekday emailed out around 12 noon EST which captures the gist of the 5 healthcare biggest stories that day, and has a link to another 5-10 stories or press releases of interest. It’s mostly aimed at the health care business crowd, but the kind of topics you see in it will be pretty familiar to THCB readers. I encourage you to sign up here. If you want to see a sample first, go here.

FierceHealthcare is pretty much straight news, although I supply a little context. So I will be attempting over time (and actually have been for some months) to continue to take THCB away from the the “selective” news reporting type of blogging where it started out (and which tends to be how Don Johnson’s BusinessWord and Ross Silverman’s Public Health Press‘s News Links features operate) and into more in-depth analysis, opinions on the future likely course of healthcare (from me and my various contributors), and scurrilous gossip (OK, maybe not that scurrilous!). You shouldn’t notice too much difference, but as ever please let me know your opinions.

QUALITY: More problems at Tenet sub-contractor

A little more scuttle-butt from my source on that Tenet sub-contractor THCB wrote about a while back.

Disarray abounds at the small healthcare IT company that Tenet has chosen to support its Core Measures JCAHO submission requirements. The company recently was denied JCAHO “listed” Core Measures vendor status because JCAHO’s Board didn’t feel that the company should be permitted to sell to hospitals directly. Although the company is still permitted to support Tenet, Tenet (as the JCAHO listed entity) is wholly responsible for data submission screw-ups: something that has occurred every quarter, so far.

Adding to the dysfunction is the removal of this company’s CEO and founder by its board and the departure of the company’s CFO, VP of Engineering, VP of Sales, Director of Marketing, and several senior engineers in the past few months. One wonders why Tenet would entrust something as important as JCAHO accreditation to a company that JCAHO refuses to certify…

I have some really juicy stuff on this waiting in the wings, but I probably need to get the as yet non-existent THCB legal counsel on the case first.

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