I have been struck by the optimism regarding private Medicare presented by health plan executives during the recent earnings season and the analysts failure to press them on just how their numbers will add-up to sustain the long-term viability of a private Medicare strategy.
The typical private Medicare health plan operates on a medical cost ratio in the mid-80s. Let’s assume 86% for medical costs and the remaining 14% for overhead, profit, and taxes.
Government-run Medicare operates on about 3% overhead. One can argue that many federal Medicare costs are paid for elsewhere but that is the number the private plans have to compete against. So private Medicare plans spend 14% on overhead and Medicare charges
itself 3% — that’s an 11% disadvantage for the private market right
out of the box.