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Tag: Kim Bellard

Après AI, le Déluge

By KIM BELLARD

I have to admit, I’ve steered away from writing about AI lately. There’s just so much going on, so fast, that I can’t keep up. Don’t ask me how GPT-5 differs from GPT-4, or what Gemini does versus Genie 3. I know Microsoft really, really wants me to use Copilot, but so far I’m not biting. DeepMind versus DeepSeek?  Is Anthropic the French AI, or is that Mistral?  I’m just glad there are younger, smarter people paying closer attention to all this.

Still, I’m very much concerned about where the AI revolution is taking us, and whether we’re driving it or just along for the ride. In Fast Company, Sebastion Buck, co-founder of the “future design company” Enso, posits a great attitude about the AI revolution:

The scary news is: We have to redesign everything.

The exciting news is: We get to redesign everything.

He goes on to explain:

Technical revolutions create windows of time when new social norms are created, and where institutions and infrastructure is rethought. This window of time will influence daily life in myriad ways, from how people find dates, to whether kids write essays, to which jobs require applications, to how people move through cities and get health diagnoses.

Each of these are design decisions, not natural outcomes. Who gets to make these decisions? Every company, organization, and community that is considering if—and how—to adopt AI. Which almost certainly includes you. Congratulations, you’re now part of designing a revolution.

I want to pick out one area in particular where I hope we redesign everything intentionally, rather than in our normal short-sighted, laissez-faire manner: jobs and wealth.

It has become widely accepted that offshoring led to the demise of U.S. manufacturing and its solidly middle class blue collar jobs over the last 30 years. There’s some truth to that, but automation was arguably more of a factor – and that was before AI and today’s more versatile robots. More to the point, today’s AI and robots aren’t coming just to manufacturing but pretty much to every sector.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg warned:

The economic implications are the ones that I think could be the most disruptive, the most quickly. We’re talking about whole categories of jobs, where — not in 30 or 40 years, but in three or four — half of the entry-level jobs might not be there. It will be a bit like what I lived through as a kid in the industrial Midwest when trade in automation sucked away a lot of the auto jobs in the nineties — but ten times, maybe a hundred times more disruptive.

Mr. Buttigieg is no AI expert, but Erik Brynjolfsson, senior fellow at Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, is. When asked about those comments, he told Morning Edition: “Yeah, he’s spot on. We are seeing enormous advances in core technology and very little attention is being paid to how we can adapt our economy and be ready for those changes.”

You could look, for example, at the big layoffs in the tech sector lately. Natasha Singer, writing in The New York Times, reports on how computer science graduates have gone from expecting mid-six figure starting salaries to working at Chipotle (and wait till Chipotle automates all those jobs). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says unemployment for computer science & computer engineering majors is better than anthropology majors, but, astonishingly, worse than pretty much all other majors.

And don’t just feel sorry for tech workers. Neil Irwin of Axios warns: “In the next job market downturn — whether it’s already starting or years away — there just might be a bloodbath for millions of workers whose jobs can be supplanted by artificial intelligence.” He quotes Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook: “AI is poised to reshape our labor market, which in turn could affect our notion of maximum employment or our estimate of the natural rate of unemployment.”

In other words, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

While manufacturing was taking a beating in the U.S. over the last thirty years, tech boomed. Most of the world’s largest and most profitable companies are tech companies, and most of the world’s richest people got their wealth from tech. Those are, by and large, the ones investing most heavily in AI — most likely to benefit from it.

Professor Brynjolfsson worries about how we’ll handle the transition to an AI economy:

The ideal thing is that you find ways of compensating people and managing a transition. Sad to say, with trade, we didn’t do a very good job of that. A lot of people got left behind. It would be a catastrophe if we made the similar mistake with technology, [which] that also is going to create enormous amounts of wealth, but it’s not going to affect everyone evenly. And we have to make sure that people manage that transition. 

“Catastrophe” indeed. And I fear it is coming.

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A New Future for DNA

By KIM BELLARD

As a DNA-based creature myself, I’m always fascinated by DNA’s remarkable capabilities. Not just all the ways that life has found to use it, but our ability to find new ways to take advantage of them. I’ve written about DNA as a storage medium, as a neural network, as a computer, in a robot, even mirror DNA. So when I read about the Synthetic Human Genome (SynHG) project, last month, I was thrilled.   

The project was announced, and is being funded, by the Wellcome Trust, to the tune of £10 million pounds over five years. Its goal is “to develop the foundational tools, technology and methods to enable researchers to one day synthesise genomes.”

The project’s website elaborates:

Through programmable synthesis of genetic material we will unlock a deeper understanding of life, leading to profound impacts on biotechnology, potentially accelerating the development of safe, targeted, cell-based therapies, and opening entire new fields of research in human health. Achieving reliable genome design and synthesis – i.e. engineering cells to have specific functions – will be a major milestone in modern biology.

The goal of the current project isn’t to build a full synthetic genome, which they believe may take decades, but “to provide proof of concept for large genome synthesis by creating a fully synthetic human chromosome.”

That’s a bigger deal than you might realize.

“Our DNA determines who we are and how our bodies work,” says Michael Dunn, Director of Discovery Research at Wellcome. “With recent technological advances, the SynHG project is at the forefront of one of the most exciting areas of scientific research.” 

The project is led by Professor Jason Chin from the Generative Biology Institute at Ellison Institute of Technology and the University of Oxford, who says: “The ability to synthesize large genomes, including genomes for human cells, may transform our understanding of genome biology and profoundly alter the horizons of biotechnology and medicine.”

He further told The Guardian: “The information gained from synthesising human genomes may be directly useful in generating treatments for almost any disease.”

Professor Patrick Yizhi Cai, Chair of Synthetic Genomics at the University of Manchester boasted: “We are leveraging cutting-edge generative AI and advanced robotic assembly technologies to revolutionize synthetic mammalian chromosome engineering. Our innovative approach aims to develop transformative solutions for the pressing societal challenges of our time, creating a more sustainable and healthier future for all.”

Project member Dr Julian Sale, of the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology in Cambridge, told BBC News the research was the next giant leap in biology: “The sky is the limit. We are looking at therapies that will improve people’s lives as they age, that will lead to healthier aging with less disease as they get older. We are looking to use this approach to generate disease-resistant cells we can use to repopulate damaged organs, for example in the liver and the heart, even the immune system.”

Consider me impressed.

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I’m Sensing Some Future

By KIM BELLARD

One of my frequent laments is that here we are, a quarter of the way into the 21st century, yet too much of our health care system still looks like the 20th century, and not enough like the 22nd century. It’s too slow, too reactive, too imprecise, and uses too much brute force. I want a health care system that seems more futuristic, that does things more elegantly.

So here are three examples of the kinds of things that give me hope, in rough order of when they might be ready for prime time:

Floss sensor: You know you’re supposed to floss every day, right? And you know that your oral health is connected to your overall health, in a number of ways, right? So some smart people at Tufts University thought, hmm, perhaps we can help connect those dots.

 “It started in a collaboration with several departments across Tufts, examining how stress and other cognitive states affect problem solving and learning,” said Sameer Sonkusale, professor of electrical and computer engineering. “We didn’t want measurement to create an additional source of stress, so we thought, can we make a sensing device that becomes part of your day-to-day routine? Cortisol is a stress marker found in saliva, so flossing seemed like a natural fit to take a daily sample.”

The result: “a saliva-sensing dental floss looks just like a common floss pick, with the string stretched across two prongs extending from a flat plastic handle, all about the size of your index finger.”

It uses a technology called electropolymerized molecularly imprinted polymers (eMIPs) to detect the cortisol. “The eMIP approach is a game changer,” said Professor Sonkusale. “Biosensors have typically been developed using antibodies or other receptors that pick up the molecule of interest. Once a marker is found, a lot of work has to go into bioengineering the receiving molecule attached to the sensor. eMIP does not rely on a lot of investment in making antibodies or receptors. If you discover a new marker for stress or any other disease or condition, you can just create a polymer cast in a very short period of time.”

The sensor is designed to track rather to diagnose, but the scientists are optimistic that the approach can be used to track other conditions, such as oestrogen for fertility tracking, glucose for diabetes monitoring, or markers for cancer. They also hope to have a sensor that can track multiple conditions, “for more accurate monitoring of stress, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other conditions.” 

They believe that their sensor has comparable accuracy to the best performing sensors currently available, and are working on a start-up to commercialize their approach.

Nano-scale biosensor: Flossing is all well and good, but many of us are not as diligent about it as we should be, so, hey, what about sensors inside us that do the tracking without us having to do anything? That’s what a team at Stanford are suggesting in A biochemical sensor with continuous extended stability in vivo, published in Nature.

The researchers say:

The development of biosensors that can detect specific analytes continuously, in vivo, in real time has proven difficult due to biofouling, probe degradation and signal drift that often occur in vivo. By drawing inspiration from intestinal mucosa that can protect host cell receptors in the presence of the gut microbiome, we develop a synthetic biosensor that can continuously detect specific target molecules in vivo.

“We needed a material system that could sense the target while protecting the molecular switches, and that’s when I thought, wait, how does biology solve this problem?” said Yihang Chen, the first author of the paper. Their modular biosensor, called the Stable Electrochemical Nanostructured Sensor for Blood In situ Tracking (SENSBIT) system, can survive more than a week in live rats and a month in human serum.

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Welcome to the (U.S. Science) Apocalypse

By KIM BELLARD

I’m starting to feel like I’m beating a dead horse, having already written a couple times recently about the Trump Administration’s attacks on science, but the hits just keep on coming. Last Friday, for example, not only did the Administration’s proposed 2026 budget slash National Science Foundation (NSF) funding by over 50%, but Nature reported that the NSF was ceasing not only making new grants but also paying out on existing grants.

Then this week, at an event called “Choose Europe for Science,” European leaders announced a 500 million euro ($566 million) program to attract scientists. It wasn’t specifically targeted at U.S. scientists, but the context was pretty clear.

Sudip Parikh, chief executive officer of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, called the proposed budget cuts “a crisis, just a catastrophe for U.S. science.” Even if Congress doesn’t go along with such draconian cuts and grant approval resumes, Dr. Parikh warns: “That’s created this paralysis that I think is hurting us already.” 

One NSF staffer fears: “This country’s status as the global leader in science and innovation is seemingly hanging by a thread at this point.”

Nature obtained an internal NSF April 30 email that told staff members “stop awarding all funding actions until further notice.” Researchers can continue to spend money they’ve already received but new money for those existing or for new grants are frozen “until further notice.” Staff members had already been told to screen grant proposals for “topics or activities that may not be in alignment with agency priorities.”

NPR reports that some 344 previously approved grants were terminated as a result, as they “were not aligned with agency priorities.” One staffer told Nature that the policy had the potential for “Orwellian overreach,” and another warned: “They are butchering the gold standard merit review process that was established at NSF over decades.” Yet another staffer told Samantha Michaels of Mother Jones that the freeze is “a slow-moving apocalypse…In effect, every NSF grant right now is canceled.”

No wonder that NSF’s director, Sethuraman Panchanathan, resigned last week, simply saying: “I believe I have done all I can.” 

If you think, oh, who cares? We still have plenty of innovative private companies investing in research, so who needs the government to fund research, then you might want to consider this: new research from American University estimates that even a 25% drop in federal support for R&D would reduce the U.S. GDP by 3.8% in the long term. And these aren’t one-time hits. “It is going to be a decline forever,” said Ignacio González, one of the study’s authors. “The U.S. economy is going to be smaller.”  

If you don’t believe AU, then maybe you’ll believe the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which estimates that government investments in research and development accounted for at least a fifth of U.S. productivity growth since World War II. “If you look at a long period of time, a lot of our increase in living standards seems to be coming from public investment in scientific research,” Andrew Fieldhouse, a Texas A&M economist and an author of the Dallas Fed study, told The New York Times. “The rates of return are just really high.”

It’s no wonder, then, that European leaders see an opportunity.

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Saving U.S. Manufacturing: Think Biotech, Not Cars

By KIM BELLARD

Amidst all the drama last week with tariffs, trade wars, and market upheavals, you may have missed that the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) issued its report: Charting the Future of Biotechnology. Indeed, you may have missed when the Commission was created by Congress in 2022; I know I did.

Biotechnology is a big deal and it is going to get much bigger. John Cumbers, founder and CEO of SynBiobeta, writes that the U.S. bioeconomy is now already worth $950Bn, and quotes McKinsey Global Institute as predicting that by 2040, biology could generate up to 60% of the world’s physical inputs, representing a $30 trillion global opportunity. Not an opportunity the U.S. can afford to miss out on – yet that is exactly what may be happening.

The NSCEB report sets the stakes:

We stand at the edge of a new industrial revolution, one that depends on our ability to engineer biology. Emerging biotechnology, coupled with artificial intelligence, will transform everything from the way we defend and build our nation to how we nourish and provide care for Americans.

Unfortunately, the report continues: “We now believe the United States is falling behind in key areas of emerging biotechnology as China surges ahead.”

Their core conclusion: “China is quickly ascending to biotechnology dominance, having made biotechnology a strategic priority for 20 years.1 To remain competitive, the United States must take swift action in the next three years. Otherwise, we risk falling behind, a setback from which we may never recover.”

NSCEB Chair Senator Todd Young elaborated:

The United States is locked in a competition with China that will define the coming century. Biotechnology is the next phase in that competition. It is no longer constrained to the realm of scientific achievement. It is now an imperative for national security, economic power, and global influence. Biotechnology can ensure our warfighters continue to be the strongest fighting force on tomorrow’s battlefields, and reshore supply chains while revitalizing our manufacturing sector, creating jobs here at home.

“We are about to see decades of breakthrough happen, seemingly, overnight…touching nearly every aspect of our lives—agriculture, industry, energy, defense, and national security,” Michelle Rozo, PhD, molecular biologist and vice chair of NSCEB, said while testifying before the April 8 House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation. Yet, she continued, “America’s biotechnology strengths are atrophying—dangerously.”

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Next Up: Fiber Computers

By KIM BELLARD

I know: you’re pretty proud for being into “wearables” to help monitor your health and other functions. You’ve got some apps on your smartphone. You use a smartwatch. Maybe you’ve tried one of the many iterations of smart glasses, like Google Glass or Meta’s Ray Bans. You were disappointed when Humane’s AI pin bit the dust.

Forget all that. With fiber computing, your clothes can be your wearable.

A new paper from MIT researchers discussed the ability to use “single fiber computers” that can be woven directly into clothing. According to the MIT press release:

The fiber computer contains a series of microdevices, including sensors, a microcontroller, digital memory, bluetooth modules, optical communications, and a battery, making up all the necessary components of a computer in a single elastic fiber.  

It also has embedded lithium-ion batteries that power it.

MIT has a lab devoted to fiber computing (fibers@mit), led by Professor Yoel Fink, who has been working on it for over ten years. According to its website: “Our research focuses on extending the frontiers of fiber materials from optical transmission to encompass electronic, optoelectronic and even acoustic properties,” with the goal of fibers that can See, Hear, Sense and Communicate.

The lab has had many accomplishments, but the mismatch between the shape of a chip and the shape of a fiber became a problem. Co-lead author Nikhil Gupta, an MIT materials science and engineering graduate student explains the problem:

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Patients Are NPCs

By KIM BELLARD

I found a new way to think about patients in an opinion piece by Ezra Klein: they’re NPCs. For those of you unfamiliar with gaming, NPCs are those characters in video games that aren’t controlled by live players; they’re part of the game, serving as background for the actions the actual players take.

Not a very flattering metaphor.

Mr. Klein’s article is neither about healthcare nor gaming, but about politics: The Republican Party’s NPC Problem — and Ours. Conservatives, Mr. Klein explains, accused liberals of being NPCs — passive, conformists, deferential – whereas they were the live players, willing to take chances and make things happen. He goes on to explain why this is not at all accurate, especially in the Congress, but this paragraph is what really struck me:

It’s a genuine failure of Democrats that they didn’t put more energy into making the government faster and better when they were in charge. How did the Biden administration pass $42 billion for broadband in 2021 and have basically nothing to show for it by November of 2024? How did it get $7.5 billion for electric vehicle chargers but build only a few hundred chargers by the end of the term?

i.e., Democrats had some good ideas, took action to try to make them happen, but failed in the delivery. Good intentions matter, but are necessary, not sufficient.

Marc J. Dunkelman makes a similar argument in The Atlantic: How Progressives Broke the Government (an adoption of his new book Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress–And How to Bring It Back). Here are a couple of the relevant passages, aimed at the Progressive movement:

Progressives are so fearful of establishment abuse that reformers tend to prefer to tighten rather than loosen their grip on authority. The movement discounts whatever good the government might do in service of ensuring that it won’t do bad. And that’s driven well-intentioned reformers to insert so many checks into the system that government has been rendered incompetent.

At present, progressives are too inclined to cut public authority off at the knees. And that’s why they so often feel like they can’t win for losing. Their cultural aversion to power renders government incompetent, and incompetent government undermines progressivism’s political appeal.

America can’t build housing. We can’t deploy high-speed rail. We’re struggling to harness the promise of clean energy. And because government has failed in all these realms—because confidence in public authority has waned through the years—progressives have found it difficult to make a case for themselves.

What does any of this have to do with healthcare, much less NPCs? It’s this: we talk a good game about health care, especially Democrats, but we consistently fail to deliver. Pick your poll: Americans are critical of the healthcare system in general, of the quality of care, and especially its costs.  Americans hate Big Pharma, we hate health insurers, and our trust in doctors and hospitals has plummeted, especially since COVID.

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DEI Is Now a Four Letter Word

By KIM BELLARD

I’d love to be writing about something fun. Something that makes us think about things in a new way, or something exciting that will take us into the future. There are lots of such things happening, but there’s too many Orwellian actions happening that I can’t be silent about.

Diversity, we’re told, is actually a pretext for racism – against white people. Equity is foolhardy at best and pernicious at worst. Inclusion only matters if you are the “right” kind of person. “Meritocracy” is the new buzzword; we want only the “best and brightest,” with none of the lowering of standards that we’re being told comes with trying to ensure that everyone has a fair chance to prove their merits.

The Trump Administration has declared war on DEI. It has fired scores of workers whose jobs involve DEI, has asked other workers to inform on people they think may be involved in DEI, and is searching out even workers who attended diversity training (mandated or not). All that would be horrifying enough but it isn’t ending there.

Federal websites are being cleansed of any references to anything that might be construed as DEI. Pages are being edited, or taken down entirely. The NIH has ground to a halt until the appropriate authorities can ensure that no grants are being even to anything that might possibly be related to DEI. The CDC has been forced to pull papers from its researchers that are up for publication for similar review.

The Atlantic reports: “the government was, as of yesterday evening, intending to target and replace, at a minimum, several “suggested keywords”—including “pregnant people, transgender, binary, non-binary, gender, assigned at birth, binary [sic], non-binary [sic], cisgender, queer, gender identity, gender minority, anything with pronouns”—in CDC content.”

Thousands of pages of data from the CDC and Census Bureau have “disappeared,” and the same from other agencies. Health data is prominent among the missing. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, told Science: ““I knew it was going to be bad, but I didn’t know it was going to be this bad. It’s like a data apocalypse.”

Elon Musk, who has no official power yet seems to have control over government IT and the data it contains, is shutting down U.S.A.I.D., who provides almost $40b annually in health services, disaster relief, anti-poverty, and other social mission programs. Previously the Administration had shutdown, then reinstated, PEPFAR, a vital international HIV program that has been credited with saving millions of lives.

The President and his team even tried to blame last week’s Washington D.C. plane-helicopter collision on DEI.  That’s just “common sense, ok,” according to President Trump.

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Maybe AI Doesn’t Read Blueprints

By KIM BELLARD

Gosh, who knew that Jan 13 would be an AI day, with at least three major announcements about “blueprints” for its development going forward? Of course, these days every day is an AI day; trying to take in all AI-related news can be overwhelming. But before some other AI news drowns them out, I wanted to at least outline today’s announcements.

The three I’m referring to are the Biden Administration’s Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, OpenAI’s Economic Blueprint, and the UK’s AI-driven Plan for Change.  

The Biden Administration’s rules aim to preserve America’s lead in AI, stating: “it is essential that we do not offshore this critical technology and that the world’s AI runs on American rails.” It establishes who advanced chips can be sold to and how they can be used in other countries, with no restrictions on 18 key allies and partners.

It also sets limits on model weights for AI models, seeking to constrain non-preferred entities’ ability to train advanced AI models.

“The U.S. leads the world in AI now, both AI development and AI chip design, and it’s critical that we keep it that way,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a briefing with reporters ahead of Monday’s announcement

Not everyone is happy.

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You, Me, and Our Microbiome

By KIM BELLARD

You may have heard about the microbiome, that collection of microorganisms that fill the world around, and in, us. You may have had some digestive tract issues after a round of antibiotics wreaked havoc with your gut microbiome. You may have read about the rafts of research that are making it clearer that our health is directly impacted by what is going on with our microbiome. You may even take probiotics to try to encourage the health of your microbiome.

But you probably don’t realize how interconnected our microbiomes are.

Research published in Nature by Beghini, et. al., mapped microbiomes of almost 2,000 individuals in 18 scattered Honduras villages. “We found substantial evidence of microbiome sharing happening among people who are not family and who don’t live together, even after accounting for other factors like diet, water sources, and medications,” said co-lead author Francesco Beghini, a postdoctoral associate at the Yale Human Nature Lab. “In fact, microbiome sharing was the strongest predictor of people’s social relationships in the villages we studied, beyond characteristics like wealth, religion, or education.”

“Think of how different social niches form at a place like Yale,” said co-lead author Jackson Pullman. “You have friend groups centered on things like theater, or crew, or being physics majors. Our study indicates that the people composing these groups may be connected in ways we never previously thought, even through their microbiomes.”

“What’s so fascinating is that we’re so interconnected,” said Mr. Pullman. “Those connections go beyond the social level to the microbial level.”

Study senior author Nicholas Christakis, who directs the Human Nature Lab, explained that the research “reflects the ongoing pursuit of an idea we articulated in 2007, namely, that phenomena like obesity might spread not only by social contagion, but also by biological contagion, perhaps via the ordinary bacteria that inhabit human guts.” Other conditions, such as hypertension or depression, may also be spread by social transmission of the microbiome.

Professor Christakis thinks the findings are of broad importance, telling Science Alert: “We believe our findings are of generic relevance, not bound to the specific location we did this work, shedding light on how human social interactions shape the nature and impact of the microbes in our bodies.” But, he added: “The sharing of microbes per se is neither good nor bad, but the sharing of particular microbes in particular circumstances can indeed be good or bad.”

This research reminded me of 2015 research by Meadow, et. al., that suggested our microbiome doesn’t just exist in our gut, inside other parts our body, and on our skin, but that, in fact, we’re surrounded by a “personal microbial cloud.” Remember the Peanuts character Pigpen, who walked around in his personal dirt cloud? Well, that’s each of us, only instead of dirt we’re surrounded by our microbial cloud–and those clouds are easily discernable from each other.

Dr. Meadow told BBC at the time: “We expected that we would be able to detect the human microbiome in the air around a person, but we were surprised to find that we could identify most of the occupants just by sampling their microbial cloud.”

Those researchers predicted:

While indoors, we are constantly interacting with microbes other people have left behind on the chairs in which we sit, in dust we perturb, and on every surface we touch. These human-microbial interactions are in addition to the microbes our pets leave in our houses, those that blow off of tree leaves and soils, those in the food we eat and the water we drink. It is becoming increasingly clear that we have evolved with these complex microbial interactions, and that we may depend on them for our well-being (Rook, 2013). It is now apparent, given the results presented here, that the microbes we encounter include those actively emitted by other humans, including our families, coworkers, and perfect strangers.

Dr. Beghini and colleagues would agree, and further suggest that it’s not only indoors where we’re sharing microbes.

I would be remiss if I didn’t point out new research which found that our brains, far from being sterile, are host to a diverse microbiome and that impacts to it may lead to Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia.

Could we catch Alzheimer’s from someone else’s personal microbiome cloud? It’s possible. Could we prevent or even cure it by careful curation of the brain (or gut) microbiome? Again, possible.

The truth is that, despite decades of understanding that we have a microbiome, we still have a very limited understanding of what a healthy microbiome is, what causes it to not be healthy, what problems arise for us when it isn’t healthy, or what we can do to bring it (and us) to more optimal health. We’re still struggling to understand where besides our gut it plays a crucial role.

We now know that we can “share” parts of our microbiome with those around us, but not quite what the mechanisms for that are–e.g., touch, sharing objects, or having our personal clouds intersect.

We feel like we are where scientists were two hundred years ago in the early stages of the germ theory of disease. They knew germs impacted health, they even could connect some specific germs with specific diseases, they even had rudimentary interventions based on it, but much remained to be discovered. That led to vaccines, antibiotics, and other pharmaceuticals, all of which gave us “modern medicine,” but failed to anticipate the importance of the microbiome on our health.

Similarly, we’re justifiably proud of the progress we’ve made in terms of understanding our genetic structure and its impacts on our health, but fall far short of recognizing the vastly larger genetic footprint of the microbiome with which we co-exist.

A few years ago I called for “quantum theory of health”–not literally, but incorporating and surpassing “modern medicine” in the way that quantum physics upended classical physics. That kind of revolution would recognize that there is no health for us without our microbiome, and that “our microbiome” includes some portion of the microbiomes of those around us.  We talk about “personalized medicine,” but a quantum breakthrough for health would be treating each person as the symbiosis with our unique microbiome.

We won’t get to 22nd century medicine until we can assess the microbiome in which we exist and offer interventions to optimize it. I just hope we don’t have to wait until the 22nd century to achieve that.

Kim is a former emarketing exec at a major Blues plan, editor of the late & lamented Tincture.io, and now regular THCB contributor