Tag: George Halvorson

Kamala will Win The Popular Vote And No One Is Pointing Out That Absolute Certainty In The Popular Media

Oct 18, 2024

By GEORGE HALVORSON

I have been railing against the Electoral College (and the Senate) as anti-democratic forever, and no one much cares. Turns out George Halvorson noticed–Matthew Holt

We all need to remember that Joe Biden got 11,110,258 California votes in the last election and we need to know and remember that Donald Trump got 6,006,409 votes in that state.

Kamala Harris is on the same track as Biden in every survey and that means she will beat Trump by at least five million votes in that state and she will win the national vote total by at least that many votes because the other vote counts are basically tied and have many fewer voters than California.

The vote differences in other states like Arizona and Georgia are a few thousands votes but only California and New York have million vote differences and she is clearly winning by millions of votes in each of those states.

That means that Trump is guaranteed to lose the popular vote total again by millions of votes.

It’s not clear yet if they can somehow create an electoral college win from those vote totals but it is very clear and absolutely guaranteed for him to be millions of votes behind to start that process.

Large numbers of Americans will be extremely angry and upset if he loses the popular vote by almost ten million votes and somehow manages to get into the White House with that huge loss and pretends that he actually earned that victory with real votes. He will obviously be the biggest loser on the popular vote because there’s no way to make up the California and New York numbers.

That loss is absolutely guaranteed because those two states are doing for Harris exactly what they did for Biden and they are both even less supportive of Trump than they were against Biden.

The people who see him lose by ten million or more votes and then somehow claim and win the White House will probably protest that result with very visible descriptions of their unhappiness and anger and his ability to lead credibly in the face of that anger will probably be badly damaged and clearly labeled with brand damaging and clear description of what happened.

It would probably be better for the country if the electoral college results followed the actual popular vote.

Election night is going to be interesting.

The huge popular vote win will be visible very early because both California and New York numbers are so inevitable and so overwhelmingly against him that we won’t have to wonder or guess about those numbers at any point in the process.

The news media should be ready for that massive popular vote difference because we know now that those numbers are absolutely going to happen.

George Halvorson is Chair and CEO of the Institute for InterGroup Understanding and was CEO of Kaiser Permanente from 2002-14

Fake News from MedPac on Medicare Advantage Needs to Be Corrected, Part 2

Aug 29, 2024

By GEORGE HALVORSON

Special Needs Plans Change Lives for The Lowest Income and Highest Need Patients

The people who benefit the most from Medicare Advantage are clearly the very low-income and high health-need people who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid as programs and who enroll as members in the Medicare Advantage Special Needs Plan programs.

There clearly aren’t any other programs existing in our country that do more good for large numbers of needing people than the Medicare Advantage Special Needs Plans do for those members.

Those people with that dual eligibility are in major need for care.

We have millions of retirees who are eligible for both programs who have gone through years of inequities, inadequacies, and deficiencies relative to our care systems for a number of reasons, and who are now in need of care and support at multiple levels in their lives.

The plans do extremely good things for those high-need patients.

Medicare Advantage Special Needs Plan programs now help and provide services to millions of people who’ve actually never had good or adequate care in their entire lives.

The Special Needs Plan programs for Medicare Advantage reach into people’s homes and provide layers of service and support that are life changing, badly needed, and the Special Needs Plans are much appreciated, with very high satisfaction levels from the patients they serve for that better care and far better life support levels.

We tend, as a country, to abandon and under serve people in too many settings and communities who are old and who have no money and who are in significant need of care. The Medicare Advantage programs do wonderful and badly needed things for many of those patients that we need to understand, appreciate, and then protect as we look at Medicare Advantage plans and the overall Medicare Advantage programs and approaches.

The people at MedPac who are trying so hard to reduce the benefit levels for Medicare Advantage members and who do shamelessly inaccurate, distorted, and clearly intentionally fake news pieces on the cost of Medicare Advantage plans are trying to undermine and weaken the Special Needs Plan program in order to somehow create a level playing field with higher income patients for Medicare for the patients who get the most benefits from those programs.

That’s a very bad practice, and protecting those high-income people is a very wrong functional priority for MedPac to have. But they have it year after year in uncaring, insensitive, and cold ways relative to those patients and they seem impervious to data and information from all of the plans about those patients and that care, and their need for those benefits and services in their lives.

We need MedPac to clean up their act relative to their lowest income people, and we need them to start telling the truth about the actual relative cost of Medicare Advantage.

And we very much need them to understand how much the lowest income members need those benefits.

We need them to stop saying that the plans are overpaid when they know better from having more than 6 million people enrolled as Special Needs Plan members and benefit levels, and when they know that two out of three of the lowest income Members are in plans, and it should be painfully obvious to even the most cold-hearted observer, that those people clearly need the care and benefits that they get there from the plans.

The Medicare Advantage attacks from MedPac in their current report now say that the total cost of Medicare Advantage is 22% higher than those members would have cost as normal Medicare members.

They actually say in their most recent report that if all of the Medicare Advantage enrollees were now actually enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare, those enrollees who are currently in the plans would cost 22% less money for the overall Medicare program.

That’s obviously impossible and it’s a complete fabrication that they do not support in their document with even a wisp of data.

They use that false information, and they use a very skillful and intentional fake news context to attack the plans with that information.

Fake News from MedPac on Medicare Advantage Needs to Be Corrected, Pt 1

Aug 27, 2024

By GEORGE HALVORSON

MedPac has just released a report on Medicare Advantage that’s incorrect on multiple key points that need to be corrected.

Medicare Advantage currently enrolls the majority of Medicare members in the country, and it’s now the new basic plan for the Medicare program because of that majority enrollment level.

That’s very good news for Medicare because the average cost for those members is significantly less than those members would’ve cost under fee-for-service Medicare — and we can be comfortable and know that the lower cost is permanent because of the way we pay for the program.

The plans are paid a capitation for each member, and they’re not paid a fee for each piece of care that’s delivered to Medicare patients.

The capitation is an excellent purchasing approach for the program because it limits the amount paid for the enrollees, and when that amount, paid in capitation, is lower than the average cost of care for the traditional Medicare members, it guarantees that those lower costs will be paid for those members for the Medicare program, and that those costs will continue to be lower for Medicare.

The program that’s used to set the bids for the plans annually calculates the average cost of the traditional Medicare program in every county, and then lets the plans bid for the amount they will be paid for their members for the next year.

Those average costs for Medicare members are accurately calculated, and they’re based on consistent information that Medicare records, computes, and then reports on actual spending in every county by fee-for-service Medicare for the members every year.

The plans look at the information from the fee-for-service Medicare program in every county each year and then they each bid a capitation that’s always lower than that average cost, because those average Medicare costs are actually higher than the Plans need to provide the full set of required care for their members.

That bidding process guarantees that the plans will cost less than fee-for-service Medicare because it’s legitimately, appropriately and accurately based on the actual costs of that program in every county as the starting points for the bids each year.

We know that’s how much Medicare costs in every county using those numbers — and when the plans submit bids that are lower than that average cost, we know that the lower amount in those bids represents actual savings to the Medicare program.

In the world of insurance, having a bid that sets and determines the payment level for the coverage from every plan is a competent, appropriate, intellectually sound, financially legitimate, accurate, and fully functional payment approach and price for Medicare to spend on that coverage as a buyer.

Medicare is a buyer for Medicare Advantage and not just a payer as it is for the rest of the fee-for-service Medicare program.

Once the bid is set, all of the concerns, worries, risks, and uncertainties of the payment process that people used to have about the payments disappear, because that bid amount is exactly how much the plans will be paid for their members and it can’t be modified or changed in any way by the plans.

There are no possible upcoding approaches or risk pool manipulation processes or any possible subsequent plan fudging on the right cost for payments based on the risk levels of the patients that can happen for those payments because the capitation payment is the only one that Medicare will give to the plans, and that locks the cost in place.

That protection against future up coding problems is clear and true because the bids are the final payment to the plans, and there’s no way of doing any kind of risk-pool manipulation after the fact to create any level of overpayment after that capitation payment is made to each plan.

CMS Uses Good Encounter Data to Get that Risk-Level Information

CMS now has very good information about the actual risk levels of the members because they competently, appropriately, effectively and completely eliminated all of the old coding systems that were using estimates from the plans that they previously used to get the patient risk-level information to create the payments.

They replaced that old data flow from the plans with actual encounter data from the care delivered to each patient with information about each actual encounter, and that encounter data at the point of care ties back to the actual medical records that exist and that are used in the care settings for each patient.

The risk levels of the members in the plans are now determined and set by an extremely accurate process that uses the actual care encounter reports for each patient that are filed with the Medicare program to get each diagnosis for each piece of care.

There were some earlier systems for paying the plans that were built on plans filing data about the risk levels of the members, and there were some instances where some plans did filings in ways that upcoded and increased their payment levels, but CMS has actually completely eliminated and cancelled those old processes and reports, and now gets the needed diagnosis data for the payment system from the actual encounters that are filed by the providers for each piece of care.

We now have very current data about the patients, and the reporting process is extremely accurate in its information flow.

Medicare Advantage Has Saved Medicare

Jun 20, 2024

By GEORGE HALVORSON

The Program has also Helped Millions of Low-Income Retirees with Better Retirement Benefits and Needed Support Services

Medicare Advantage (MA) has saved Medicare. Half of those in Medicare are in MA and their care costs less on average. This means the Medicare Trust Fund is protected against future deterioration because MA’s cost increases continuously run below the average increase in Medicare Trust Fund revenue each year.

The capitation paid to MA plans for each member is based each year on the actual average cost of fee-for-service Medicare in every county. Payments to the plans are now running about 11% below that average cost.

The plans bid capitation levels that are below the average cost of fee-for-service Medicare every year because the plans deliver much better care. The functional truth that most policy people do not know or understand is that better care costs less money, when you design the system and the processes to achieve that result.

Fee-for-service Medicare is expensive and too often is poorly delivered. The fee-based payment model pays more for bad and failed care because when the caregivers are paid only by the piece, they have more pieces to deliver when care fails. They deliver and bill for even more pieces when the health of a member deteriorates. When inferior care creates complications and mishaps more pieces of care are needed for that patient.

Diabetic Blindness Reduced By 60% With Blood Sugar Control

MA plans bid capitation levels every year based on the financial opportunity created by that bad care in FFS. The plans know that diabetic blindness can be reduced by 60% or more if the patients have their blood sugar controlled. The plans set their capitation levels knowing that the average cost of care in every county includes the high level of blindness that happens when FFS providers do not help their patients achieve their blood sugar control goals and thus incur extra expenses for those patients.

The Medicare Advantage program has blood sugar control as a key focus point. That is important and relevant, because the plans can collect the capitation money that was created by no blood sugar controls, and then can and do reduce blindness significantly by achieving that goal. They spend significantly less money on those patients.

The MA payment program is set up to have the plans create financial surpluses from better care and then to have the plans use those surpluses to improve the benefits of their members. The plans create those surpluses and use them to pay for additional benefits–so the Medicare Advantage members have vision benefits, dental benefits, hearing benefits, and various social support benefits that do not exist in the traditional Medicare benefit package.

Those expanded benefits do not increase the cost of Medicare because they are created by the capitation cash flow that runs about 11%–17% below the actual average cost for fee-for-service Medicare in each county. That is a far better use of the Medicare dollar and it is not an additional expense for the program.

The plans identify which patients have congestive heart failure or asthma and then they work with those patients to significantly reduce their crisis levels and improve care for those patients. The MA members with those conditions have much better lives and they have less physical pain, stress, anxiety and damage because they avoid those crises. The better care results in 40% fewer days in the hospital for both of those conditions. Plans save money by having significantly better care for those patients.

Amputation Five-Year Mortality Rate is Over 40%

A major expense for the Medicare program is amputations. We have some of the highest amputation rates in the world for our lower income patients.

MA plans know that 90% of amputations are caused by foot ulcers. You can reduce foot ulcers by more than 60% just by having dry feet and clean socks. So the plans save billions of dollars that create surpluses in their capitation cash flow and they significantly improve the life expectancy of those patients just by providing those services consistently and intentionally to their diabetic members.

The five-year mortality rate for the people who have amputations ranges from 40%–80%. In their attacks on the program MA’s critics never mention those amputation numbers and those important and real death rates .

Special Needs Plans Now Serve Over 6 Million People

MA Special Needs Plans (SNP) just had their enrollment grow to 6.5 million members in January of this year. SNP enrollees are eligible for both Medicare coverage and Medicaid coverage. They have some of the highest health care needs in the country and too often have some of the lowest levels of resources to deal with basic aspects of their lives and their care.

The critics also don’t mention that the SNPs do life changing and extremely beneficial work for the lowest-income and highest-need people in the Medicare program.

Millions of people enrolled in SMP plans have been badly impacted by various social determinants of health issues, as well as by care delivery failures for their entire lives. SNPs are often the first organized care related support that millions of those patients have had for their personal care.

People With Weak Retirement Plans Need the Additional Benefits

Those who look at the Medicare program need to understand and appreciate the fact that the expanded benefit package from the plans is often extremely important and directly relevant to the daily lives of millions of people. They are retired but have few assets and low levels of financial support for their retirement years.

We are no longer at the point where retirees in America can rely on a pension plan and basic retirement benefits after they retire. Fewer than half of retirees today have a pension payment or a deferred compensation plan of any kind. Most retirees have a low cash reserves to use to purchase needed services and benefits in their retirement years.

There is a solid set of reasons why almost 90% of our lowest income Medicare beneficiaries are now enrolled in MA plans. There are also obvious reasons why those numbers include more than 70% of African-Americans and more than 80% of Hispanics. Additionally, MA has language competency requirements for Hispanic enrollees that do not exist for fee-for-service Medicare.

Medicare Is Now Profitable as a Total Program Because of Medicare Advantage

Feb 7, 2024

By GEORGE HALVORSON

Medicare made $83.4 billion very real dollars in 2022. The 17% discounts below the average cost of fee-for-service Medicare, that happen in every county for Medicare Advantage, have been very real and extremely successful in paying for Medicare coverage — in a way that now makes the program a profit center for the US Government.

You can see the actual financial report page from the 2023 Medicare trustee report below. It shows that the Medicare trust fund grew in 2022 for the first time in decades. More than half of the Medicare members are now enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. Those members cost significantly less than their equivalent fee-for-service Medicare patients.

These are the actual numbers from the trustee report.

The Medicare trustee report says that the total Medicare program grows per member by 6.7% every year. They project in that report that they expect that rate of increase to be consistent over the next decade. The enrollees in the Medicare Part A and Part B programs have expenses that increase slightly above that number every year. That’s been true for a couple of decades.

Medicare loses money on every Part A and Part B member when expenses for those programs are higher than the 6.7% average.

Medicare Advantage costs for Medicare Part C are increasing at a lower rate than that number. That means that Medicare makes money and creates a surplus with the Medicare Advantage patients.

The Truth About Medicare Advantage Saving Medicare

Jun 21, 2023• 2

BY GEORGE HALVORSON

We know from the current annual report from the Medicare trustees that Medicare Advantage is saving Medicare, and that Medicare will be a much stronger program as Medicare Advantage continues to grow.

When we look at actual numbers from that report, we see that Medicare Advantage cost Medicare $403.3bn last year.

The report shows that Medicare is growing 6.7% each year in total revenue. We see that Medicare Parts A and B have expense growth that slightly exceeds 8%, and that Medicare Advantage is projected to have expense growth of 4.2% for the year.

That means we’re losing money from the fee-for-service part of the Medicaid program — and that is eating into the Medicare trust fund. We also can see that Medicare Advantage is making a surplus for Medicare, and is increasing the size of the fund.

We know that Medicare Advantage bids against the average cost of Medicare in every county to create the capitation levels for each year. Those bids are typically discounted by 15% (or more) from the average Medicare cost.

Those discounted bids cost Medicare less in actual dollars each month. The Medicare Advantage critics speculate about coding levels for the plans, but the Medicare trust fund doesn’t care about codes.

They only care about actual dollars. When you look at actual dollars, we see that Medicare spent $403.3bn to pay for the coverage with Medicare Advantage plans.

All Three Legs of the Obamacare Stool Are Working Well

Feb 15, 2023• 3

BY GEORGE HALVORSON

When the Affordable Care Act was passed, the politics were so intense and the debates were so filled with rhetoric in all directions that most people actually didn’t understand that there were three major component parts to the strategy and program that function very directly as a package, and should be looked at now in the context of several years of implementation to see how each part of that law is currently doing.

Medicaid was our first priority.

The first component part — and the one that had the highest need for passage when the law was passed because we were doing such a horrible job as a country in providing coverage to our children and to our low-income people — was Medicaid expansion.

We were the only country in the industrialized world that did not have health care available to our low-income children, and that deficiency damaged so many people and was so terrible as a reality that we needed to correct it as soon as we could.

That program is on the right track.

Most states have now used the full Medicaid package and we now have a total of 90 million people enrolled in Medicaid. About 41 million of the members are in the CHIPS program, and a majority of the births in a majority of the states are now Medicaid births.

The states have all used a number of modern care improvement tools to provide and deliver significantly better care than the old Medicaid programs that are far too often delivered to their beneficiaries.

Medicare Advantage UpCoding Has Been Eliminated by CMS Effective 2022

Jan 23, 2023• 2

By GEORGE HALVORSON

Medicare Advantage now enrolls almost exactly half the people enrolled in Medicare — and has both significant fans and hardline opponents in the health care policy circles who disagree about its performance.

The biggest attack point that comes from the critics deals with the issues of coding accuracy by the plans. The payment model for the program is capitation — and that capitation is based on the average cost of fee-for-service Medicare in every county. The people who designed the model believed that the country should use the average cost of fee-for-service Medicare in every county as the baseline number and should have the plans paid less than that average Medicare cost going forward every year in their capitation cash flow.

Medicare fee-for-service has a strict and consistent payment level based on a list of approved Medicare services — and they add up the cost of those services in every county and let the plans bid a lower number than that fee for service Medicare cost, if the plans believe they can offer all of the basic benefits and possibly add more benefits and additional services for that amount.

The fee-for-service Medicare cash flow and costs in each county tend to be very stable over time, with a continuous and steady increase in the actual functional cost for taking care of those fee-for-service patients for each year that they receive care. That total cost of fee-for-service Medicare care is a visible and clear baseline number that we can use each year with confidence and knowledge that it is what we are spending now on those Medicare members in the counties.

The direct capitation amount that is then paid to each of the plans is based on the age, gender, health status, and diagnosis profile of the Medicare Advantage members who enroll in the plans. The plans have been reporting those patient profile numbers to the government through the Risk Adjustment Processing System (RAPS) over a couple of decades to set up their payment levels and to create the monthly cash flow for each plan.

That’s where the upcoding accusations relative to the plans arise.

The plans get paid more if the patients have more expensive diagnoses — so the plans have had a strong and direct incentive to make sure that every diabetic enrollee is recorded and reported as being diabetic for their RAPS filings.

They also have a strong incentive to be sure that every congestive heart failure patient has their diagnosis recorded in their RAPS report.

We Should Channel People Into Medicare Advantage Plans Where They Won’t Have Amputations or Go Blind (Part 2)

Sep 6, 2022• 1

By GEORGE HALVORSON

Former Kaiser Permanente CEO George Halvorson has written on THCB on and off over the years, most notably with his proposal for Medicare Advantage for All post-COVID. He wrote a piece in Health Affairs last year arguing with the stance of Medicare Advantage of Don Berwick and Rick Gilfillan (Here’s their piece pt1, pt2). We also published his criticism (Part 1. Part 2. Part 3) of Medpac’s analysis of Medicare Advantage. Now Medpac is meeting again and George is wondering why they don’t seem to care about diabetic foot amputations. We published part one last week. This is part two– Matthew Holt

We have more amputations and we have more people going blind in our fee for service Medicare program today because we buy care so badly and because we have no quality programs or care linkages for our chronically Ill patients and our low income people in that program.

We have far better care in our Medicare Advantage programs at multiple levels today, and we should be building on that better care for everyone.

The important and invisible truth is that we have major successes in providing better care to Medicare Advantage members across the entire spectrum of that package of care. The sad truth is that MedPac actually keeps those huge differences in care performance by the plans secret from the Congress and from the American public for no discernable or legitimate reason.

We have an epidemic of amputations that are causing almost a fifth of our fee for service diabetes patients who get foot ulcers to lose limbs. The number of patients in both standard Medicare Advantage and in the Medicare Advantage Special Needs Programs who undergo amputations and who have that functional and dysfunctional care failure is a tiny fraction of that number.

MedPac pretends the program does not exist. They did a lengthy study on the overall special needs dual eligible program for Medicare a year ago without mentioning the plans or describing any of the things that the plans to do make care better for those patients.

We know that in fee for service Medicare, 20% percent of diabetes patients routinely get ulcers and 20% of those ulcers to turn into amputations. There are far fewer amputations for Medicare Advantage plan members—and we have failed our overall Medicare population badly by not sharing that information more broadly at open enrollment time.

Medicare Advantage Five Star quality plans that have created a culture of quality improvement at many care sites. Those plans compete fiercely on quality goals and take pride in attaining and celebrating the highest scores. We started with less than 10% of plans with the highest scores for the first enrollment periods. Now more than 90% of Medicare Advantage members are able to choose between four and five star plans.

The quality measurements that are missing from the set of consumer choices are the ones that relate to the most serious issues for the consumers—and that’s where MedPac should be putting the right set of information on the table to compare the two systems of care. Large amounts of data show that amputations caused by diabetes follow very predictable patterns.

Roughly 33% of Medicare patients will have diabetes. 20% of diabetics will have ulcers. That number goes up to 30% for some patient groups—but you can count of at least 20% overall to have ulcers. We know that the overarching pattern in fee for service Medicare is for 20% of those ulcers to end up needing and getting amputations.

MedPAC Got It Wrong (pt 3)

Apr 5, 2022

By GEORGE HALVORSON

This is the third part of former Kaiser Permanente CEO George Halvorson’s critique of Medpac’s new analysis of Medicare Advantage. Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. Eventually I’ll be doing a summary article about all the back and forth about what Medicare Advantage really costs!-Matthew Holt

Risk status and RAF

What is on the MedPac radar screen and what keeps their attention and what actually takes up several long portions of the annual report this year is the other factor that changes the payment levels to the plans — the risk status of their enrollees.

The capitation levels that are paid to the plans are affected very directly by the health status levels of the actual enrollees.

Risk levels for the members set and change the payment levels for the plans. The very first capitation programs didn’t factor in relative risk status for the members, and it was possible for some care sites to make major profits on capitation just by enrolling healthier than average people and by being paid an average cost level for each area for the people they enrolled.

That initial payment process has evolved very intentionally into having diagnosis-based cost factors that attempt to link the health status of the members and a fair payment level for the plans. The plans identify for the risk filing process the diagnosis levels for the members and their payment levels as plans are directly affected by the risk levels they report for their members.

People have had some concern about whether some parts of that coding process have been done badly, incorrectly or with purely avaricious intent.

There have been significant levels of concern expressed about whether the plans might be able and willing to produce and present inaccurate and distorted information in the process. That alarm was triggered in part by the fact that some of the plans made getting that information into their annual filings a high priority and some were more successful than others in that process.

It is good to have accurate diagnosis information.

We actually should as a nation and a health care macro system want to see an expansion of our data base and our medical records on basic levels of diagnostic information.

As a nation and as a macro care system we should definitely want to have full diagnosis information for each patient. Care can be better when caregivers have the right diagnosis for all of their patients.

How CMS has changed Risk Adjustment

CMS just did a brilliant thing and completely eliminated the filing system and process for risk coding and data.

The CMS Hierarchical Conditions Categories Risk Adjustment Model was just killed. CMS just took the system that has created the vast majority of concerns and churn about the issues of coding intensity and shut it down.

It no longer is a factor for any risk scores. CMS will still look at the relative risk levels of patients but will get that information completely from patient encounter filings and direct patient information and not from any plan filings or reports.

An entire industry of organizations working to enhance risk scores just became obsolete and irrelevant.