The release of this year’s Medicare Trustees report was unprecedented. As noted in previous posts here and at my blog here and here, Medicare’s chief actuary not only refused to sign off on it, he disowned it — encouraging readers to ignore it and focus instead on an alternative report, prepared by the office of the Medicare actuaries.
So what’s the difference in the two reports? It all relates to the health reform bill that passed last spring. The formal trustees report shows health reform dramatically reducing future Medicare spending. In fact, it is so dramatic that even the White House seems reluctant to talk about it — perhaps because it’s prima facie unbelievable.
Consider this: In 2009, the trustees reported that (looking indefinitely into the future) Medicare had an unfunded liability of $89 trillion. This year, the trustees report that number has fallen by more than half to $36.6 trillion. If the numbers are to be believed, health reform has already saved us $53 trillion — a sum more than three times greater than our entire gross domestic product!