For your weekend fun read—soon to be featured in THCB conservative—David Hogberg’s review of Reggie’s new book Who Killed Healthcare in The American Spectator. Hoggy of course thinks she’s too left-wing in that she’s in favor of an individual mandate. Of course I haven’t ready this book yet although I’m prepared to guess what’s in it. Let’s just hope that Reggie’s next forecast is a little more accurate than this one she made in 1998.
As my book describes, the market forces that revolutionized the once-bloated U.S. economy are now reshaping health care. Activist consumers’ demands for accountability, convenience, and control are making the system more informative and accessible. The focused-factory concepts that revived the nation’s manufacturing sector and fashioned its world-class service sector are now shaping high-quality, cost-controlled health care delivery systems. And the sort of technological innovations that have increased productivity since the Industrial Revolution are improving the quality of health care while controlling costs. Brilliant entrepreneurs are using the managerial lessons learned from successes such as SamWalton to create a better, cheaper,more accessible health care system.
And just to be fair and a good sport this prediction stuff is very hard. So to prove it I’ll lay some of my ghosts. The 1997 IFTF 10 Year Forecast for which I wrote the relevant part suggested rather more success in cost containment …although I had rather different reasons for thinking that was coming about. Here’s the most wrong part of the whole IFTF 10 Year Forecast:
The biggest change in the health insurance market over the past 10 years has been the fast growth of HMO enrollment. In 1998, more than 76 million Americans were enrolled in HMOs, and a majority were in some kind of a managed care plan. By 2005, HMOs will capture the majority of the commercial market and more than 25 percent of the Medicare market. Sixty percent of Medicaid recipients will be in some form of HMO by the year 2010.3 Among this plethora of new products, it will be increasingly difficult to distinguish one health plan from another. They’ll all offer similar—and often the same— providers and pay those providers through a mixture of discounted FFS and capitation (a flat fee per patient). By 2005, more than 100 million people will be in these “HMO descendants.”
The health insurance market will evolve into a mix of different health plan models, many of which will spend the next several years in a constant flurry of reorganization and mergers. Four dominant “intermediary” models will emerge by 2005: the case manager, the provider partner, the high-end FFS broker, and the safety-net funder. As a result, in 2007 close to 50 percent of the population will be in health plans for which cost containment is a key issue. Despite all the pressures toward increasing costs in the system, these new strategies will be successful enough to keep costs from exploding again as they did from 1960 to 1990.