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It is now becoming clear that the Obama administration will not have Health.care.gov fixed by December 1 so hundreds of thousands, or perhaps millions, of people will be able to smoothly enroll by January 1.

Why do I say that? Look at this from the administration spokesperson’s daily Healthcare.gov progress report on Friday:

Essentially what is happening is people [those working on the fixes] are going through the entire process. As we have fixed certain pieces of functionality, like the account creation process, we’re seeing volume go further down the application. We’re identifying new issues that we need to be in a position to troubleshoot.

Does that sound like the kind of report you would expect if they were on track to fix this in less than three weeks? Their biggest problem is that they admittedly don’t know what they don’t know.

The spokesperson also reiterated the administration intends to have Obamacare’s computer system “functioning smoothly for the vast majority of users” by the end of the month.

It’s time for the Obama administration to get real.

It takes months to properly test a complex data system like this. Two things are obvious:

  1. When they launched on October 1, very little of the testing had been completed.
  2. They are now in the midst of that many months long testing and fixing period. It is clear they don’t have a few weeks of work left; they have months of work left.
    As Senate Finance Chair Max Baucus (D-MT) told HHS Secretary Sebelius last week, if you aren’t going to make your goal to get this fixed by the end of November tell us sooner, don’t wait until the end.

We can all debate just how many people will eventually sign-up for Obamacare or whether the administration has any chance of making its first year goal of 7 million people. But, there is no doubt in my mind that hundreds of thousands if not millions of people do want to sign-up and be covered on January 1. Clearly, there are lots of people who have been patiently waiting for the day they could get coverage for their pre-existing conditions and who need the subsidies to buy insurance. And, then there are the millions who have already received their cancellation notices in the individual market and need to enroll in a new plan by January 1.

The administration needs a Plan B and they need it now. To get one, they can’t be working on it themselves. They will need the help of the insurance industry, the state insurance regulators, and the many navigator organizations that have been sitting in a frustrating limbo since October 1.

What might a Plan B look like?


The Corner They Are In

First, it is important to understand some of the obstacles Obamacare is up against.

Millions of people are facing those cancellation letters. Ideally, we could just say, never mind––let these people simply stay on their current policies. But here’s maybe the biggest irony in this whole mess. The Obama administration may not be ready for Obamacare but the insurance industry is. The health insurance companies spent the last many months rolling their old policies off the books and replacing them with the 2014 Obamacare compliant products––Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum.

Cancellation letters have been sent. Their computer systems took months to program in order to be able to send the letters out and set up the terminations on their systems. Even post-Obamacare, the states regulate the insurance market. The old products are no longer filed for sale and rates are not approved. I suppose it might be possible to get insurance commissioners to waive their requirements but even if they did how could the insurance industry reprogram systems in less than a month that took months to program in the first place, contact the millions impacted, explain their new options (they could still try to get one of the new policies with a subsidy), and get their approval?

The Obama administration told the carriers to be ready on October 1 and they are ready. You just can’t waive a magic wand and put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

And then we need to remember that these cancelled policies––over 4 million and counting––are in two distinctly different classes:

  1. Policies written since March of 2010 that by statute cannot be grandfathered. The grandfather provisions of the new law apply only to people who had a policy in force on the day the law was passed in 2010. This makes up about half of the policies being cancelled.
  2. Policies in force the day the law was passed are the only ones subject to the very narrow administration’s grandfather rules. Any policy, for example, where the consumer chose to raise the plan’s deductible in order to avoid a rate increase––a very common thing––from something like $1,000 to $1,500, has lost its grandfather status. That is almost certainly the majority of this class of policies and why so many are being cancelled.

As I have said on this blog before, all of the 50% of policies in the first class and most of the policies in the second class likely total about 80% of the existing individual health insurance market that have received, or are going to receive by the end of 2014, cancellation letters.

Then there are all of those people who want to buy coverage for the first time on January 1. Like those who have received cancellation letters, they also have to sign-up by December 15 to have any hope of being on the rolls by January 1. And, no one ever planned for the possibility that we would have back end-loaded hundreds of thousands or even millions of people into a two-week period between December 1 and December 15.

The administration has said that people can sign-up via the call centers or through navigators using paper applications. But really, they cannot. First, it is almost impossible to have any understanding of what are often dozens of complex insurance plan options by talking to the call center over the phone. And, call centers or navigators, rarely are they able to get much information on just which doctors and hospitals are in which plans. Then, if they do sign-up, any application they complete gets stuck in the same computer mess everyone is dealing with online. Only a very tiny trickle of people get their enrollments through to the insurance companies.

One of the things the carriers and the private exchanges asked the Obama administration for months ago was to enable the private exchanges and insurers to access Healthcare.gov in order to be able to calculate subsidies for people and sign them up directly. The administration did not make this a high priority and it is still not done. As a result, carriers can sign people up directly through their websites or call centers but cannot get them subsidies.

Plan B?
So what could the administration now do?

I would suggest a number of things:

  1. Stop telling people to keep trying to sign-up via the federal government website or the call center until things really do work. Their efforts are getting nowhere with only a trickle of people making it through the gauntlet every day.
  2. To help those who have had their insurance cancelled; the administration should encourage the use of the early renewal programs many insurers have offered that let them keep their coverage until at least December 1, 2014. Then, by December 2014, change the regulations and statute so they can keep these policies longer. The administration should also encourage states that have prohibited this early enrollment practice to allow it, as well as insurers who have not yet offered it.
  3. Encourage people to call the insurers and private exchanges serving their states directly. The administration should post those phone numbers and web addresses on the first page of Healthcare.gov. If they went directly to insurers, people would have to access multiple insurer sites to shop rather than the one-stop shopping the federal exchange would have provided. If they went to private exchanges, they would have the full shopping experience. However, in either case, they would not be able to get a subsidy by going direct as long as the insurers and private exchanges are unable to access the federal subsidy system. But they could get signed up for coverage by January 1. While this would not help people without the money to buy a policy, everyone would ultimately get the entire subsidy they are entitled to as part of their 2014 tax filing.
  4. Build, as the very top system priority, the subsidy calculation bridge the insurers and private exchanges have been requesting for months but the administration made a lower priority well before October 1. If insurers and private exchanges have the ability to access the subsidy calculator and enroll people in the subsidy program, the administration will have built a workaround system for the interim so people who could not otherwise afford coverage would be able to get a subsidy

Does each of these suggestions have major drawbacks?

Yes.

But this administration has now painted itself into a terrible corner. People’s policies are canceled, they can’t smoothly access Healthcare.gov, and many are facing big unforeseen increases in premiums and out-of-pocket costs as well as provider restrictions. People who have been waiting patiently for guaranteed issue subsidized health insurance can’t get to it and there is little hope they will find a smoothly running system capable of handling an enormously back-loaded demand in the two weeks between December 1 and December 15.

The administration needs a Plan B and they need it now!

Robert Laszewski has been a fixture in Washington health policy circles for the better part of three decades. He currently serves as the president of Health Policy and Strategy Associates of Alexandria, Virginia. You can read more of his thoughtful analysis of healthcare industry trends at The Health Policy and Marketplace Blog, where this post first appeared.

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30 Responses for “A Plan B For Healthcare.gov?”

  1. Don't Go Back to Rockville says:

    1. Move ALL deadlines back.
    2. Bring the private sector in – allow signups on private sites
    3. Fix Healthcare.gov
    4. Have the IRS notify and prequalify eligible taxpayers
    5. Go back to the drawing board. Recruit the tech industry and have the best and brightest build us something better than what we’re getting, which is clearly not much of a solution.

  2. Bobby Gladd says:

    This whole mess is a total CusterFluck.

    Google “REC Blog KatrinaCare”

  3. Someone please explain statement at end of paragraph 3 above the author says if people sign up through their insurer by January 1, they “would ultimately get the entire subsidy they are entitled to as part of their 2014 tax filing.”
    This is the first I have heard that you can eventually get the Obamacare subsidy without going through the Obamacare exchanges, call centers or navigators

    • jonathan says:

      This is one of his recommendations, it is not the law. Like many of his recommendations it also, without acknowledging it, creates further difficulty for administrators. In this case CMS would to create a back end process applying all those subsidies when policies are purchased directly. It sounds simple when written in three sentences, but it is not.

      Also, the author keeps talking about the need to enroll by January 1. That is NOT the requirement. Open enrollment was always until March 2014. I believe CMS has also removed any pro-rated penalty as long as you enroll at some point during the open enrollment period.

      • t says:

        If you actually want to be covered with insurance on January 1, the deadline is December 15.

        Unfortunately, you’re only thinking about what’s best for Obama, not what’s best for insurees.

  4. Tony Jewell says:

    I have done a handful of posts here about my challenges navigating the system and why I felt urgency to get a plan picked and registration complete.

    Now, however, I honestly have no idea what to do. I have no idea if I will be able to sign up. I have little interest in keeping my COBRA plan through all of next year (giant donut hole in the plan). But I don’t want to sign up for something that won’t be there.

    It’s just about mid-November and I – like so many others – just don’t know what to do. It’s a really weird situation.

    • jonathan says:

      What do you mean sign up for something that won’t be there? Any plan you sign up for on the exchange will be there for the duration of the policy term.

  5. Alfred says:

    European countries offer publicly funded health insurance (through taxation). why can’t we use the same model?

    • Lisa says:

      Alfred, I wish we had that option. Or alternatively, we could use the Japanese model where insurance companies are required to be non-profit.

      • jonathan says:

        Lisa, most Blues plans and a decent number of regional HMOs are non-profit. Even the for-profit plans tend to have margins in the area of 3-5%, so insurer profit is not one of the main drivers of health care costs.

        Alfred, some European countries do that. Others use separate insurance organizations (Germany, The Netherlands, Switzerland and the other nations have private insurance as a supplemental or alternative option, like France and even the UK).

  6. Barry Carol says:

    If people are unable to buy a policy through the federal exchange by December 15th, I think those who had policies purchased in the individual market that were cancelled because their benefits are not ACA compliant should be able to purchase a new policy that’s effective on January 1, 2014 if they get sick after that but before the exchange is up and running. The government (taxpayers) should then reimburse the insurer for all incurred and paid medical claims between January 1st and when the exchange is fully operational in excess of 80% of the premium. The open enrollment period and the implementation of the penalty should also be pushed back while insurers should get additional help in covering the likely cost of adverse selection in 2014.

  7. Patrick says:

    Wrote a post myself on how the gov’t could’ve used startup economics to get a better result aka The Healthcare Hunger Games

    http://venturebeat.com/2013/11/11/healthcare-hunger-games/

  8. Joel Hassman, MD says:

    I think the larger question is we are now into the middle of November, millions of people are being disrupted at the very least, if not having their health being risked for serious morbidity and mortality issues, and we hear the President and his blind loyal minions just keep saying “it is a small part of the population.”

    Oh, if this political group just said outright “we can sacrifice the lives of 5% of our population to save the rest of America”, will people then be a bit more outraged then?!

    Yeah, the Democrat minions have no reply, until some in there find out they are in that 5% group.

    Fascinating how people are quick to change their opinions when the outcomes affect them personally.

    Umm, reality check for you all not working for or as political leaders, they are not impacted by this law at all. So, they will never change their opinions. Remember that little fact as “we find out what is in this bill”, and remember to thank Nancy for pressing passage for that little outcome!!!

  9. Lynne says:

    Those of us who WANT to be insured as of January 1 and who currently have plans which are being cancelled need to be assured by the government that we will get the subsidies we’ve been promised even if the web site isn’t able to get the subsidy information to our insurers by December 15 (which is when the bills will go out).

    I don’t care if the individual mandate is delayed. I don’t care about most of what the media is discussing. Nobody seems to acknowledge that there are people out here (like myself) who want this to work the way it is supposed to work and when it is supposed to work.

    The government needs to address the situation of how subsidies will be paid if insurers can’t access that information by the time they send out the bills.

    I think I should be able to print out a copy if my “official” subsidy determination letter from healthcare.gov, send it to my insurer, and then pay them the difference between the premium and subsidy amount. Let my insurer be responsible for getting the subsidy from the government whenever they figure out how to verify the amount.

  10. Becky145 says:

    I believe the healthcare in america should run the same way as it does in the UK, everybody should be entitle to a free healthcare system

  11. Sadie Louise says:

    I totally agree!

  12. Becky145 says:

    surely it would be better to have a healthcare system which is paid by through taxes? In my opinion any healthcare needed up until obama care takes place,funding should reimburse the money

  13. Jonno says:

    The government needs to address the situation of how subsidies will be paid if insurers can’t access that information by the time they send out the bills.

  14. Becky145 says:

    I believe that a free healthcare system is massively beneficial to the country ,although this system will take months to prepare, it will be worth it in the end…if it happens

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  15. Rebecca Pugina says:

    Whether you hate obamacare or love it you will laugh your head off with the obamacare band aids http://www.ebay.com/itm/291031373141?ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1555.l2649 

  16. Someone please explain on which the author of the end of the 3rd paragraph above statement said, signed up for January 1 through its insurer, they “will eventually get what they are entitled to as part of their 2014 tax returns, the entire subsidy. ”
    This is the first time I heard you can get allowance will not communicate by Obama Barack Obama, call centre or pilot

  17. The pharmaceutical companies are in business for big profits that their share holders demand. As I have stated many times, we Americans need to turn our backs on the federal government to begin anew in our own right. To hell with the law making share holders.
    http://insuranceexchangehq.com/affordable-care-act-and-young-peoples-growing-disillusionment-harvards-millennials-poll/

  18. Life Ant says:

    Another acknowledged loophole in Obamacare: short-term insurance. If you’re healthy you can sign up for low rates from a company not participating in the exchanges. Coverage lasts until the next open enrollment period. If you’re sick, you’re in Obamacare. If you’re healthy, you re-enroll until the next open enrollment.

    This evasion of Obamacare can be effective if widely known.

  19. The report fits an established U.S. intelligence picture of North Korea making an enormous effort to become a nuclear power and of an economically poor country directing a disproportionate amount of resources to its military.

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