CMS began two Medicare ACO experiments in 2012 – the Pioneer program and the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP). Data on these programs available at CMS’s website paints a discouraging picture of the programs’ ability to cut costs. But two papers published in the last two years in the Journal of the American Medical Association paint a much rosier picture. A paper written by David Nyweide et al. claimed to find the Pioneer ACO program generated gross savings two times more in 2012, and slightly more in 2013, than CMS reported. Similarly, a paper by J. Michael McWilliams claimed to find the MSSP program saved money in 2014 while CMS’s data says it lost money.
What explains the discrepancy? Answer: The JAMA papers examined simulated ACO programs, not the actual Pioneer and MSSP programs. Moreover, Nyweide et al. neglected to report that shared savings payments would have greatly reduced the gross savings, and both Nyweide et al. and McWilliams ignored the start-up and maintenance costs the ACOs incurred. (JAMA’s editors redeemed themselves somewhat by publishing a comment by former CMS administrator Mark McClellan which warned readers that Nyweide et al. failed to measure the “shared savings payments to the ACOs” and “the investments of time and money” made by the ACOs.)

In these first days of the Trump Administration, there is a great deal of uncertainty, but it’s clear that healthcare will remain in the spotlight. Repealing and replacing “Obamacare” is still at the top of the Republican party’s—and President Trump’s—agenda.


