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The Evidence Crisis: Causal Inference – Don’t be a chicken (Part 3)

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By ANISH KOKA

Part 1

Part 2

Physicians have been making up numbers longer than people have been guessing weights at carnivals.  How much does this statin lower the chances of a heart attack? How long do I have to live if I don’t get the aortic valve surgery?

In clinics across the land confident answers emerge from doctors in white coats.  Most of the answers are guesses based on whatever evidence about the matter exists applied to the patient sitting in the room.  The trouble is that the evidence base used to be the provenance of experts and anecdotes that have in the past concluded leeches were good for pneumonia.

And so came the randomized control trial to separate doctors from homeopaths.  Random assignment seeks to achieve balance between two groups for everything but the treating variable to isolate the effect of the treatment.  But does randomization really guarantee a balance between groups?  At least the known confounders may be measured in the two groups, but what about unknown confounders?

Continue reading…

Self-Driving Cars are Like Most EMRs

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by HANS DUVEFELT, MD

Drivers are distracted klutzes and computers could obviously do better. Self driving cars will make all of us safer on he road.

Doctors have spotty knowledge and keep illegible records. EMRs with decision support will improve the quality of healthcare.

The parallels are obvious. And so far the outcomes are disappointing on both fronts of our new war against human error.

I remember vividly flunking my first driving test in Sweden. It was early fall in 1972. I was in a baby blue Volvo with a long, wiggly stick shift on the floor. My examiner had a set of pedals on the passenger side of the car. At first I did well, starting the car on a hill and easing up the clutch with my left foot while depressing and then slowly releasing the brake pedal with my right forefoot and at the same time giving the car gas with my right heel.

I stopped appropriately for some pedestrians at a crosswalk and kept a safe distance from the other cars on the road.

A few minutes later, the instructor said “turn left here”. I did. That was the end of the test. He used his pedals. It was a one way street.

Three times this spring, driving in the dark between my two clinics, I have successfully swerved, at 75 miles (121 km) per hour, to avoid hitting a moose standing in the middle of the highway. Would a self driving car have done as well or better? Maybe, maybe not.

Every day I get red pop up warnings that the diabetic medication I am about to prescribe can cause low blood sugars. I would hope it might.

Almost daily I read 7 page emergency room reports that fail to mention the diagnosis or the treatment. Or maybe it’s there and I just don’t have enough time in my 15 minute visit to find it.

For a couple of years one of my clinics kept failing some basic quality measures because our hasty orientation to our EMR (there was a deadline for the incentive monies to purchase EMRs) resulted in us putting critical information in the wrong “results” box. When our scores improved, it had nothing to do with doing better for our patients, only clicking the right box to get credit for what we had been doing for decades before.

Our country has a naive and childish fascination with novelties. We worship disrupting technologies and undervalue continuous quality improvement, which was the mantra of the industrial era. It seems so old fashioned today, when everything seems to evolve at warp speed.

But the disasters of these new technologies should make us slow down and examine our motives. Change for the sake of change is not a virtue.

I know from my everyday painful experiences that EMRs often lack the most basic functionalities doctors want and need. Seeing a lab result without also seeing if the patient is scheduled to come back soon, or their phone number in case they need a call about their results, is plainly speaking a stupid interface design.

I know most EMRs weren’t created by doctors working in 15 minute appointments. I wonder who designed the software for self driving cars…

Hans Duvefelt is a family doctor in Maine. This piece was first published at his blog A Country Doctor Writes

Health in 2 point 00 -Episode 35, Shafi Ahmed takeover edition

Jessica DaMassa’s European tour continues. This week she’s at the #WebIT conference in Sofia, Bulgaria (no, I couldn’t find it on a map either!) and the #HealthIn2Point00 takeovers continue! This time the guest is pioneering British surgeon Shafi Ahmed, who has lots to say about medical education, the future of digital hospitals, what he’s up to in Bolivia and how cool #WebITHealth will be–Matthew Holt

Information Blocking–Gropper & Peel Weigh in

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Deborah C. Peel
Adrian Gropper

By ADRIAN GROPPER & DEBORAH PEEL

Today is the last day for public comments on the proposed CMS regulations regarding Medicare hospital inpatient prospective payment systems (IPPS). While there are several changes proposed, the one that’s raised lots of attention has been the idea that access to Medicare may be denied to those providers guilty of information blocking. Here are the comments submitted by Gropper & Peel from Patients Privacy Rights— Matthew Holt

Executive Summary of PPR Comments on Information Blocking

Information blocking is a multi-faceted problem that has proved resistant to over a decade of regulatory and market-based intervention. As Dr. Rucker said on June 19, “Health care providers and technology developers may have powerful economic incentives not to share electronic health information and to slow progress towards greater data liquidity.” Because it involves technology standards controlled by industry incumbents, solving this problem cannot be done by regulation alone. It will require the coordinated application of the “power of the purse” held by CMS, VA, and NIH.

PPR believes that the 21st Century Cures Act and HIPAA provide sufficient authority to solve interoperability on a meaningful scale as long as we avoid framing the problem in ways that have already been shown to fail such as “patient matching” and “trust federations”. These wicked problems are an institutional framing of the interoperability issue. The new, patient-centered framing is now being championed by CMS Administrator Verma and ONC Coordinator Rucker is a welcome path forward and a foundation to build upon.

To help understand the detailed comments below, consider the Application Programming Interface (API) policy and technology options according to two dimensions:

API Content and Security Institution is Accountable Patient is Accountable
API Security and Privacy
  • Broad, prior consent
  • Patient matching
  • Institutional federation
  • Provider-directed interop
  • Compliance mindset
  • Directed authorization
  • Known to the practice
  • Individual credentials
  • Patient-directed interop
  • Privacy mindset
API Content / Data Model
  • Designated record set
  • FHIR
  • Patient-restricted data
  • De-identified data
  • Bulk (multi-patient) data
  • Designated record set
  • FHIR
  • Sensitive data
  • Social determinants
  • Wearables and monitors

This table highlights the features and benefits of interoperability based on institutional or individual accountability. This is not an either-or choice. The main point of our comments is that a patient-centered vision by HHS must put patient accountability on an equal footing with institutional accountability and ensure that Open APIs are accessible to patient-directed interoperability “without special effort” first, even as we continue to struggle with wicked problems of national-scale patient matching and national-scale trust federations.

Here are our detailed comments inline with the CMS questions in bold:Continue reading…

India’s Health Insurance Experiment. Who will be the winners?

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By SAURABH JHA

Though the exact cost of Modicare, the government’s extension of health insurance for poor people, estimated at one lakh crore (a trillion U.S. dollars), is open for debate, what is not disputable is that the cost of insuring India’s poor won’t fall with time. A sure way of accelerating healthcare inflation, that is speeding the rate of increase of healthcare costs, is by subsidizing or paying for health insurance. Insurance is like Newton’s Second Law of Motion – the velocity keeps increasing as long as the force is applied.

Healthcare is a peculiar industry. Cars get cheaper but medical care doesn’t. The Maruti eventually became cheaper than the Ambassador, and more aesthetically pleasing than its Neanderthalic predecessor. Medical care doesn’t get cheaper because a life saved from cancer is a life waiting to be killed by another disease, which needs treating, too. Survivors of cancer get heart attacks and survivors of heart attacks get cancer, and survivors of both get dementia.

It’s like a restaurant where you can’t just pay for lunch – if you pay for lunch you have to pay for breakfast and dinner and may be a few samosas in between the meals. But unlike eating, consumption of medical care is not guarded by satiety. The insatiable medical sciences keep delivering even more expensive ways death can marginally be deferred. For example, the once dreaded stroke which leads to paralysis is now treatable. However, the treatment is not cheap and comprises clot busters, dangerous drugs with fatal side effects. Further, to treat stroke you need rapid diagnosis by modern imaging – that is you need CAT scans and radiologists. If penicillin for pneumonia is like eating at a roadside dhaba, treatment for acute stroke is fine dining at the Taj.

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Health in 2 Point 00, Episode 34

I’m back. After the takeover editions, I’m answering Jessica DaMassa about Atul Gawande as the CEO of the ABC new venture, the demise of Caresync, Ooda Health and its demand for a female VC, and whole bunch more blather! — Matthew Holt

Adjusting for Risk Adjustment

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By JONATHAN HALVORSON

Risk adjustment in health insurance is at first glance, and second, among the driest and most arcane of subjects. And yet, like the fine print on a variable-rate mortgage, it can matter enormously. It may make the difference between a healthy market and a sick one.

The market for individual health insurance has had major challenges both before and after the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) risk adjustment program came along. Given recent changes from Washington, like the removal of the individual mandate, the market now needs all the help it can get. Unfortunately, risk adjustment under the ACA has been an example of a well-meaning regulation that has had destructive impacts directly contrary to its intent. It has caused insurer collapses and market exits that reduced competition. It has also led to upstarts, small plans and unprofitable ones paying billions of dollars to larger, more established and profitable insurers.

Many of these transfers since the ACA rules took effect in 2014 have gone from locally-based non-profit health plans to multi-state for-profit organizations. The payments have hampered competition not just in the individual market, which has never worked very well in the U.S., but in the small group market, which arguably didn’t need “help” from risk adjustment in many states.

The sense of urgency to fix these problems may be dissipating now that the initial rush for market share under the ACA is over and plans have enough actuarial data to predict costs better. There has been an overall shift to profitability. But it would be a serious mistake to think that just because fewer plans are under water, the current approach to risk adjustment isn’t distorting markets and harming competition.

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Defining Engagement in an Age of Patient Monitoring and Data Collection

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SPONSORED POST

By GRACE MOEN

If you have an innovative solution that addresses Patient Engagement and Remote Monitoring, Bayer’s Dealmaker Challenge wants to hear from you! Apply here for a shot at collaborating with the Bayer G4A Digital Health Team and participating in Dealmaker Day, an exclusive matchmaking event, October 9th in Berlin.

What is healthcare without patients? For decades physicians have been a one-stop shop for diagnosis and treatment, a trusted source. And yet it’s only been in recent years that the entire healthcare industry has woken up to the notion that patients can and should have an active role in their healthcare and the decision making process. Patients may not have a medical education or clinical experience, but they do have a strong asset going for them: intimate knowledge of their bodies and access to information only they can provide. The rise of wearable technologies over the past decade has only increased patients ability to quantify their experiences, health and otherwise. Diet, exercise, daily habits, stress levels, family life, physical environment all contribute to an overall picture of health. Yet too often, clinicians only see a slice of their patients health picture – the picture that is presented during office visits. The increased importance of tracking lifestyle data has clinicians and technologists asking themselves, How do we unlock more information in order to make better decisions and deliver better care?

The field is called Patient Engagement. And while the industry has mutually agreed upon it’s critical importance, the question remains as to what it looks like.Continue reading…

Can Medicaid Expansion Survive?

By STEVEN FINDLAY

Amid fresh political rancor and legal machinations in the ongoing war over the Affordable Care Act (ACA), there’s a bright spot: Medicaid. At least for now.

This matters. True to predictions made by Obama and supporters when the ACA became law (2010), it has taken years and a lot of blood, sweat and tears to get to this moment.

As a reminder, the U.S. Supreme Court in 2012 ruled that states could opt out of the ACA’s Medicaid expansion—leaving each state’s decision to participate in the hands of governors and state lawmakers.

On June 7, after a 4-year pitched political battle, Virginia became the 33rd state (plus DC) to expand Medicaid under the ACA. The Virginia expansion is projected to encompass 400,000 low-income Virginians.

The state swung in favor of expansion after Democrats gained the governorship and more seats in the legislature in 2016. But, importantly, key moderate Republicans relented.

Four other non-expansion states could join Virginia over the next year or two. They are Maine, Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska.Continue reading…

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