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POLICY/INDUSTRY: Costs — The rate of increase decreases, but not enough to spoil everyone’s party, with UPDATE

There’s a confusing little piece in the WSJ about how health spending continues to rise at (a) worrying pace. It’s based on a HSC report and an EBRI report about the first half of this year, which suggest that last year’s trends are continuing. Incidentally neither of those reports seem to appear on those organizations’ websites for us mere mortals. The report is now up on HSC’s site,(although perhaps the SEC should be investigating how the WSJ got it early?) However, last year’s trends were a slowing to a mere 7.5% increase, which is only a little over double GDP growth. Anyway this is pretty much in line with CMS’ projection of a 7.8% rise in costs for 2003. A more nuanced observer might notice that it’s during recessions when we have double digit health care cost growth (e.g. 1990-2 and 2001-2) that the healthcare as a share of GDP number really takes off. The rest of the time it just continues a slow snake-like growth upwards. But this isn’t stopping the WSJ from panicking:

The finding suggests that health costs may continue to increase at unmanageable levels for employers and consumers. That outlook is distressing, because until recently the rise in health-care costs had appeared to be decelerating. The flattening of health-cost increases suggests health-insurance premiums will continue to rise at a similar pace.

But of course if you look in the other part of the WSJ you might notice that yesterday was a pretty good day for one part of the health sector–the insurers. Part of that was more irrational exuberance about the finalization of the Wellpoint/Anthem deal. But part of that increase was a big bump in the numbers and forecasts for Humana and Cigna and even bigger jumps in their stock prices. (Incidentally, can anyone else remember a merger going from final government approval one day to immediate ticker symbol transfer and final merger the next? I can’t but that’s what happened and Wednesday WLP stopped trading and handed its symbol over to ATH, which–now called WLP–went up another 7%!).

So if you were concerned about where all those extra premiums are going, don’t be. The health plans are looking after them very well indeed!

UPDATE: And if you needed proof of the frugality of health plans, Bill McGuire, CEO of United, is cashing in $114m in stock options, barely more than the $94m in total comp he had to scrape by on last year. Do you ever wonder if the tough captains of American industry ever stop to think that the more they are asked to pay for health care, the richer the health plans seem to get? Is that how generously they treat the rest of their suppliers?

POLITICS: Has Prop 72 won?

And if you weren’t convinced by the exit poll debacle, the terrorist lockdown in Ohio, the trashing of the optical scan tapes in Florida, and all the other bullshit that’s gone on in the electoral process (not to mention the "spoiled ballots" and felons list of 2000), then get this.

Apparently with all the late votes tallied Proposition 72 actually won in California. Or did it. Maybe it was a clerical error? Who the hell knows, but given that the excess votes came from heavily Democratic LA County and Contra Costa County, there may have been enough to move it over the line.

In any event, THCB is now officially on record as stating that voting and running elections needs to be taken away from the states and counties and given to a non-partisan, non-corruptible government agency that is focused purely on its mission. Perhaps the Hong Kong police force could do the job if the Dalai Lama or the Norwegian foreign ministry is unavailable.

HEALTH PLANS: Georgia names its price and Wellpoint/Anthem merger is done

After a little bit of modest extortion, the Georgia insurance commissioner came into line for a mere $126m, mostly to be spent on upgrading hospitals and a little for telemedicine. So hey presto, WellPoint is now the nation’s new largest health insurer. Actually it’s Anthem that really took over Wellpoint, but they decided to keep the Wellpoint name.  Georgia actually did alright, as once Garamendi set the price in California at $250m, it was clear to everyone that a deal could be done, and Georgia seems to be the only one that got to renegotiate up!

Notably that a deal could be beneficial was clear to Wellpoint management and stockholders, who have seen the share price go up 30% since Garamendi gave his approval, and seen it rise from $85 to $125 in the little over a year since the deal was announced. (Perhaps the insurance commissioners had gone long before the deal!) In effect though the new company is really just an amalgamation of all the Blues that have been bought by the two companies over the last decade. It’s hard to see how beyond shedding some overhead in southern California (and it will be expensive overhead to shed given the buy-out clauses in place) there are actually any real economies of scale to be gained by putting all these Blues together. Add to that the fact that the underwriting cycle will get tougher from here on out, I wouldn’t be a buyer at these levels.  On the other hand I’ve been saying that for a year now and if I’d been short, well as the British traders say, I’d be having my arse handed to me on a plate.

By the way, if you spellcheck "Wellpoint" using Blogger’s spellchecker it comes back as "elephant"!

TECHNOLOGY: Dan Weintraub on the HIT world

If you want a slightly more thoughtful commentary than I provided live blogging the HIT conference, whip over to this column by Dan Weintraub on Technology and Health. Although he doesn’t come out and say it directly, Dan notes that the dis-integration of the system is the major barrier to inter-operability. And of course the VA and Kaiser are the models that he cites as doing the best work here — which means that no real Americans are going to enjoy the benefits (OK, OK, that doesn’t mean that veterans and KP members aren’t real Americans but in terms of the health care system they are weird exceptions!).

QUALITY: Millenson on Pay For Perfomance

Michael Millenson week continues here at THCB!

Despite giving my team at IFTF almost no credit for inventing the phrase (oh, I can be as petty as any academic!) Michael has written a pretty good article called Pay for Performance: The best worst choice. Millenson notes that some adherents of antecedents of P4P existed long ago in the medical system before the AMA had them taken out, put up against the wall and shot (or the professional equivalent). Given that Millenson quotes the AMA Chair as saying that P4P is a "scam designed by multi-millionaire Health Plan CEOs to take advantage of gullible physicians", it seems that some things have changed little. And why would you want your performance be reflected in your pay, especially as your performance is apparently as bad (or at least as inconsistent) as much of the care delivered in this country, even by the most prestigious institutions. (See 30 years worth of Wennberg et al if you don’t believe me). For that matter, given the ability of the plans and the rest of the suppliers to game the system in the past, I would be worried as a doctor is I was going to essentially give a with-hold away that I might not see back. But for the rest of us, as Millenson says, given the choice that we have now, P4P is the best one out there.

BTW the article is published in a somewhat obscure British journal called Quality and Safety in Health Care. It’s subscription only, but you dear reader can get to this article by special arrangement only from this page. Ooh, the power of THCB!

HEALTH PLANS: United swallows Definity

Possibly also to be headlined, Dotcom survives and makes good! For a mere $300m UnitedHealth Group has bought CDHP player Definity Health which gives United a platform into the self-directed consumer plan world. Hard to tell exactly how much cash Definity has gone through, although they raised some $45m by the end of 2001 and their web site says that they’ve had $70m invested. So it’s not a terrible return if that’s all that went in. Apparently they have some $100m a year in revenues, although whether that is just ASO fees or includes premium revenue is unclear (I’d hazard a guess at the former).

Either way United is not just buying revenue, they must believe that they’re getting a platform which would take too long for them to build themselves. Definity for its part has obviously decided that waiting for more organic growth in the big group HSA/CDHP market is going to take too long for them to go the IPO route and a bird in the hand…

But this is at least one vote for the self-directed plan having a future. And if it’s a total bust…..well at a mere $300m it’s not Aetna-US Healthcare all over again.

QUALITY: Five years on from To Err Is Human

Nov 29, 1999 saw the release of possibly the most famous report in health care since the Flexner report excoriated the medical school system in the early 1900s. The report was called To Err is Human and it was created by an expert panel working under the auspices of the non-partisan Institute of Medicine. Based largely on the work done some 10 years earlier by the Harvard group looking at malpractice, To Err is Human made the leap into the public consciousness despite being an obscure report about the medical system, rather than a sexy report about new medical discoveries. Here is the IOM’s original press release.

At least two major news events in previous years had helped in the build-up–the death by wrong chemotherapy dose of the Boston Globe’s health columnist, Betsy Lehman, in the most prestigious cancer center in the most medically prestigious city in America, and the amputation of the wrong limb from a patient in a hospital in Florida. While this type of thing had been going on forever, patient safety suddenly became a screaming big deal, and it remains so today. However, it remains a big deal in the sense that medical errors are still routinely going on — in fact THCB reported just a few months back of an identical death by wrong dose of chemotherapy to that which killed Betsy Lehman. And just last week a Seattle medical center publicly apologized for a mix-up in which a patient died as a result of being injected with a toxin rather than a harmless dye.

The patient safety movement is also hamstrung by an unwillingness of both Congress and medical leaders to get really serious about the problem. Earlier this month in a survey by Bob Blendon at Harvard, in conjunction with Carolyn Clancy at AHRQ and the Kaiser Family Foundation, the public showed that they do not trust the medical system’s safety. Here’s the survey and the three authors also acknowledged the fact in the NEJM.

Throughout this entire time, or at least since the publication of his wonderful book Demanding Medical Excellence, Michael Millenson has been the leading lay critic of the medical establishment on its poor response to the patient safety issue, even following the IOM report. I asked Michael for his reaction on the five year anniversary. Here are his thoughts:

It’s official: the sage leaders of the health care industry have gathered for the five-year anniversary of the IOM To Err is Human report and concluded that not enough has been done to actually reduce the patient death toll since the report appeared.

It is, unfortunately, not a surprise that the equivalent of three jumbo jets crashing every two days continues to occur — although, in fairness, enough progress has been made that we may assume that the load factor on those jets has dropped somewhat. The death toll taken by tired residents gained national attention with the death of Libby Zion in the mid-1980s. Two decades later, strong rules limiting resident work hours have finally taken effect nationally. Wrong site surgery was the subject of sustained national headlines in 1995. JCAHO rules mandating the tremendously complicated solution — use a pen to mark the site — went into effect in 2004.

The fact is that 747s are not crashing in hospital parking lots; the preventable death toll remains largely invisible. Hard working, well-meaning physicians and nurses are all trying hard to do their best for patients, and their failures generally occur among people who were very sick to begin with. As the horror stories fade, Congress can barely summon the energy to mandate voluntary error reporting.

In two years we’ll have the five-year anniversary of the IOM’s Crossing the Quality Chasm. One can safely, as it were, predict that we will then be talking about the sad lack of progress in making evidence-based medicine an integral part of routine care.

One other thought. Health policy wonks had known about this for years. Why was this report become such a big deal in the first place? Millenson explains:

The IOM was lucky. The release came in a slow news time (post-Thanksgiving), when there was nothing new on various Clinton scandals and Boris Yeltsin, as I recall, was on the death watch but hadn’t died of alcohol poisoning or whatever. So: slow news day, catchy topic with soundbites, and real human interest examples (courtesy of newspaper stories) that allowed the TV folks to put real people on film — and you’ve got a big deal story. As opposed to the generalizations of most "reports," including Chasm.

Now, not pure luck. They were trying to make a splash. But timing was lucky. And they weren’t smart enough to realize the true elements in their success, ’cause they thought Chasm would be even bigger play because the topic was bigger. Sure, and putting out a report on problems with America’s plumbing systems will be a sure-fire media success, too.

Of course most people don’t know where the quote in the title of the IOM report comes from, but then again most people weren’t tortured through English literature class at their English boarding school the way I was. And the full phrase that Alexander Pope wrote?

Good nature and good sense must ever join;
To err is human, to forgive divine.

I think it’s fair to say that although we do have the "good sense" needed to make medicine safer, we don’t have the "good nature" required to put that sense into operation. So we don’t yet deserve any divine forgiveness.

TECHNOLOGY: The UK’s EMR project is not apples to apples, with UPDATE

As we go into this most uniquely American holiday, here’s a story or two about the place the pilgrims were thankful to get away from. Of course my British friends tell me that Thanksgiving is really on July 4th for them.

First up is CapGemini’s John Quinn (a Brit) writing about why the national health infrastructure initiatives in the UK and the USA are very different. He correctly points out that the UK is some 3-4 years ahead in its process, and that it is basing its infrastructure on a largely government run health system. He also points out that the financial commitment from the government there is huge — adjusted for population it’s the equivalent of $140bn over 10 years here. Adjusted for proportion of GDP spent on health care per head, the UK’s number is closer to the equivalent of $400bn over 10 years. Here, despite all the rhetoric the funding for Brailer’s office was just cut in yesterday’s spending bill, and he’ll be living on handouts for the next little while. Of course private sector players here are spending real money, and even $40bn a year is less than 3% of total health spending. So it’s almost certain that we’ll spend more than that number on IT here.

But it’s what Quinn doesn’t point out that may be even more crucial, as it relates to what we’ll be spending that money on. In his talk last week Brailer noted that the US has two challenges. First getting physicians to use the EMR, and then getting all those EMR’s to talk to each other. The Brits are focusing on the second part of that, the inter-operability piece. By the late 1990s they’d basically already done the EMR piece, albeit in a rudimentary way and mostly outpatient only. The average GP practice in any small British town vastly out-does the EMR-use anywhere in the US, apart from a few notable exceptions. So the Brits are starting from a position of strength in EMR uptake (at some 80% penetration), while the US needs to catch up. And of course the inter-operabilty piece is an imposing (or impossible) challenge here, where there are no incentives for the competitors in a marketplace to cooperate, and no government mandate telling them to, even (as Kaiser’s Robert Pearl pointed out) if it would be good for the health of the community and nation.

Meanwhile I’m sure my British surgeon father wishes this had happened to him; the BBC reports that a hospital in Winchester, Hampshire (which is incidentally where I went to high school) overpaid its doctors by 290,000 GBP and wants its money back

UPDATE: Matt Quinn notes that interoperability could be done, and that there is a private sector model for it–well sort of:

While it’s a vast oversimplification from the cultural adoption standpoint, the technology to implement and interconnect clinical systems across the nation is not too different from the technology that connects all of Wal-Mart’s point of sale and logistics management systems across the country such that anyone in a Wal-Mart store has nearly real time access to critical alerts and supply information and the HQ in Bentonville can monitor and research the whole network.

Of course, a key difference is that Wal-Mart centrally funded such a system and it appears that the federal government will not.  It’s not as if — given the choice — each Wal-Mart store would have funded, implemented and connected it’s own system without central funding.

Oh yeah, and Wal-Mart employees cooperate a lot more than physicians do (i.e. can’t refuse to use the system).

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