Tag: venture capital

VC returns: Well, it’s stock trading…

Feb 10, 2025

By MATTHEW HOLT

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about whether digital health is a legitimate place for venture capital. There have been lots of huge failures, very few notable successes (and certainly no “biggest companies in the world” yet), while some real giants (Walmart/Walgreens/Amazon) have come in and then got out of health care.

I don’t have to tell you again that most of the publicly traded digital health companies are trading at pennies on the dollar to their initial valuations. But I will. Look at that chart below.

Heck even Doximity– which prints money (45% net margins!)–is trading at well under its post IPO high. My quick overview is that there are not very many publicly traded companies at unicorn status. With really only Doximity, HIMS and Oscar being very successful. (We can have a separate argument as to whether Tempus and Waystar are “digital health”). And there are many, many that are well off the price they IPOed at. All that at a time when the regular stock market is hitting record highs.

Which makes it interesting to say the least that Define Ventures just came out with a report saying that in general digital health has done well as a venture investment and that it was likely to do even better, soon.

The report isn’t that long and is well worth a read but their basic argument compares digital health venture investments to those in fintech and consumer tech. Essentially it took digital health a lot longer to get to 10% of total venture investment than fintech or consumer tech, but it got there after 2020. Now more than 10% of all VC backed unicorns out there are health tech companies. Yes there was a retrenchment in 2022-3 but health tech investment fell less than other sectors in 2022-3 and is basically back in 2024.

The Define forecast forecast is interesting (it’s the chart below). Define posits that it took 4-5 years after the fintech and consumer tech sectors became 10% of VC dollars for them to start pumping out exits and IPOs. There are 30-50 each in those sectors now, but health tech was ahead of that with 18 exits already in the first 5 years after getting to 10% of VC dollars, and those exits were on average double the size of the fintech/consumer tech exits. (Although to be fair the health tech exits were when the market was higher after 2020)

In fact their analysis is that capital returned was about 10x investment. You might say, but hey Matthew didn’t you just show me a chart that most of those 18 companies were public market dogs? And you’d be right.

The Optimism of Digital Health

Feb 9, 2024

By JONATHON FEIT

Journalists like being salty. Like many venture investors, we who are no longer “green” have finely tuned BS meters that like to rip off the sheen of a press release to reach the truthiness underneath. We ask, is this thing real? If I write about XYZ, will I be embarrassed next year to learn that it was the next Theranos?

Yet journalists must also be optimistic—a delicate balance: not so jaded that one becomes boooring, not so optimistic that one gets giddy at each flash of potential; and still enamored of the belief that every so often, something great will remake the present paradigm.

This delicately balanced worldview is equally endemic to entrepreneurs that stick around: Intel founder Andy Grove’s famously said “only the paranoid survive,” a view that is inherently nefarious since it points out that failure is always lurking nearby. Nevertheless, to venture is to look past the risk, as in, “Someone has to reach that tall summit someday—it may as well be our team!” Pragmatic entrepreneurs seek to do something else, too: deliver value for one’s clients / customers / partners / users in excess of what they pay—which makes they willing to pay in excess of what the thing or service costs to produce. We call that metric “profit,” and over the past several years, too many young companies, far afield of technology and healthcare, forgot about it.

Once upon a time, not too many years ago, during the very first year that my company (Beyond Lucid Technologies) turned a profit, I presented to a room of investors in San Francisco, and received a stunning reply when told that people were willing to pay us for our work. “But don’t you want to grow?” the investor asked.

Matthew’s health care tidbits: Digital Health is dead (well, not quite)

May 23, 2022• 2

Each week I’ve been adding a brief tidbits section to the THCB Reader, our weekly newsletter that summarizes the best of THCB that week (Sign up here!). Then I had the brainwave to add them to the blog. They’re short and usually not too sweet! –Matthew Holt

For today’s health care tidbits, the elephant in the room has truely come home to roost, and now it’s landed on the phone wire, it’s close to breaking it. OK, I have stretched that metaphor to death but you’ll get my point. Writing on THCB earlier this month Jeff Goldsmith and Eric Larsen picked up on something I’ve been saying for a while –the fall in valuation of publicly traded digital health companies will have a knock effect on private companies.

It took a while–those public companies stock prices started falling from their heights 14 months ago–but in the last month the venture capital scene has gone quiet. The days of sub $20m ARR companies getting mutli-hundred million dollar valuations are over for now. They will be back at some point in the future, as that’s how Silicon Valley has always worked, but it’ll be a while and in the meantime everyone is going to have to figure out what to do in the new world.

The “What to do?” question is getting harder as the data starts to come in, and it’s getting ugly. On the one hand the two fastest growing digital health companies ever have both had their comeuppance. Livongo was a tremendous exit for its investors and ended up trading at 20 times future revenue before it got acquired by Teladoc for $18bn mostly in stock. This quarter Teladoc wrote off much of its investment in Livongo and the whole company is now only worth $5bn. Clearly those “synergies” between telehealth and chronic care management didn’t work. The other rocket ship was Cerebral, which went from nothing in Jan 2020 to by Jan 2022 having over 100,000 patients and thousands of providers on its system as it raised over $300m from Softbank et al. Its aggressive & expensive customer acquisition costs, with its controversial controlled medication prescribing patterns, brought it way too much controversy. Its young CEO is gone, and it’ll be a slow climb back with bankruptcy and collapse the likeliest of outcomes.

But the part of digital health that’s trying to replace the incumbents is not the only place showing ugliness. The technologies and services being rolled out are often not working. Exhibit A is a randomized controlled trial conducted a Univ of Pennsylvania. One set of heart patients was set up with connected blood pressure cuffs, a pillbox that tracked their Rx adherence and lots of coaching help. The others were sent home with the proverbial leaflet and told to call if they had problems. You’d assume many more deaths and hospital readmissions in the second group. You’d be wrong. There were no differences.

So digital health needs to see if it can produce services companies that move the needle on costs and outcomes. The advantage is that they are eventually competing with hospital systems whose DNA doesn’t allow them the ability to let them cross the chasm to the new world. The bad news is that those systems have huge reserves which they can use to subsidize their old world activities.

I’m hoping digital health’s impact in the next 2 years will be as big as it was in the past 2, It’s by no means dead or over, but I am pessimistic.

CEO Kuldeep Singh Rajput on Biofourmis’ huge Series D raise

Apr 26, 2022

You may have thought the days of huge digital health rounds were over. Not quite yet! CEO Kuldeep Singh Rajput talks with Matthew Holt about Biofourmis’ $300m Series D raise. They’re in the business of sensors, digital therapeutics and chronic specialty care (cardiology/oncology) and hospital at home. And as if that wasn’t enough, they have a solid plan for both organic & “inorganic” growth!

Policies|Techies|VCs: What’s Next For Health Care–Virtual Conference is Sept 7-10

Aug 30, 2021

Policies|Techies|VCs: What’s Next For Health Care? is the conference bringing together the CEOs of the next generation of virtual & real-life care delivery, and all the permutations thereof. You can register here or learn how to sponsor.

This is a big week. We are one week out and we’ve started pre-recording a few sessions and they’ve been fascinating. Keynotes include government officials from the 3 most important agencies for digital health –Pauline Lapin (CMS), Micky Tripathi (ONC) & Bakul Patel (FDA). But wait there’s more! Keynotes from techies Glen Tullman (Transcarent), Sean Lane (Olive), Jonathan Bush (Zus Health), Jeff Dachis (One Drop) & Andrew Dudum (Hims & Hers). And we’re not forgetting the VCs sprinkled through the program, with a keynote from Andreesen Horowitz’s Julie Yoo.

Please look at the agenda for 20 power-packed panels and over 100 speakers – and then sign up!

Shout out to our sponsors – This week we welcome new Gold sponsor data privacy company Skyflow and new Silver sponsor Amwell. Thanks to both of them for supporting the conference. They join Avaneer Health (our Platinum sponsor) & exclusive Agency sponsor 120/80. Sliver sponsors are Transcarent & Lark . More sponsors are Aetion. Merck GHIF, Crossover Health, Zus Health, Newtopia, Aetion & Big Health! Many of them will have sessions you can catch on the web site.

It’s going to be a great conference–no need to leave your seat as it’s happening virtually September 7-10. Register here!! — Matthew Holt

THCB Spotlights: Marta Zanchi, Founder & Managing Partner at Nina Capital

Jul 30, 2021

Today on THCB Spotlight, Matthew sits down with Marta Zanchi, who is the founder and Managing Partner at Nina Capital. Nina Capital is a micro venture capital firm in Barcelona, and in this interview, Matthew asks Marta about her decision to move from Silicon Valley to Barcelona and start this fund. Marta talks us through some of the investments they’ve made in the past couple of years so tune in to find out more.

The Catalyst @ Health 2.0/Wipfli State of Digital Health Survey

May 12, 2021

By MATTHEW HOLT & ELIZABETH BROWN

Last year was a remarkable time for digital health. Obviously it was pretty unusual and tragic for the world in general as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to wreak havoc. We mourn those lost, and we praise our front line health workers and scientists. But for digital health companies, in almost no time 2020 changed from fear of a market collapse to what became a massive funding boom.

But no-one has reported from the ground what this means for digital health companies, of which there are perhaps 10-15,000 worldwide with maybe 6-8,000 based in the United States. Despite the headlines, most are not pulling down $200m funding rounds or SPACing out. So working with professional services firm Wipfli, we at Catalyst @ Health 2.0 decided to find out what digital health companies experienced in this most extraordinary year.

Between Thanksgiving 2020 and mid-March 2021, we surveyed more than 300 members of the digital health ecosystem, focusing on leaders from more than 180 private (and a few public) digital health companies. We asked them about their market, their experience during COVID-19, and what they thought of the environment. We also asked them about the mechanics of running their businesses. The results are pretty interesting.

The Key Message: COVID-19 was very good for digital health companies–on average. Most are very optimistic but, despite the massive increase in funding since the brief (but real) post-lockdown crash, most digital health companies remain small and struggling for funding, revenue, and customers.

We also heard from investors, and a bigger group we called “users” (mostly payers, providers, pharma, non-healthcare tech companies, e-patients & consultants). While these “users” also saw a big trend towards the use of (and, to a lesser extent, paying for) digital health tools and services, they were not as gung-ho as were digital health companies or investors, who were even more optimistic.

The summary deck containing the key findings is below and there is more analysis and commentary below the jump.

The Catalyst @ Health 2.0/Wipfli Survey on the State of Digital Health Results Presentation from health2dev

Health Tech Investor Outlook for 2020 | Bryan Roberts, Venrock

Feb 27, 2020

By JESSICA DaMASSA, WTF HEALTH

Bryan Roberts of Venrock, one of healthcare’s leading venture capital firms, weighs in with his view on the health tech market ‘state-of-play’ as we roar into 2020. With a track record that includes athenahealth, Illumina, Grand Rounds, Castlight, and Lyra Health, Bryan’s not a bad investor to ask when it comes to identifying the “next big thing” in healthcare innovation.

Filmed at J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, January 2020

Those Digital Health IPOs—Flipping the Stack & Filling the Gap

Jul 23, 2019• 7

By MATTHEW HOLT

I’ve been driven steadily nuts by a series of recent articles that are sort of describing what’s happening in health tech or (because the term won’t die) digital health, so I thought it was time for the definitive explanation. Yeah, yeah, humility ain’t my strong suit.

It won’t have escaped your attention that, after five years during which Castlight Health more or less single-handedly killed the IPO market for new health tech companies, suddenly in the middle of July 2019 we have three digital health companies going public. While Livongo, (FD-a THCB sponsor) Phreesia and Health Catalyst are all a little bit different, I’m going to use them to explain what the last decade of health tech evolution has meant.

Don’t get carried away by the precise details of the IPOs. Phressia is already out with a market cap of $845m. Yes, it’s true that none of the three are profitable yet, but they are all showing decent revenue growth at an annual run rate of $100m+ and Livongo in particular has been on a client acquisition and annual triple digit revenue growth tear. It’s also the newest of these companies, founded only in 2014, albeit by buying another company (EosHealth) founded in 2008 that had some of the tech they launched with. Going public doesn’t really mean that the health care market will swoon for them, nor that they are guaranteed to change the world. After all, as I pointed out in my recent somewhat (ok, very) cynical 12 rules for health tech startups, UnitedHealth Group has $250 Billion in revenue and doesn’t seem to be able to change the system. And anyone who remembers the eHealth bust of 2000-2002 knows that just because you get to the IPO, it’s no guarantee of success or even survival.

But just by virtue of making it this far and being around the 1/10^th of 1% of health tech startups to make it to IPO, we can call all three a success. But what do they do?

They are all using new technologies to tackle longstanding health care problems.

The Biggest Trend You’ve Probably Never Heard Of: A Status Report on 138 Healthcare ICOs

Sep 24, 2018• 5

By ROBERT MILLER & VINCE KURAITIS

You’ve probably heard of Bitcoin, but we doubt you’ve heard of Dentacoin, MedTokens, or Curecoin.

These are healthcare specific cryptocurrencies born from Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs. In this article, we’ll briefly recap the trend of ICOs (aka token offerings) and provide you with a summary financial analysis of how this trend has played out among 138 healthcare ICOs. The results to-date are enlightening, but disappointing. We believe there’s still potential for some projects to be successful.

Background

What’s an ICO? Here’s a quick take from Wikipedia and we’ll point you to an Appendix that will guide you to additional resources:

An ICO is a type of funding using cryptocurrencies…In an ICO, a quantity of cryptocurrency is sold in the form of “tokens” (“coins”) to speculators or investors, in exchange for legal tender or other cryptocurrencies. The tokens sold are promoted as future functional units of currency if or when the ICO’s funding goal is met and the project launches.

Autonomous Research found that ICOs raised over $7 billion in 2017 and are slated to raise $12 billion in 2018, with some mega projects raising billions of dollars each.