Tag: predictions

My Totally Wrong, Expert Predictions for Health Care 2025

Jan 5, 2025

By MICHAEL MILLENSON

January

In a blistering commentary, the American Medical Association’s flagship journal, JAMA, condemns the corrosive effect on patient care of the profit-seeking practices of health insurers. Separately, the organization announces that it’s selling the 13 journals in its JAMA Network to a private equity firm for $375 million “in order to enhance our mission of promoting the betterment of public health.”

February

Quickly following up on a campaign pledge to slash the federal budget, the Trump administration announces a radical consolidation of various entities at the Department of Health and Human Services. The new organization will be known as the Agency and Bureau for Children, Drugs, Explosives, Firearms, Families and Food (ABCDEFFF). Reflecting the new president’s strong personal preferences, “alcohol” will no longer be permitted in any agency name.

March

Bipartisan legislation demanding transparency from Pharmacy Benefit Managers dies in committee after industry executives explain that secret rebates to PBMs are like secret political action committee contributions to politicians: they allow you to loudly proclaim you’re an “advocate” for those supposedly paying you while actually serving the interests of those who are really paying you.

April

Pfizer announces that its once-a-day pill version of the wildly successful GLP-1 agonist weight loss drugs will shortly be submitted for government approval, and also that the company is moving its headquarters from New York to Louisiana, a state with a 40 percent obesity rate. Coincidentally, Louisiana is also the home state of Republican senators Cassidy and Kennedy, senior members of the Senate committees overseeing health care and all federal appropriations.

May

The new private equity owners of the JAMA Network say that all staff except one editor at each journal will be replaced by ChatGPT. A source at the private equity firm tells the Wall Street Journal that OpenAI won out over Gemini “because our CEO is a Leo” and over Claude “because nobody likes the French.”

June

Controversial right-wing firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, long the subject of rumors that she’s had cosmetic surgery, is diagnosed with a serious infection after an unspecified procedure. The House quickly schedules its first hearing on medical error in over two decades, but then cancels when the American Hospital Association points out the official term for what the Georgia Republican contracted was a “healthcare-associated infection,” so it’s entirely possible she accidentally brought the infection with her to the pristine hospital. Meanwhile, with House leadership telling Members they were free to vote their conscience, a resolution to send Greene a “Get Well” card passes unanimously after deletion of the word, “Soon.”

July

Following through on years of promises to reveal a “really great” replacement for the Affordable Care Act, President Trump on July 4 announces the “100-100-100” Make America Healthy Again plan. In keeping with the GOP’s advocacy for “skinny” plans with low premiums that encourage “consumers” to “comparison shop,” the plan will cover 100 percent of any medical bill for up to $100 a day for a premium of just $100 a month. Separately, Elon Musk tells a meeting of health insurance executives the plan can also replace both Medicare and Medicaid, enabling the federal government to cut spending by almost as much as the market capitalization of Tesla.

August

Before Congress recesses, a coalition of progressive organizations issues a press release declaring that all basic health services, whether provided by government agencies or the private sector, should be “available to the entire population according to its needs.” Shortly afterwards, the coalition is forced to make an embarrassing retraction after ChatGPT alerts the lone editor of JAMA that the coalition accidentally re-released a section of the report of the Committee on the Costs of Medical Care, formed in 1927.

September

The Business Roundtable says its members are committed to improving the quality of health care for all employees because “quality health care is good business.” An 85-year-old freelancer for The New York Times notes that this was the exact title of a September, 1997 policy paper by a Roundtable task force in which an executive for Sears, which at the time operated over 3,500 stores, declares, “We believe that quality health care is lower-cost health care.” Sears currently has about a dozen stores.

October

Medicare Advantage plans step up their advertising expenditures after public opinion polls show that nobody anymore believes the portrayal of happy and healthy seniors playing pickleball instead of writing tear-soaked letters pleading for approval of hip surgery. The trade associations for hospitals, drug and device companies and PBMs call on Congress to provide greater oversight of greedy insurers. The editor of JAMA resigns after ChatGPT writes an editorial extolling the merits of MA plans run by for-profit companies.

November

The National Rural Health Association says that in the spirit of the Thanksgiving holiday, its members will accept live turkeys in partial payment of the medical debts that now affect 99.99 percent of all Americans after passage of the administration’s “100-100-100” Make America Healthy Again plan. A KFF survey explains that the number is not 100 percent because Congress retained conventional health insurance for itself and top federal officials and because America’s billionaires had opted for self-pay.

December

A Washington Post editorial declares, “The bottom line is that if we want to contain spending, we will have to make critical choices about how care is delivered, to whom, and under what conditions.” Different chatbots differ on where that quote originally came from, but agree that if any humans believe the American public is ready to make critical choices, they’re hallucinating.

Michael L. Millenson is president of Health Quality Advisors & a regular THCB Contributor

The Rise and Rise of Quantitative Cassandras

Oct 7, 2019

By SAURABH JHA, MD

Despite an area under the ROC curve of 1, Cassandra’s prophesies were never believed. She neither hedged nor relied on retrospective data – her predictions, such as the Trojan war, were prospectively validated. In medicine, a new type of Cassandra has emerged – one who speaks in probabilistic tongue, forked unevenly between the probability of being right and the possibility of being wrong. One who, by conceding that she may be categorically wrong, is technically never wrong. We call these new Minervas “predictions.” The Owl of Minerva flies above its denominator.

Deep learning (DL) promises to transform the prediction industry from a stepping stone for academic promotion and tenure to something vaguely useful for clinicians at the patient’s bedside. Economists studying AI believe that AI is revolutionary, revolutionary like the steam engine and the internet, because it better predicts.

Recently published in Nature, a sophisticated DL algorithm was able to predict acute kidney injury (AKI), continuously, in hospitalized patients by extracting data from their electronic health records (EHRs). The algorithm interrogated nearly million EHRS of patients in Veteran Affairs hospitals. As intriguing as their methodology is, it’s less interesting than their results. For every correct prediction of AKI, there were two false positives. The false alarms would have made Cassandra blush, but they’re not bad for prognostic medicine. The DL- generated ROC curve stands head and shoulders above the diagonal representing randomness.

The researchers used a technique called “ablation analysis.” I have no idea how that works but it sounds clever. Let me make a humble prophesy of my own – if unleashed at the bedside the AKI-specific, DL-augmented Cassandra could unleash havoc of a scale one struggles to comprehend.

Leaving aside that the accuracy of algorithms trained retrospectively falls in the real world – as doctors know, there’s a difference between book knowledge and practical knowledge – the major problem is the effect availability of information has on decision making. Prediction is fundamentally information. Information changes us.

Will There Be a Sony For Healthcare in 2015?

Jan 16, 2015• 2

By INDUSTRY SKEPTIC

In 2015 I think there is a good chance we’ll see a major security incident along the lines of this month’s Sony hack. This event will be like 9/11, in the sense that there will be a before and an after, and life as we know it will change forever. This has been coming for a long time. We’ll finally see how vulnerable we are and there will be a public outcry, most likely leading to some kind of government action. Up until now, most incidents have been security breaches of the disgruntled employee and clueless user variety, which are a huge big deal as far as HIPAA lawyers and privacy advocates are concerned, but not a very real threat to anybody.

This will be the real thing, with potentially disastrous results. I don’t know if this will be an attack on Healthcare.gov by a politically-motivated hacker group. (I’m surprised it hasn’t happened already. ) Or an attack on a academic hospital system designed to acquire potentially valuable patient and research data. Or a hack of a health insurance company, intended to Wikileak financial and (possibly damaging) patient claims data. For an insurer with a poor track record, this could cause serious problems.

The Quantified Doctor

Aug 31, 2014• 12

By SAURABH JHA, MD

88.2 % of all statistics are made up on the spot
– Victor Reeves

There’s a growing movement in medicine in general and imaging in particular which wishes to attach a number to everything.

It no longer suffices to say: “you’re at moderate risk for pulmonary embolism (PE).”

We must quantify our qualification.

Either by an interval. “Your chances of PE are between 15 and 45 %.”

Or, preferably, a point estimate. “You have a 15 % chance of PE.”

If we can throw a decimal point, even better. “You have a 15.2 % chance of PE.”

The rationale is that numbers empower patients to make a more informed choice, optimizing patient-centered medicine and improving outcomes.

Sounds reasonable enough. Although I find it difficult to believe that patients will have this conversation with their physicians.

“Thank god doctor my risk of PE is 15.1 % not 15.2 %. Otherwise I’d be in real trouble.”

What’s the allure of precision? Let’s understand certain terms: risk and uncertainty; prediction and prophesy.

By certainty I mean one hundred percent certainty. Opposite of certainty is uncertainty. Frank Knight, the economist, divided uncertainty to Knightian risk and Knightian uncertainty (1).

What’s Knightian risk?

If you toss a double-headed coin you’re certain of heads. If you toss a coin with head on one and tail on the other side, chance of a head is 50 %, assuming it’s a fair coin toss. Although you don’t know for certain that the toss will yield head or tail, you do know for certain that the chance of a head is 50 %. This can be verified by multiple tosses.

Is Health Care about to Go the Way of the Dodo?

Jan 17, 2013• 8

By Lucien Engelen

As the new year started, all kinds of predictions come to our attention, mostly of things that will enter our lives.

How about things that will dissolve from our lives ?

Of all species that became extinct the Dodo has become sort of synonymous with extinction. To “go the way the Dodo”means something is headed to go out of existence. (picture and quote source The Smithsonian)

So this goes not only for species but also stuff we use or things we do.

You might want to have a look at the extinction timeline and find things you did, ‘some’ time ago, and don’t anymore.

But what about health care? What will vanish, will the doctor due to all of this new technology disappear, or the nurse? Will we no longer go to a hospital or to the doctors office? I don’t think so.

We still will be needing professionals with compassion and care. However shift is happening and some things will start getting obsolete. In the following I am in no way going to try to be exhaustive, so feel free to add in comments or thought on what you think will disrupt from our lives in terms of health(care).

assetto corsa mods