The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) recently released a study that showed that 42% of Americans are unaware that Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act) remains the “law of the land.” News like this seems to us, to act as a Rorschach test on how observers feel about the law. Considering 50% of Americans can’t identify New York on a map we tend not to read too much into these polls. However, according to the logic of extrapolation, since we know that the ACA remains law, we are in the elite 58% (it’s about time we made it into the elite of something).
In almost parallel to the KFF news, the New England Journal of Medicine published a follow-up study of the “Oregon experiment.” For those who haven’t been following closely, the study found that previously uninsured people who were enrolled in Medicaid did not see an improvement in clinical measures when compared to those who remained uninsured. The study did seem to show a reduction in the amount of financial distress for the insured however.
Another contentious study, another Rorschach test (example, example). The problem we see with the polarity of views is that both sides seem to be cranking up the extrapolation machine and use single studies/data points to draw broad conclusions to gin up opinions about ACA’s success or lack thereof. In light of the fact that for most practical matters ACA doesn’t really get going until 2014, use of the extrapolation noise generator approach smacks of a lack of analytical rigor in our view. We will know soon enough how the program is doing… exchanges start enrolling on 10/1.
As investors, we should state upfront that we tend to give more weight to financial returns than what the philosopher-kings might call the political context. So what caught our eye in the Oregon study was that Medicaid recipients had higher healthcare utilization rates (and associated costs) than the uninsured. The connection between gaining insured status and healthcare utilization should not come as a surprise since there is a very extensive literature elucidating this connection.
For some conservatives, it’s a shocking reversal. Leaders of Americans for Prosperity, the conservative organization backed by the influential Koch brothers, were publicly disappointed in the Florida governor — who not so long ago said the Affordable Care Act was “the biggest job killer in the history of the country.”
Now, it will be Scott’s job to help implement it.
Given his prominence, Scott’s move from Obamacare opponent to grudging supporter may be the biggest symbolic shift on the law since its passage.
The Florida governor was reportedly pressured by state legislators to negotiate with federal officials over the ACA, once November’s election made clear that Obamacare was here to stay.
But Scott won’t be the last GOP official to change his tune. More health care groups in other Republican-led states are putting similar pressure on their leaders to opt into the ACA’s Medicaid expansion, in hopes of securing additional dollars for providers.
November 16 marks the deadline for states to submit their plans for establishing a health insurance exchange—or HIX—either on their own or with some level of assistance from the federal government. For those states, a majority, according to Kaiser Family Foundation research, have yet to set up a HIX or develop concrete plans to do so. That’s an uncomfortably tight timeline in which to make some tough decisions.
According to the Supreme Court’s June ruling on the Affordable Care Act, states will no longer forfeit federal funding for Medicaid if they choose not to expand their Medicaid programs to all residents with incomes below 138 percent of the federal poverty level. Nevertheless, they must ensure coverage for an estimated 16 million currently uninsured people with an income between 100 percent and 400 percent of that poverty level. And by October 2013, each state needs to demonstrate that it has a HIX in place that can provide such cover: A user-friendly, one-stop shop for affordable healthcare, or affirmatively state that it intends to participate in the Federal exchange..
A HIX needs to have sufficient scale to support large and balanced risk pools. But there may not be sufficient numbers of uninsured state residents to make the HIX viable, particularly if a state is small, or has an extensive Medicaid program already in place. How will such states attract and sustain enrollment? How will they attract payers?