By THOMAS WILSON PhD, DrPH and VINCE KURAITIS JD, MBA
A recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine reported on the results of a “hotspotting” program created by the Camden Coalition of Healthcare Providers (Camden Coalition). Hotspotting targets interventions at all or a subset of healthcare superutilizers – the 5% of patients that account for 50% of annual healthcare spending.
of the study were disappointing. While utilization (hospital readmissions)
declined for the hotspotting group, the declines were almost identical in the
control group. At least three headlines
implied that the conclusion of the study was that hotspotting care management
approaches have been proven not to work:
explain, we believe that much of what’s going on here can be explained by one
or both of what we call “RTM Traps” (regression to the mean traps).
essay, we will:
Define RTM (regression to the mean)
Explain the RTM Traps and how many
have fallen into the traps
Suggest how to avoid the RTM Traps
our POV is relevant to clinical, technical, and executive staff in the many
organizations focusing on the superutilizer population – hospitals, physicians,
ACOs, health plans, community groups, etc.
We’ve reached the end of the list, on ideas to reduce oncology costs put forth by Drs. Smith and Hillner in the May 25 issue of the NEJM. Really this 10th and final point intended for oncologists is two-in-one: “The need for cost-effectiveness analysis and for some limits of care must be accepted,” they chart. So doctors should embrace studies of comparative effectiveness and cost effectiveness.
Hard to argue with reason — they’re correct, of course. They write:
… The national imperative is to empower a transparent, acceptable, equitable, politically independent agency for guidance in making tough choices in the public interest so that doctors do not have to make them at the bedside.60 Ultimately, we will have to make decisions based on some criteria, and comparative-effectiveness61 and cost-effectiveness62 analyses are good ways to align resource use with the greatest health benefit.
This sounds great, and is probably right, but I don’t think it’s realistic.
Conservatives love to apply “cost-benefit analysis” to government programs—except in health care. In fact, working with drug companies and warning of “death panels,” they slipped language into Obamacare banning cost-effectiveness research. Here’s how that happened, and why it can’t stand.
Why are you reading this when you could be doing jumping jacks?
And how come you’ve gone on to read this sentence when you could be having a colonoscopy?
You and I could be doing all sorts of things right now that we have reason to believe would improve our health and life expectancy. We could be working out at the gym, or waiting in a doctor’s office to have our bodies scanned and probed for tumors and polyps. We could be using this time to eat a steaming plate of broccoli, or attending a support group to help us overcome some unhealthy habit.
Yet you are not doing those things right now, and the chances are very strong that I am not either. Why not?