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POLICY: Guesses at important dates…

In the comments to Brian Klepper’s piece yesterday, troublemaker commenter JD asks the following

Matt, I don’t know if you can do polls on this site, but I’d be interested to see what the readers here would guess as the date universal healthcare legislation passes. My own guess is that SCHIP expansion happens in 2009 (if not sooner), and effectively universal coverage is passed in 2011, effective in 2012. And my guess is that it is more like the Massachusetts model, actually, than Medicare-for-all. Idle wonkery, to be sure, but enjoyable idle wonkery.

I can’t easily put up a poll without pulling John off some real work, but you can all give your best guesses below. How about these three questions.

1) When will SCHIP pass?

2) When will comprehensive health care reform pass the Congress and get signed by the President?

3) When will we get to what reasonable people would agree was 100% universal coverage?

Have fun!

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SteveHMatt GuldinZach ShoupLynnTom Leith Recent comment authors
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SteveH
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SteveH

1. In 2008
2 and 3. Sometime around 2018-19 at the earliest. We’re going to have to wait until things get much, much worse before the US gov’t can act.

Matt Guldin
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Matt Guldin

1 is an easier political sell than 2 or 3 and a lot cheaper. I am much more optimistic it will happen sooner. To steal a thought from Arnold Milstein, Americans will only have 100% universal coverage when they go kicking and screaming to the polls because of bankruptcy issues associated with medical costs. The big issue isn’t going to be the uninsured which is consistently overrated as a factor when discussing healthcare reform. The uninsured population is primarily made of people who are either in low income levels, poorly educated, or young people. None of these groups vote in… Read more »

Zach Shoup
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1. I would be shocked if SCHIP is allowed expire, so I expect to see some sort of action when Congress is back in session. I highly doubt we will see expansions until after the 2008 elections though.
2. Comprehensive health care reform is a long, long way out. It will come much later than patchwork universal coverage. 2020-ish.
3. 2011, if a Dem wins.

Lynn
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Lynn

1) When will SCHIP pass? Fall 2008 2) When will comprehensive health care reform pass the Congress and get signed by the President? By 2012 if we elect a Dem in 2008 if not 2020 at the earliest. 3) When will we get to what reasonable people would agree was 100% universal coverage? Not in my lifetime–I’m 55, self employed and uninsured. First,”reasonable” people have to agree that healthcare is a public service and not a private good. We’ve reached a tipping point but not the meltdown point. America’s middle class still believe being uninsured only happens to those other… Read more »

Tom Leith
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Tom Leith

1: After 2008
2: When < 50% of working people get decent coverage
as a perq of employment. Could be never.
3: When < 50% of people get decent coverage
somehow. Probably never.

Barry Carol
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Barry Carol

#1 – 2008 if Democrats agree to cap eligibility at 300% of FPL; otherwise, 2009. #2 – 2010 #3 – 2011 With respect to #2 and #3, it is important to note that the history of major program reforms in the U.S. is that they need to be bipartisan. In the post World War II era, just about any Senate Minority Whip will tell you that it is fairly easy to get 41 votes to block legislation via the filibuster. Thus, as a practical matter, 60 votes are needed to push major and controversial legislation through the Senate. The risk… Read more »

bev M.D.
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bev M.D.

OK, I’ll bite.
1. don’t know, probably soon.
2,3. Must go together so should be same date. I am a pessimist, say 2015 or later. This will be a looonngg fight.