The history of president Obama’s health reform bears an uncanny and disturbing similarity to the life cycle of a hurricane. With Sandy fresh in our memory, the similarity is not comforting.

Hurricanes have three phases. The front wall of the storm brings high winds, lightening, and rain. Next, at the hurricane’s center, or eye, the wind drops and the air warms. If one is at sea, the water may turn calm and warm, bringing the illusion that the storm has ended. As the storm moves on, wind and rain return, often with increased force. Those fooled by the calm who leave safe havens may be destroyed by what follows.

The life cycle of a hurricane will bear an eerie similarity to that of health reform. Nearly four years elapsed between president Obama’s initial call for national health reform until the bill became law and the Supreme Court ruled on its constitutionality. The political and legal turmoil was intense and continuous. The process was rancorous and the outcome in doubt from start to finish. It took a bitterly fought presidential election to put an end to this phase of the struggle.

Now, we are in a period of relative calm. The 2012 election settled the immediate fate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The candidate who swore to repeal it lost. The ACA was the major domestic legislative achievement of the victorious incumbent president who won reelection. Now, eighteen states are in process of designing rules for health insurance exchanges — the administrative entities that will manage implementation of the new law, the most important provisions of which will take effect one year hence. The other states will either leave implementation entirely to the federal government or share administrative responsibilities with federal agencies.

A huge amount of work remains to be done by October 1, 2013 when people can begin enrolling for insurance coverage in the new exchanges.

• Data systems have to be developed.

• Software must be written and computers purchased to permit on-line enrollment or assist officials in signing people up in hundreds, if not thousands, of offices.

• State insurance regulations need to be conformed to the new national law. Insurance companies must design the plans they will offer through the exchanges and, in most states, the separate products that they will offer outside the exchanges.

• Small businesses will have to decide what plans to offer their employees. Individuals and employees of those businesses need to be informed of the options they face and decide what products to buy.

• The state insurance exchanges or their federal equivalent will have to enroll people, compute the subsidy to which each person is entitled, and pay that subsidy to the insurer that each person has selected.

• Myriad other activities are going on in many federal government offices and to a greater or lesser extent–or not at all–in state government agencies.

By its very nature, these activities are decentralized and dull. No exchange, other than two that existed before enactment of the Affordable Care Act, has yet opened its doors or will before late 2013. No one is yet applying to them for insurance coverage or for subsidies. A hive of activity is ongoing in state and federal agencies, but no one is fully aware of everything that is going on. More importantly, perhaps, no one is aware of what activities that should be but are not going on. Like those in the eye of a hurricane, a deceptive and short-lived calm is upon us.

The storm will gather force once again starting on October 1, 2013. That is when millions of people will start applying for coverage through the newly created health insurance exchanges. Exactly how many will apply will depend on the rules that the 18 states setting up their own exchanges and the federal government adopt. The full fury of the storm will return on January 1, 2014. Nothing approaching the complexity of this ‘roll out’ has ever taken place in U.S. peacetime history.

To appreciate what is involved, consider the complexity of the law.

• People will be eligible for coverage in one of the following ways: 1) through Medicaid, if their income is below 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) in those states that choose to extend Medicaid coverage as permitted under the ACA, but only those with incomes up to 100 percent of FPL will be covered in those states that do not extend coverage; 2) through a ‘basic health plan’ if their income is between the Medicaid level and 200 percent of the FPL in those states that adopt such a plan (but the federal regulations for such plans have not yet been released); 3) through ordinary insurance if they are not covered by Medicaid or a basic health plan, with subsidies provided through the exchange if their income is less than 400 percent of the FPL and without subsidies if their incomes are above 400 percent of the FPL.

• People within the same family may be eligible for coverage under two or more categories of coverage.

• Each exchange will offer insurance at a minimum of four levels of generosity. People under age 30 will have a fifth option, a special bare-bones class of insurance to keep costs down.

• The subsidy payable to an individual depends both on his or her own income and on the coverage categories of other family members.

• Coverage and subsidy amounts can change if income changes—for example, if the person or some other family member changes employment status—or if family structure changes.

• Premium subsidy amounts, based on current income or income expected over some future period are paid directly to the particular insurer that the enrollee selects. If those payments turn out to be excessive—for example, because income rose after application, the individual must repay the overage, up to legislatively specified maximums based on income.

• Families residing in metropolitan areas that span state borders, such as New York, Washington DC, Kansas City, or St. Louis, may have family members working in different states and, hence, come under different exchange rules.

• The federal government must provide earnings data for people, many of whom do not and will not file tax returns that are sufficiently accurate and current to enable the health exchanges to compute the correct subsidies for applicants. Tax returns and Social Security earnings records won’t do, as they are available now only with delays of months or even years.

• Individuals will be required to carry insurance of one sort or another that meets standards under the law and may have other features required by the state exchanges. They are subject to a fine if they fail to do so, but there is no effective enforcement mechanism other than failure to return tax refunds due people who had more tax withheld than they end up owing. The requirement is waived altogether if premiums exceed more than certain proportions of income.

This is just a partial list of the more visible administrative challenges that have to be met. Confronting this list, one could either feel optimistic or lapse into despair. Optimists regarding prospects for implementation will recall the comparatively trouble-free introductions of two other even larger federal programs—Social Security and Medicare. These programs differed in essential and administratively-relevant ways from the Affordable Care Act. Both entailed relatively simple eligibility criteria—age or disability and requisite work experience over many years. Under both programs, workers and their employers were required simply to pay a tax proportional to covered earnings. Social Security beneficiaries initially had nothing to do other than cash the checks they receive each month. Administration of Medicare is somewhat more complex and subject to error and fraud. Even so, the challenges under the ACA associated with enrolling people, determining subsidies, paying them to the right companies, and adjusting subsidies as circumstances change are vastly more complicated.

Pessimists might conclude that implementation will inevitably break down or go through an error-prone period of administrative over-load so long and politically fraught that program collapse is likely. In contrast to the redundancy built into such complex enterprises as the space program—where, if one system fails, one, two, or even three back-up systems are built in to keep things working—health reform is replete with elements each of which is vital to success, such that if any one fails, the whole system could ‘seize up’ and fail. Determining eligibility, keeping track of which type of insurance applies to which family members, computing subsidies, and making sure that premiums go to the right insurers will be a never-ending headache.

In my view, neither the optimistic nor the pessimistic view is fully justified, although the pessimists have the better case, at least at the outset. The mixed-public-private insurance system perpetuated in the ACA is inherently complex. But, with time, bugs in the software will be ironed out and initially overloaded and imperfect data systems will be steadily improved. Among the 18 states setting up exchanges, a few are bound to get the job mostly done and show the way for other states. In brief, with time, most administrative problems can be overcome. The major challenge will be to make sure that the system works in enough places and fast enough to permit supporters to point to the successes and explain that the inevitable glitches are reparable. It is also worth noting that were Congress not neck deep in a swamp of partisanship legislators could find ways to minimize the problems that remain.

The actual course of events after January 1, 2014 is likely to be stormy and filled with developments investigative reporters will enthusiastically describe and ACA opponents will point to with relish. There is every prospect that during the years 2014 and 2015 the political storms will be as furious as they were when a committed president and Democratic Congressional leadership gave life to the long-delayed dream of national health reform. Those who said that the presidential election would settle the fate of heath reform will be proven mostly right. But it will become clear that they had the date wrong: the key election will turn out to have been not 2012, but 2016.

Henry J. Aaron is a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution. Aaron focuses on the reform of health care financing; public systems such as Medicare and Medicaid; Social Security; and tax and budget policy. This piece originally appeared at the Brookings Institution blog.

Share on Twitter

12 Responses for “Health Reform: The Political Storms Are Far from Over”

  1. BobbyG says:

    Nice post. This whole PPACA HIX thing is a disaster waiting to happen. My state (NV) ran a year behind just launching their Medicaid Meaningful Use attestation portal (a relatively simple web portal). It remains buggy.

    PPACA has some good elements in it, but the huge “corporate welfare”/”outright welfare” component is a POS.

  2. Curly Harrison, MD says:

    Adding to the shortage of doctors is the 25 page revalidation application for Medicare doctors.

    This was a subtle provision in PPACA.

    Hundreds if not thousands of doctors know nothing about this and are about to have their Medicare ID numbers de-activated.

  3. John Ballard says:

    All the snafus mentioned are valid but something tells me they may cause less of a mess than expected for two reasons.

    First, many uninsured people, especially those at the bottom of the economy, have never been insured and will remain in the dark about their eligibility.
    Second, many more will know about it but will not take the initiative to enroll, waiting until somebody gets sick, naively presuming they can do it later as well as sooner.

    I do have one fear that I have not seen mentioned. In the same way that the poor have always been exploited by third-party “services” I expect to see a wave of little enterprises charging fees to “help” beneficiaries “select the insurance that best fits their situation.” They might even be insurance company reps, trained cherry-pickers, looking for healthy prospects.

    My years managing the working poor have given me a very jaundiced view of tax preparation and check cashing outfits that build business charging for what can be obtained for no charge. There may be a good reason for companies not to cash their own checks (too much cash on hand = soft robbery target) but the bank on which the checks are drawn will usually cash payroll checks with proper ID. Some churches and other organizations will assist people filing income tax returns as well as the IRS itself. But many of the places that file for a fee will boost that fee to file electronically, reducing further the amount being returned to someone already short of cash.

    I sense so much hand-wringing on the part of medical and insurance providers, nay-saying by political types and bitching on the part of already insured people (many of whom pay lower premiums thanks to employer contributions) that I’m forming an equally jaundiced view of the people who should be looking for ways to expedite solutions. Those who are not part of the solution become part of the problem.

    • Peter1 says:

      “First, many uninsured people, especially those at the bottom of the economy, have never been insured and will remain in the dark about their eligibility.
      Second, many more will know about it but will not take the initiative to enroll, waiting until somebody gets sick, naively presuming they can do it later as well as sooner.”

      John, other than free, what will the healthy poor and/or young pay for coverage?

  4. Eric says:

    It is quite interesting to see the staggering challenges of implementing the Affordable Care Act described in such blunt terms by someone who is a strong supporter of the legislation. Frankly, if I was a Tea Party follower who wanted to make the case that ObamaCare is going to become a bureaucratic nightmare, there are entire paragraphs I could lift from this article to make my point. This article sort of reminds me of things that supporters of the Iraq war were saying 3 years after the invasion, e.g., “this is harder to do than we imagined, we had no idea what we were getting into.” Note that California (for example) is seeking $700 million from the Federal government to set-up and run the state’s exchange for just the first 2 years of the program—if the program fails to control health insurance premiums and sign up a large chunk of the currently uninsured, this is going to look like a lot of $$$ going down the drain. I have always felt that the fundamental problem with ObamaCare is not that it is propelled by too much government (as conservatives believe) or that it is propelled by too little government (as left-wing supporters of a single-payer program argue), rather the problem is that it is way too complicated. Whatever his intentions, Henry Aaron proves my point.

  5. DeterminedMD says:

    My last post of 2012 here, will let former Governor Robert Erhlich say it better with more alleged data and facts to show you how fully dishonest and disingenuous the Democrap party has been in passing this legislation and just minimizing and deflecting the consequences every freakin’ day since.

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-ehrlich-obamacare-20121230,0,7914983.story

    Enjoy it. And should any usual partisan hack try to tell us all how partisan and inaccurate what is reported above, just remember one thing: the Supreme Court sided with the law because IT IS A TAX!!!

    All you losers who just want to be taxed to death, please just die so those of us who want to enjoy some of the fruits of our labor can return to that pursuit. Really, you think you can negotiate with zealots and extremists? I guess watching the absurdity of the fiscal cliff negotiations has taught the citizenry absolutely nothing of what really goes on in DC!!!

    Happy New Year, same as the old year!

  6. Tim Tanparent, PhD says:

    All patients will suffer as the funds go to pay for HIT devices that have no proof of efficacy or safety, while medicine can not be afforded or covered, and sick patients get sent to pasture at commercial nursing homes and LTACS. What has become of the way this country treats its sick and defenseless?

    • BobbyG says:

      HIT cost is a relative spit in the U.S. NHE ocean, which, across the coming 4 years, will be somewhere on the order of a quadrillion dollars, irrespective of which laws govern it Moreover, once you “net out” — unless you advocate doing away with all medical record keeping — it’s nanoscopic.

      • BobbyG says:

        “Providers, payers, and physician groups will be spending over $69 billion on healthcare related IT and telecommunications services over the next six years, according to a market research study released by the Mountain Lakes, N.J.-based Insight Research Corporation. The report says that spending by the US healthcare industry on telecommunications services will grow at a compounded rate of 9.7 percent over the forecast period, increasing from $9.1 billion in 2012 to $14.4 billion in 2017. as the number of healthcare locations expands by 16 percent and the healthcare employment rate increases 2.5 times faster than the total national employment rate…”
        __

        http://www.healthcare-informatics.com/news-item/report-health-it-spending-exceed-69-billion-over-six-year-period.

        I was wrong on the quad thing (imagine — shoot-from-the-lip hyperbole here on this blog).

        Estimate of NHE x 6 upcoming across the same period is more like $16.2 trillion. Conservatively.

        $70 billion / $16.2 trillion = 0.44% — gross. Less than half a percent prior to netting out.

        As to perfect “proof,” I guess we should all yet be riding around in oxcarts and on donkeys, given the bloody history of incremental alternative transportation safety improvements. We won’t even try to “net out” the relative antecedent safety record of Flintstone Travel.
        __

        “sick patients get sent to pasture at commercial nursing homes”

        I have, like a lot of people, some extended personal experience with that. I recently finished cutting checks totaling about $300k for LTC for my late Ma (across 4 years).

        There is indeed much that is materially lacking in the way we administer health care. Health IT is not a big part of the problem. And, better Health IT will be a significant component of any “solutions.”

  7. abjainar says:

    If you care about the healthcare crisis, comments and debates in this forum are important, but here’s a chance to make a more immediate and solid difference. My brother-in-law–one of the most decent guys I know–despite long hours working in construction for years, was a volunteer EMT, life saver, dedicated husband and father. He’s now a textbook casualty of the recession and an example of the failure of our healthcare. After the bottom fell out of his construction job when the recession hit, he, my sister, and my young niece weathered unemployment and foreclosure. They never stopped being the kind, giving family they always were, and things starting looking up when he took a paid job as an EMT, but the hiring company wouldn’t provide health insurance. Last summer, they lost all remaining savings when he suffered a sudden, surprise pancreatitis that destroyed most of his pancreas, nearly killed him, and forces him to be on medicine for the rest of his life; the medicine alone is over $700/month, and the multiple surgeries and procedures have erased all that was left of their hard-earned savings. Please go to http://helpdanandruth.yolasite.com/ and make a difference.

  8. Hello, I log on to your blogs on a regular basis.
    Your story-telling style is witty, keep it up!

Leave a Reply

FROM THE VAULT

The Power of Small Why Doctors Shouldn't Be Healers Big Data in Healthcare. Good or Evil? Depends on the Dollars. California's Proposition 46 Narrow Networking

Masthead

Matthew Holt
Founder & Publisher

John Irvine
Executive Editor

Jonathan Halvorson
Editor

Alex Epstein
Director of Digital Media

Munia Mitra, MD
Chief Medical Officer

Vikram Khanna
Editor-At-Large, Wellness

Joe Flower
Contributing Editor

Michael Millenson
Contributing Editor

We're looking for bloggers. Send us your posts.

If you've had a recent experience with the U.S. health care system, either for good or bad, that you want the world to know about, tell us.

Have a good health care story you think we should know about? Send story ideas and tips to editor@thehealthcareblog.com.

ADVERTISE


Questions on reprints, permissions and syndication to ad_sales@thehealthcareblog.com.

THCB MARKETPLACE

Reach a super targeted healthcare audience with your text ad.
ad_sales@thehealthcareblog.com

ADVERTISEMENT

Log in - Powered by WordPress.