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The Uninsured Crisis: Letter from Arizona

By EMMANUEL SARKEES

Arizona consistently ranks among the states with the highest uninsured rates in the nation. Over 800,000 residents lack health coverage, a number shaped not by failure, but by a consistency of structural, geographic, financial, and linguistic barriers that have been poorly addressed for decades. What makes Arizona’s situation this severe is that the demographic makeup, geographic issues, policy history, and high uninsured rate do not exist as separate problems, but as a link of issues where each difficulty increases the next.

In the United States, health insurance is not just a financial factor, but it is the primary mechanism through which people gain access to healthcare. Without insurance, an annual checkup becomes a pricey luxury, a chronic illness becomes undealt with, and a slight emergency can devastate someone’s life finances. This can be seen at its highest in Arizona, where Arizona ranks 43rd in the nation for its uninsured rate at 10.3%, carrying higher rates of disease mortality and late stage sickness as a result.

Who Arizona’s Uninsured Actually Are

One of the most common misconceptions about uninsured communities is that they are mostly unemployed. In Arizona, that is simply not accurate. A huge part of the state’s uninsured population works full time in agriculture, construction, and food service, where there is a shortage of health benefits. Although coverage is technically available through an employer, the costs to maintain these benefits are often too high in relation to their earnings. This leaves a large group of people in an unfortunate circumstance: they make too much to qualify for AHCCCS, Arizona’s Medicaid program, but too little to afford insurance plans. They fall into a coverage gap that lacks a current policy built to close it.

The data is also clear that the consequences do not distribute evenly. Hispanic and Latino residents are uninsured at higher rates than white Arizonans, while Native American and Indigenous people endure similar circumstances, surged through the federal government’s history of underfunding tribal healthcare and the fact that these communities often live in remote areas where there is a lack of healthcare infrastructure. Geography adds to this further, as uninsured rates are highest in rural and border areas like Yuma, Santa Cruz, Apache, and Navajo, communities that already greatly lack economic opportunities and healthcare infrastructure compared to urban areas like Phoenix and Tucson.

What Happens When People Can’t Get Care

All of these barriers have real consequences. Conditions that are quite easy and simple to treat become serious issues by the time they are finally caught. Social factors like insurance status stand as one of the greatest predictors of whether someone gets cancer and whether they survive it. Late stage cancer diagnoses are not just bad luck, but in some cases, are dependent on whether the patient was able to access the routine checks that would have easily caught it earlier.

Chronic conditions like diabetes and hypertension are another area where being uninsured causes serious, life-altering harm. These conditions need to be managed consistently with regular checkups and medication. Uninsured people often cannot afford visits or medication, so the conditions go unmanaged and worsen over time. A striking example: GLP-1 medications increased 442% in price between 2021 and 2023, creating a market three times larger than cancer spending, with list prices reaching $1,400. The fundamental issue is not just prices, but a system where everyone is focused on maximizing revenue rather than patient outcomes.

When uninsured patients consistently resort to the emergency room because of a lack of options, those costs do not disappear.

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The Pain Index

A recent report by the New York Times contained an excellent graphic showing the current percentage of uninsured people in each state.  The range is from a high of 24.6% in Texas to a low of 4.4% in Massachusetts.I have combined this rate with the most recently reported CDC rate of obesity in each state to create what I call The Pain Index.  It is a simple sum of the two numbers. 

The theory behind the total is that obesity is a rough guide for the level of unhealthiness in the population.  My hypothesis is that, when insurance is made available to people, they will use it, roughly in proportion to the degree they are unhealthy.

Yes, I know this is a crude metric, but I think it will be a relatively good predictor of the rate of increase in health care costs in each state over the coming years.  This will show up in the insurance premium rates offered in the health care exchanges and will also affect the need for state appropriations to pay for newly eligible Medicaid subscribers.

States with a Pain Index in the top decile are: Texas, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas.  Others with scores over 45 are Nevada, Florida, New Mexico, Georgia, Alaska, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and West Virginia.

My advice to policy-makers:  Get ready!  My advice to health care CEOs:  This would be a really good time to focus on quality, safety, and front-line driven process improvement as the most effective way to reduce your costs and improve efficiency.

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