As we enter summer, the health reform process is moving into its Newtonian phase: irresistible forces meeting immovable objects. In both health cost and access, the trend is not our friend. There is ample evidence not only of intolerable inequities, but also intolerable waste and inappropriate use of expensive clinical tools. President Obama embodies the need for change. He has assembled a very talented and politically savvy crew of helpers. He confronts the sternest test of any Presidency, fixing a poorly tuned and fragmented health system that is, by itself, larger than either the French or British economy.
Open Wide: Here comes the change you thought would never happen
The morning after the election, I posted a speculative blog in Health Affairs on three possible scenarios for President-elect Obama’s implementing health reform: folding it into a bold, ambitious emergency legislative package (Complete the New Deal), carving funding out of the current $2.5 trillion national health spend (Braveheart), and postponing implementation until the economy recovers but taking steps now to prepare for it (Wait/Lay the Groundwork).
At the time, the Wait/Lay the Groundwork option seemed 70 percent likely. But with economic conditions worsening, I’m now convinced Obama will probably opt instead for the Complete the New Deal option, and try to implement health reform in the first 120 days of his Presidency, before the health care industry “dragon” can even stir from its cave.
Let’s call Obama’s program The Real Deal. We can already see its contours: an economic stimulus program including highway construction and other state-directed public works, a green energy spending initiative, emergency housing assistance including a foreclosure prevention measure, an auto industry bailout, labor law reform and income supports through tax credits for low income people.
Health Reform Prospects Fade as Presidential Campaign Enters Homestretch
Jeff Goldsmith is President of Health Futures, Inc, and a professor of public health sciences at the University of Virginia.
As presidential aspirants geared up their issue analyses last fall, health reform ranked as the number one domestic policy item the next President should address in many national public opinion polls. As the campaign season draws to a close, however, health reform has virtually disappeared from the headlines, supplanted by concern about gas prices, home mortgage foreclosures, soaring food costs and, most recently, the "Soviet" invasion of Georgia. Though you will hear campaign rhetoric from both parties at their upcoming conventions, health reform has been demoted to the second tier of campaign issues. Their platforms and campaign pledges on health reform seem increasingly unlikely to decide who is the next president of the United States.
As previously argued in this space, "health reform" really meant doing something about "health costs for my family" to most voters, not reducing inequity in access to coverage. Ninety-three percent of the voting public has health insurance of some kind. It is clear now that voter concern last fall about health reform was really a leading indicator of anxiety about the deteriorating economy and their own household economic insecurity. As Brian Klepper pointed out a few months ago in THCB, the purchasing power in real dollars of the American paycheck moved into negative territory last September, thanks to the rising price of energy, food and the resetting of home mortgages to higher rates. All these problems have worsened materially in the ensuing year