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Tag: Jay Bhattacharya

We Should Write a Really Stern Letter

By KIM BELLARD

On the heels of the disastrous floods in Texas, days away from the Hurricane Katrina twenty year anniversary, and with Hurricane Erin almost becoming another Hurricane Sandy, the dedicated employees at FEMA are worried. Very worried. They’ve got a President who repeatedly has called to dismantle the agency, a DHS Secretary who is more interested in photo ops and slow walking expenditure requests, and an acting administrator who has no experience in emergency management. Oh, and they’ve suffered losses of about a third of their workforce.  

So some of the more outspoken employees have written a letter.  That should do the trick.

The letter, which they call the FEMA Katrina Declaration, was signed by almost two hundred current and past employees (although only three dozen allowed their names to be public). They charge:

Since January 2025, FEMA has been under the leadership of individuals lacking legal qualifications, Senate approval, and the demonstrated background required of a FEMA Administrator. Decisions made by FEMA’s Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Administrator (SOPDA) David Richardson, Former SOPDA Cameron Hamilton, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem erode the capacity of FEMA and our State, Local, Tribal, and Territorial (SLTT) partners, hinder the swift execution of our mission, and dismiss experienced staff whose institutional knowledge and relationships are vital to ensure effective emergency management.

The letter goes on to list “Six Statements of Opposition,” calling to reverse various actions the Administration has taken that they believe impairs FEMA’s ability to fulfill its mission. Each seems perfectly reasonable, and none seems likely to result in action, at least unless/until disasters strike enough red states to force action.

FEMA spokesperson Daniel Llargues was not impressed, responding: “It is not surprising that some of the same bureaucrats who presided over decades of inefficiency are now objecting to reform. Change is always hard. It is especially for those invested in the status quo. But our obligation is to survivors, not to protecting broken systems.”

I probably wouldn’t have paid much attention to the letter, except it comes two months after some 90 NIH scientists issued their “Bethesda Declaration” to protest what has been happening to the NIH so far in the Trump Administration. Addressed to Director Jay Bhattacharya, it declared:

For staff across the National Institutes of Health (NIH), we dissent to Administration policies that undermine the NIH mission, waste public resources, and harm the health of Americans and people across the globe. Keeping NIH at the forefront of biomedical research requires our stalwart commitment to continuous improvement. But the life-and-death nature of our work demands that changes be thoughtful and vetted. We are compelled to speak up when our leadership prioritizes political momentum over human safety and faithful stewardship of public resources.  

The Declaration lists five categories of cuts the Administration has taken, about which they warn: “Combined, these actions have resulted in an unprecedented reduction in NIH spending that does not reflect efficiency but rather a dramatic reduction in life-saving research.”

Amen to that.

Director Bhattacharya was somewhat more respectful than Mr. Llargues in his response, claiming: “The Bethesda Declaration has some fundamental misconceptions about the policy directions the NIH has taken in recent months, including the continuing support of the NIH for international collaboration. Nevertheless, respectful dissent in science is productive. We all want the NIH to succeed.”

I don’t believe him. This Administration does not recognize any dissent as “respectful.”

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A Health Economist to lead the NIH

By SAURABH JHA

Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic a seroprevalence study from Santa Clara indicated that the viral spread was far greater than was believed. The study suggested that the infection fatality rate (IFR) was much lower than the case fatality rate and perhaps even lower than the suspected IFR. The researchers estimated that 2.8% of the county had been infected by April 2020. The virus was contagious and, most importantly, caused many asymptomatic infections.  

The study, released as a preprint within a month of the lockdown, should have been published by the NEJM or Lancet. The specificity of the immunoassay was a whopping 99.5% and could not have been lower than 98.5%. Instead, it was roundly criticized by born-again methodological purists. Noted statistician, Andrew Gelman, known expert at dealing with (very) imperfect statistical methods, wanted an apology from the researchers for wasting everyone’s time by making “avoidable screw ups.”

Around the same time, a similar study published in JAMA came to similar conclusions. Researchers found that the seroprevalence COVID-19 antibodies in LA county was 4.65%, 367 000 adults had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, substantially greater than the 8430 confirmed infections. They concluded that “contact tracing methods to limit the spread of infection will face considerable challenges.” No one asked the researchers for an apology, presumably because the study had passed anonymous peer review and had escaped the wrath of the medical commentariat.

A few months later, a German study suggested that many infected with COVID-19 had myocarditis. This meant that the asymptomatic were not just reservoirs of viral transmission, but walking tombs of cardiac doom. By many, the researchers, who used cardiac MRI to look for myocarditis, put a figure at nearly 80%. That’s a lot. No virus had ever done that. That number itself should have invited scrutiny. The animated, born-again empiricists, who has been energized by the Santa Clara study into becoming methodological sleuths, went into hibernation after the German myocarditis study. The study was swallowed uncritically by many and was covered by the NY Times.

If the rigor demanded of the Santa Clara study was that of a Pythagorean proof, the German myocarditis study received the scrutiny of a cult prophet. The burden of proof in them days was like shifting sand, which shifted depending on the implications of the research. The Santa Clara study suggested the test – isolate strategy was forlorn, as controlling the viral spread was akin to chasing one’s tail. The German myocarditis study was cautionary, emphasizing that that the virus should not be under estimated, as even asymptomatic infections could be deadly. The Santa Clara study challenged lockdowns, the German study supported lockdowns.

The senior author of the Santa Clara study, Jay Bhattacharya, has been nominated by President Trump to be the next NIH director. His nomination has surprised a few, upset a few, irritated a few, shocked a few and, as befits a polarized country, pleased many. Bhattacharya may well have won the popular vote, though I’m uncertain he will win the institutional vote.

Bhattacharya’s anti-lockdown views rapidly made him a persona non grata in academic circles.

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