When California announced that individual premiums in its health insurance exchange could be 29% lower than expected, President Obama cheered. When Indiana announced premiums might be 72% higher than before, state officials predicted doom. So who is right? Are health insurance premiums going up or down?
We don’t know, at least in part, because both sides are playing with the numbers. To be sure, natural variation exists in how state insurance markets will be affected, but consumers should also be aware of how premium comparisons are twisted to reach predetermined results. Here are five ways they have been slanted:
- First, when the math suits your agenda, there is a tendency to conflate premiums for insurance purchased on ObamaCare’s new exchanges with those in the private market. Next year, only about2.5% of us will pay the exchange rates for purchasing our insurance. Since the vast majority of Americans will continue to receive health coverage through their employer, Medicare or Medicaid, the issue is smaller than we’re led to believe.
- Second, the impact of the Affordable Care Act varies widely for different subsets of the population. Opponents of ObamaCare tend to focus on the demographic least likely to benefit: young, healthy males, many of whom don’t buy insurance now and might pay higher premiums when entering the market next year than they’d pay today. Supporters, on the other hand, concentrate on older individuals and people with chronic conditions who are currently unable to buy insurance or forced to pay exorbitantly high premiums.
