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There Be Dragons: The Fiscal Risk Of Premium Subsidies In Health Reform

• 14

By JEFF GOLDSMITH

Last week, the Congressional Budget Office weighed in on the biggest economic imponderable in the health care debate: how private health insurance premiums will behave under health reform. Building on its December 2008 CBO health insurance market analysis, CBO forecast largely benign effects from health reform’s private market reforms and subsidies on the vast majority of the presently insured (e.g. voting public).

According to CBO, only 17% of Americans in the so-called non-group market–largely individuals–would see premium increases in 2016 (the CBO reference year), because they would be required to purchase fatter benefits with less economic risk. CBO believes that the other 83% of the presently insured will see little or no change.

Analysis of how the health insurance market will behave under health reform has become ferociously politicized. After the infamous PriceWaterhouseCoopers study sponsored by health insurers suggested possible large premium increases, the CBO report might provide cover for members of Congress who are contemplating irreversibly tying the federal budget to a volatile “private” insurance market. I think the fiscal risks of a partially federalized private health benefit are significantly greater than CBO has suggested.

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Death by a Thousand Cuts

• 5

By ROBERT LASZEWSKI

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report today saying that if the Reid bill becomes law, the price of non group policies would be about 10 percent to 13 percent higher in 2016 than it would be under current law. The CBO projects that small group and large group premiums would be about the same in 2016 as they would have been anyway as the benefits of the bill would offset some of its new costs.

But what is likely to happen to health insurance rates in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 before any of the bill’s benefits occur for both the insurance markets and consumers?

I would suggest Democrats not overlook the potential for political fallout in those years.

By delaying the start of most health insurance reform benefits—including insurance subsidies and underwriting reforms—until January 1, 2014 the Reid health care bill creates a real risk of unintended political consequences for the Democrats.

Or, maybe I should have said almost certain consequences that Reid may not have thought of.

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The Phony Price Tag for Health Reform

• 15

By DAVID HANSEN

Davidhansen A few days ago my daughter, a physician serving largely the uninsured, came home emotionally drained from a typical day at the office. Most of her afternoon’s patients were seriously ill, facing expensive, complex care, and needlessly so. They had come into such poor health because of inadequate management of chronic conditions and mostly it was due to their inability to pay.

One of the day’s patients was a man in his forties who had been diagnosed with high blood pressure four years prior. Uninsured, he received inconsistent treatment for his condition, leading to a heart attack two years later. The attack precipitated heroic emergency room and then hospital treatments, free to him but expensive to the rest of us, including placement of a stent; however, with the immediate crisis over, lack of money for drugs led once again to gap-filled care. Key in his follow-up care should have been the drug Plavix, considered critical for avoiding clotting after stents, but he couldn’t afford it so he stopped taking it ten months too early. Now, just two years later, he’s developed severe high blood pressure that has damaged both his heart and kidney. Our medical system will provide him once again with heroic and very expensive hospital care, all of which likely could have been avoided if proper health care insurance had enabled his condition to be systematically managed for the past two years. The system as a whole, and likely government funding in particular, will end up paying hundreds of times more because his care was so poorly managed. Of course, we’re also losing a potentially productive man all the while, if not forever.

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The Federated Health System of America

• 4

By GLENN LAFFEL

6a00d8341c909d53ef0120a520865d970b-800wi After a spy plane confirmed the Soviet Union was building launch platforms for first-strike ballistic missiles in Cuba in October, 1962, President John F. Kennedy convened his Joint Chiefs of Staff and cabinet members to help him decide how to respond.

Kennedy managed the diverse input he received, including surreal, saber-rattling rants from Air Force General Curtis Lemay, and eventually resolved the crisis. It was the closest we ever came to nuclear war.

But the consensus-based, inclusive leadership style JFK used to resolve the Cuban Missile Crisis doesn’t seem to be working as well for President Obama as his Health Reform Express barrels towards an unknown final destination.

Take the latest cockamamie plans for the public option, for example. As the House and Senate struggle to cobble together some semblance of a bill, we hear that the end result is likely to contain a public option along with a rider that allows states to opt out of it if they so choose.This ridiculous compromise is the byproduct President Obama’s decision to let Congressional group-think generate a legislative package that (a)could pass Congress and (b)he could sign. In making this decision, Obama sacrificed his principles before the altar of political success.

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Is an IOM v. CBO Smackdown Looming on Health-Reform Costs?

• 8

By TIM MULLANEY

The U.S. can cut health-care spending by $250 billion a year within a decade, a
congressionally chartered panel will say this month in a bid to
show costs can be contained even if all Americans are insured.

A report from the Institute of Medicine, which advises the
federal government on health care, will counter “stingy”
estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, said Arnold
Milstein, planning chairman of the institute’s working group on
health costs. The panel’s annual figure is five times the amount
the budget office says the U.S. will save under a bill in the
House of Representatives, according to the budget office’s July
17 letter to House Ways and Means Committee chairman Charles
Rangel.

The preliminary findings from the institute, part of the
National Academies in Washington, will be issued amid a growing
debate over the health-care overhaul proposals that President
Barack Obama is urging Congress to pass. The report will help
bolster the argument that covering the nation’s 46 million
uninsured won’t bust the budget, advocates of the bill say.

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CBO: HELP Bill’s Public Plan Not Much Help on Costs

• 5

By MERRILL GOOZNER

The green-eyeshade meanies in the Congressional Budget Office took another whack at the public plan today, at least the one contained in the health reform bill passed by the Senate Health Education Labor and Pensions committee last June. Responding to queries from ranking member Michael Enzi (R-WY), CBO chief Doug Elmendorf noted on his blog that “premiums for the public plan would typically be comparable to the average premiums of private plans offered in the insurance exchanges.”

The reason given was the HELP bill emasculated the public plan’s ability to piggyback on the administrative efficiencies of Medicare and required it to be “financially self-sufficient.”Continue reading…

The Case for Taxing “Cadillac” Healthcare Coverage

• 39

By CLAYTON MCWHORTERClaytonMcWhorter1

With President Obama’s plan for healthcare reform recently being dealt a tough blow by the Congressional Budget Office over soaring federal deficit projections, I am beginning to wonder if it is time for the President to modify his stance against taxing “Cadillac” healthcare coverage offered by employers.  It’s no secret what Senator Max Baucus, the Democratic Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and one of the most powerful people in the healthcare reform debate, thinks President Obama should do.  Senator Baucus has been a vocal advocate of taxing healthcare benefits.  He recently told reporters that taxing employer-sponsored benefits is “the best way to raise money for an overhaul of the healthcare system.”  He has also been somewhat critical of President Obama’s decision to not tax healthcare benefits by saying, “Basically, the president is not helping us.”

In recent days, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the House Democratic legislation would add more than $230 billion to the federal budget deficit.  On the Senate side, Senator Baucus, who has been working with Senate leaders to formulate another plan, has pointed out the difficulties his committee has had with funding reform without some other type of significant revenue.

One way that raises enough revenue to cover well over the $230 billion figure projected by the CBO is through taxing employer-sponsored health benefits.  The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that taxing employer-sponsored benefits above the value of the Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan (FEHBP), adjusted for inflation, would generate nearly $420 billion over the next 10 years, which would easily fund the difference in the budget gap.  Many other estimates place this number considerably higher.  Furthermore, many experts believe that this policy is a key way to reduce costs, because tax-free benefits encourage more spending on health care.

About 18 months ago, as I worked with a committee that I chaired in Tennessee called the Rolling Hills Group to create a structural model for national healthcare reform, I ran into the same problem that President Obama is facing today.  How do you pay for reform?  After considering several options on how to finance universal insurance, our group kept coming back to the same, single solution – the same one that Senator Baucus is a proponent of, taxing “Cadillac” healthcare benefits.

Under our proposal, we created a basic level of coverage similar to what members of Congress are offered today, known as the FEHBP standard option plan.  This plan is very generous and has been successful in holding down costs compared to other plans.  In order to make sure our plan was budget neutral, we decided we would no longer allow what we consider “Cadillac” coverage benefits to be tax free.  For example, in 2009, under our proposal, any individual policy worth more than $5,871.84 or any family policy worth more than $13,445.64 would be subject to a tax.  Anything less than this amount would be tax free.  For individuals, any amount above the base value of the plan would be considered income.  While for companies, any amount above the base value of the plan would no longer be deductible as a business expense.

We had this idea vetted by the Moran Company, who said that our plan is actuarially sound and budget neutral for the federal government once fully phased in.  Just as a note, in our plan we also derive revenue from Disproportionate Share Payments (DSH) and hold down up front costs by phasing in the reform over a 10 year period.  Disproportionate Share Payments is funding that hospitals receive for treating indigent populations.  Thus, it is reasonable to decrease DSH payments as the uninsured population decreases.

If taxing “Cadillac” coverage raises enough revenue to make healthcare reform budget neutral and encourages less spending on healthcare, why has such an attractive option for reform been pulled off the table amidst the President’s insistence on urgency?  As is usually the case with healthcare reform, the answer may be in the politics.

In recent weeks, several articles have outlined strong opposition by labor unions to the taxation of their healthcare benefits. In the Washington Post, the AFL-CIO stated its opposition to taxing “Cadillac” coverage.  Michael Sullivan, the President of the Sheet Metal Workers Union, has also adamantly stated his opposition to taxing healthcare benefits by saying, “Any bill that taxes health care benefits is dead on arrival.” Understanding these political difficulties, but still seeing the taxing of benefits as a viable way forward, lawmakers have demonstrated that there may be room for compromise.  Senator Baucus himself has hinted that he might consider grandfathering in the taxation of health benefits that are part of a collective-bargaining agreement, which would allow union plans to remain tax-free until new contracts can be negotiated.

Labor unions are not the only ones who have come out against the taxation of “Cadillac” plans, as many large corporations have exhibited significant opposition as well.  However, if healthcare reform is going to happen this year, Congress and President Obama may want to take a harder look at taxing “Cadillac” healthcare benefits as a means of raising revenue and achieving their other healthcare priorities.  I think it is fair to say that if Obama explains to the American people that the Government is only going tax the most lavish of benefits, he might find greater support from the American public for the change in health care that he promised to bring and that this nation so desperately needs.

Clayton McWhorter is a former President and chairman of HCA and current chairman of Clayton Associates and the Rolling Hills Group.  He is the founder of the group SHOUTAmerica, a Nashville based organization that uses social networking and other internet-based technologies to push for change in the healthcare system.

Speculators Bet Reform Won’t Hurt Industry

• 19

By DON JOHNSON

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Speculators seem to be betting that a watered down health insurance reform bill won’t hurt health insurers, hospitals, drug makers or medical device and supply manufacturers.

Stocks for almost all of these health sectors and for exchange trade funds that track health stock indexes turned higher last week. Why?

1. Congress is not going to get health bills through the Senate or the House in face of strong opposition by a minority of Democrats in both houses. This means opponents of the health insurance reform bills will have at least 45 days to convince members of Congress and the public that the bills favored by the president and his hard left supporters in Congress are a bad idea.

2. It is very unlikely that Congress will create a public option health plan, or Government HMO (Fannie Med). The votes aren’t there. This is a bit bullish for health insurers over the short term. White House talk about taxing insurers that offer gold plated health benefit plans makes no sense because few do. If such taxes were enacted, insurers would stop offering or administering such plans, and self-insured employers probably would drop them as long as union contracts didn’t lock them into such plans.

3. If the very liberal Coastal Democrats who lead Congress and most of the five commitees drafting health insurance legislation want to get the support of Democrats from Western, Midwestern and Southern states, they’ll have to up Medicare payments to providers in those states. This is bullish for hospital chains, which operate mostly in the fly-over states.

4. The Congressional Budget Office Saturday threw cold water on the idea of putting MedPac, a panel of self-interested health care and medical experts who would be subject to tremendous political pressure from Congress, in charge of deciding what insurers would cover and how much they would pay for procedures. The panel would save only $2 billion out of trillions over 10 years, the CBO guessed. And it was being generous to the idea that MedPac would save anything. This is good for drug and medical device makers, because it lessens the threat of new price and utilization controls on their products.

5. While www.intrade.com bettors think there’s at least a 46% chance that some kind of health insurance reform will be enacted before year end, the polls are showing Americans are increasingly opposing the bills before Congress. The politicians who created the laws and regulations that make Medicare, Medicaid, SCHIP and state and federal regulations of health insurance markets unworkable failures are promising to fix the health markets. They have less and less credibility every day.

6. Proposals to tax millionaires to pay for covering the uninsured and increasing benefits for others are in trouble, if not dead on arrival.  The economy’s in no shape to be stalled by tax hikes, and there appear to be enough Democrats opposed to the tax to stop it.

7. While the so-called Blue Dog Democrats are stalling health insurance reform for economic and ideological reasons, the Congressional Black Caucus has made it clear that it won’t support a bill that the Blue Dogs will support. Throw in the opposition by anti-abortionists who don’t want the legislation to use taxpayers money to pay for abortions, and you have a pretty complex political problem for President Obama, Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). While the Speaker claimed Sunday that she has the votes to pass health insurance reform, few believe her.

Some Democrats are saying that drafting health insurance reform bills is 70% to 80% done and it won’t take long to get a bill. Other Democrats are saying they want to take the time to write good legislation. The question is, can the Democrats and a few Republicans resolve the last 20% to 30% of the issues that need to be agreed upon to get a bill? It doesn’t look very good for health insurance reform at the moment, but some kind of a bill may pass in the next year or so, if not this year. Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Bush II all enacted major health legislation in their third and later years in office. All three bills have been financial and health care disasters.

Charts for health insurers are here.

Charts for hospital chains are here.

Charts for drug makers are here.

Charts for medical device and supply makers are here.

Charts for long-term care stocks are here.

Chart for health stock exchange traded funds are here.

Click on a chart to see a gallery of charts for a stock or ETF. Disclosure: I own BDX and options on STJ.

Don Johnson blogs at The Business Word Inc. Between 1976 and 1986 he was editor of Modern Healthcare magazine. As its top editor, Don helped build Modern Healthcare, a Crain Communications Inc. publication, into the hospital industry’s leading business magazine and one of the top magazines in the country.

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HELP! IS THE CBO GETTING SUCKERED?

• 8

By ROGER COLLIER

In a comment on my previous post on
the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions reform bill, tcoyote
explained some of the political thinking behind what seem like totally
spurious cost projections. While I can readily accept tcoyote’s explanation
of the pols’ efforts to ignore reality, I’m still politically innocent
enough to want to know what the HELP bill might really cost. So I spent
some time looking at the Congressional Budget Office report on the bill. 

Here are a few things I noticed: 

  1. The “ten-year projection”
    starts in 2010, although the bill does not require insurance exchanges
    to be implemented until 2014. The result is that the projection includes
    only six years of reform (plus a lengthy transition period), NOT ten
    years.
  1.  The CBO projections
    include a $58 billion “credit” for the impact of the HELP bill’s
    proposed new long-term care program (the so-called CLASS Act). However,
    the “credit” accounts for the difference between premiums and benefits
    over the 2010-2019 period on a cash basis only. If conventional accrual
    accounting were used, CLASS would show a net cost for the period.

Continue reading…

HELP! This is Unbelievable

• 36

By ROGER COLLIER

Key members of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee announced on Thursday what they claimed were dramatically improved cost and coverage estimates for the latest version of their health care reform bill.

Headed by Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd, HELP members (in a Muzak-marred conference call with reporters) stated that the revised bill would cost only $611 billion over ten years, a figure apparently computed by the CBO, and that with a further expansion of Medicaid would provide coverage for 97 percent of Americans.

Key features of the bill provided during the conference call included a public plan option, subsidies for lower-income individuals buying insurance through an exchange mechanism, and a play-or-pay employer mandate.

Sounds good? We’ll have to wait for details, but two big problems are already apparent.

The first BIG problem is that the ten-year cost estimate of $611 billion excludes the cost of Medicaid expansion. With Senator Dodd’s admission that the HELP Committee expects this to provide coverage for 7 percent of Americans (the difference between the 97 percent coverage with Medicaid expansion and 90 percent without it), the total cost balloons to far more than a trillion dollars. A rough calculation of Medicaid costs for 20 million Americans at present funding levels gives a total of $80 billion a year – or $800 billion just for Medicaid expansion, presumably to be shared with state governments already on the verge of bankruptcy.

Even assuming that Senator Dodd misspoke, and the at he intended his percentages to apply only to under-65 Americans, the ten-year estimate for Medicaid expansion is still over $700 billion—with no provision for medical inflation. And, given the financial condition of most states, most of this cost would have to be borne by the federal government.

The second BIG problem is the absurdly modest levy—$750 for businesses with more than 25 workers and $375 for businesses with fewer than 25—to be imposed on employers not providing employee coverage. It’s hard to believe, in the middle of a deepening recession, that many employers will not choose to pay the $375 or $750 levy rather than buy insurance at $3,000 or more (just for the employee, with no family coverage), with additional government subsidies needed to bridge the funding gap.

The CBO has apparently assumed in its estimates that there will not be a big change in the extent of employer-sponsored coverage over the ten-year period, but this seems unrealistic. While we have not seen a “rush to the exits” in Massachusetts so far, the longer-term experience of Hawaii may be more meaningful. Immediately after Hawaii passed its mandated coverage law, the uninsured rate was below 5 percent, but as a series of recessions hit Hawaii’s economy, the rate increased to 8 percent in 1998, and close to 10 percent today. Only the truly naïve can believe that numerous US employers won’t either choose the far cheaper levy option or—as in Hawaii—find other ways of ducking the employer mandate.

Roger Collier was formerly CEO of a national health care consulting firm. His experience includes the design and implementation of innovative health care programs for HMOs, health insurers, and state and federal agencies.  He is editor of Health Care REFORM UPDATE [reformupdate.blogspot.com].

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