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British Petroleum’s Wellness Program is Spewing Invalidity

A critical observation in Cracking Health Costs is you need not “challenge the data” to invalidate claims that wellness saves money.  Instead, you can simply read the data as presented.  You’ll find it usually invalidates itself.

Nowhere is that more true than in a study published this month by Mercer, Staywell and British Petroleum (“BP America”) in the Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (JOEM).   As we’ll demonstrate, the results completely contradict Staywell’s own statements, and are also mathematically impossible.  Indeed, Mercer was a wise partner choice by BP America because their validations are often unconstrained by the limits of possibility.   For instance, they validated massive savings both for infants in a North Carolina Medicaid program that did not enroll infants, and for a Georgia Medicaid disease management program that did not manage diseases, at least according to the FBI.

Along those lines, let’s see what happens when one compares the JOEM conclusion — that the Staywell wellness program for BP America achieved almost $20,000,000 in savings on 20,343 BP participants after only two short years – to the limits of possibility.

It turns out this overall savings claim of $1,000/person would require completely wiping out wellness-sensitive medical events (heart attacks, diabetes events etc.) not just on those 20,000+ people, but also on perhaps 40,000 of their closest friends.  The authors elected not to disclose the change in wellness-sensitive medical events across the entire eligible population, perhaps because they were embarrassed by the size of the decline, if indeed those events declined at all.

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