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Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up

In my last post, I discussed the role of physicians in patient safety in the US and UK. Today, I’m going widen the lens to consider how the culture and structure of the two healthcare systems have influenced their safety efforts. What I’ve discovered since arriving in London in June has surprised me, and helped me understand what has and hasn’t worked in America.

Before I arrived here, I assumed that the UK had a major advantage when it came to improving patient safety and quality. After all, a single-payer system means less chaos and fragmentation—one payer, one regulator; no muss, no fuss. But this can be more curse than blessing, because it creates a tendency to favor top-down solutions that—as we keep learning in patient safety—simply don’t work very well.

To understand why, let’s start with a short riff on complexity, one of the hottest topics in healthcare policy.

Complexity R Us

Complexity theory is the branch of management thinking that holds that large organizations don’t operate like predictable and static machines, in which Inputs A and B predictably lead to Result C. Rather, organizations operate as “complex adaptive systems,” with unpredictability and non-linearity the rule, not the exception. It’s more Italy (without the wild parties) than Switzerland.

Complexity theory divides decisions and problems into three general categories: simple, complicated, and complex. Simple problems are ones in which the inputs and outputs are known; they can be managed by following a recipe or a set of rules. Baking a cake is a simple problem; so is choosing the right antibiotics to treat pneumonia. Complicated problems involve substantial uncertainties: the solutions may not be known, but they are potentially knowable.  An example is designing a rocket ship to fly to the moon—if you were working for NASA in 1962 and heard President Kennedy declare a moon landing as a national goal, you probably believed it was not going to be easy but, with enough brainpower and resources, it could be achieved. Finally, complex problems are often likened to raising a child. While we may have a general sense of what works, the actual formula for success is, alas, unknowable (if you’re not a parent, trust me on this).

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The Key to Improving Our Health? Look Beyond Health Care.

The United States spent $2.5 trillion on health care in 2009, more per capita than any other nation. Yet our country is ranked 32nd in the world in life expectancy, and rates of conditions such as diabetes and obesity have increased dramatically in recent years.

If we hope to address spiraling medical costs and improve the health of all Americans, we need to begin focusing on the policies — in fields such as transportation, energy, education and agriculture — that shape the world outside the doctor’s office.

But how? Policymakers are already juggling shrinking budgets, crumbling infrastructure and competing priorities. A recently released report from the National Research Council offers a solution. The study, “A Framework and Guidance for Health Impact Assessment,” points out that good health is determined by more than money spent on the health care system. An NRC committee on health impact assessments, of which I am a member, took an in-depth look at why they are needed.

Similar to the way a Congressional Budget Office score predicts the fiscal impact of a proposed policy, an HIA identifies the likely effect on health of a decision in another field, such as building a major roadway, revitalizing a neighborhood or developing energy or agricultural policy. HIAs can help decision-makers identify unintended risks, reduce unnecessary costs and leverage opportunities to improve the health of their communities.

As a doctor, I’ve often cared for diabetics who struggle to follow exercise recommendations because there’s nowhere nearby that’s safe to exercise. I’ve seen patients with frequent asthma attacks exacerbated by living in housing with mold and poor ventilation. I’ve given diet advice to parents of overweight children, only to find that they live in a neighborhood with no grocery store for miles and eat school lunches that should but often don’t meet current nutrition guidance.Continue reading…

Social Media’s Evolving Role in Health Care

On August 23, 2011, some people in New York knew an earthquake was coming before it happened.  They weren’t psychic (as far as I know), but digital tweets from their friends in Washington, DC arrived 30 seconds before any seismic rumbles began (1, 2).  Afterwards, the U.S. Geological Survey asked people to “tweet if you felt it.” Over 122,000 people responded, providing a detailed map of activity within hours (3).  Though phones were dead near the epicenter of the quake, texts kept moving.

Welcome to SOLOMO (SOcial, LOcal, MObile) communication, connecting us instantly through handheld devices.  News now literally travels at the speed of light, with words strapped to the backs of zippy electrons. Emergency preparedness and disaster response teams are taking note, using social media to both get and spread the word.  The Red Cross has dedicated teams who monitor Facebook and Twitter (4).

While the speed of social–media communication is impressive, its volume is daunting and its content overwhelmingly messy.  Besides 300 billion emails (5), each day across the globe we send 200 million tweets(6); search the Web more than four billion times(7); and add 5,000 new blog sites to the 170 million that already exist (8). Ten million people, including the president, belong to FourSquare (9), which delivers personalized offers and local news interactively based on where you are (GPS) and what is nearby.  In the 3.5 hours we spend each day “connected” (10) we buy, sell, chat, gossip, work, cheer, complain, and advise.  We plan everything from dinner parties to Mideast revolutions, we ask about everything from movie ratings to interplanetary travel, and we monitor progress of local teams, hurricanes, and political races.

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Too Much Responsibility/Not Enough

The Health Leadership Council (HLC), a coalition of CEOs from many of the leading health care companies, has created a list of Medicare reform recommendations for the Super Committee tasked with finding at least $1.2 trillion in budget savings.

As we begin the national debate over what to do about Medicare’s unsustainable costs, I will suggest that the HLC proposal gives us one, of what will have to be many, outlines for discussion.

Their recommendations include:

  • Creating a new Medicare Exchange, beginning in 2018, where beneficiaries would have the choice of private Medicare plans as well as the traditional Medicare plan. The HLC proposal would be a defined contribution program much like the Republican Ryan plan but would differ from Paul Ryan’s in a couple of key ways. First, in the HLC proposal traditional Medicare would continue to be one of the options. Second, the annual increase in the beneficiary support premium would be more generous—the HLC is proposing an annual premium support increase equal to GDP plus 1%.
  • Gradually increasing the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67—starting in 2014.
  • Reforming Medicare’s cost sharing structure by increasing deductibles and co-pays as well as requiring high-income beneficiaries to pay the full cost of Medicare Part B.
  • Implementing medical liability reform including a cap on non-economic damages, a one-year statute of limitations, and a “fair share” provision that would limit damages commensurate with responsibility for the injury.

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Sharing Data on Social Media


People use Facebook, Twitter, or other social media sites as channels for self-expression. But whether updating or uploading, people are telling their social stories with only two tools: text and images.

But what if social media wasn’t confined to words and pictures, but instead, allowed users to uploaded graphs or tables? In other words, could data, pure data, become a token in our social currency?

That’s the thought contributed during a panel session at the Health 2.0 Conference in San Francisco byGary Wolf, contributing editor at Wired, and an organizer of Quantified Self, a community whose users meticulously track certain aspects of their lives, some down to infinitesimal levels, such as how they spend every minute of the day (no joke).

Wolf’s comment followed a presentation by Stead Burwell, the CEO of Alliance Health Networks, who demoed Diabetic Connect an information and community site for patients battling diabetes. Alliance spent a great deal of time (read: money) on creating user profiles that would allow visitors of the site to connect with their peers, patients who share similar experiences. But that connection, they found, was key. As Burwell said in his presentation, users not only like to receive badges and virtual rewards, they like to hand them out as well.

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The Challenge of ICD10 Adoption

On October 1, 2013, the entire US healthcare system will shift from ICD9 to ICD10.   It will be one of the largest, most expensive and riskiest transitions that healthcare CIOs will experience in their careers, affecting every clinical and financial system.

It’s a kind of Y2k for healthcare.

Most large provider and payer organizations, have a ICD10 project budget of $50-100 million, which is interesting because the ICD10 final rule estimated the cost as .03% of revenue.  For BIDMC, that would be about $450,000.   Our project budget estimates are about ten times that.

CMS and HHS have significant reasons for wanting to move forward with ICD10 including

1) easier detection of fraud and abuse given the granularity of ICD10 i.e. having 3 comminuted distal radius fractures of your right arm within 3 weeks would be unlikely
2) more detailed quality reporting
3) administrative data will contain more clinical detail enabling more refined reimbursement

Large healthcare organizations have already been working hard on ICD10, so they have sunk costs and a fixed run rate for their project management office.   At this point, any extension of the deadline would cost them more.

Most small to medium healthcare organizations are desperate. They are consumed with meaningful use, 5010, e-prescribing, healthcare reform, and compliance.   They have no bandwidth or resources to execute a massive ICD10 project over the next 2 years.

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The Power in What We Most Fear

There is fire in the valley and smoke in the mountains. A plague is on  the land and danger is afoot. That may be — maybe — the good news.

Health care is more unstable than it has been at any time in living  memory. That’s pretty scary, but that instability may turn out to be its most important asset in this moment, as the whole industry becomes open  to profound change.

As long as I can remember, thoughtful analysts have been saying, “We need to do this differently. This is not working.” In this century, the voices became louder and more insistent, and they spread. But health  care has been very slow to evolve in any fundamental way. Even health care reform, when it came through extraordinary political pain and  maneuver, was more a way to bolster business as usual, a way to shore up revenue streams and patch holes in the fee-for-service business model, than it was any fundamental restructuring.

Now the ground under our feet is liquefying.

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Educating the Health 2.0 Workforce

As any new field of human activity evolves into something important, its original participants are drawn to it from a range of other fields and bring to it a wide range of backgrounds and experiences. For example, the original computer scientists were not schooled in computer science. The field didn’t exist when they were in school. The first generation of computer scientists were mathematicians, engineers, philosophers, among other things, who came together around shared interests in a set of challenging and important problems.

As computer science matured and proved its worth, however, something inevitable happened. Programs specifically to educate the next generation of computer scientists began to develop, and a range of questions arose about how best prepare them—how to combine math, engineering, philosophy into a new interdisciplinary program of studies.

Exploration of how to train its next generation gives shape to a new field, stimulates further growth and innovation, and ensures that that the next generation will be large enough to support a thriving enterprise. So it is with Health 2.0—a new field that has attracted an eclectic group of energetic pioneers and is beginning to mature. It’s time to think about the next generation.Continue reading…

Pre-Conferences kick off Health 2.0

We were coding up a storm yesterday (Saturday) at the Health 2.0 Developer Challenge Code-a-thon and that goes on today–you can even stop by the PariSoma Loft to see the live judging at 3pm — with $13,000 in prizes on the line.

But the main act is starting up TODAY with 4 fabulous pre-conferences.  Don’t forget these are FREE to anyone registered to attend the main conference and to doctors, patients and employers as appropriate for their sessions. There’s also an Innovation Exchange with the Beacon Communities which has some public availability.

The Pre-Conferences: Patients 2.0 brings together more than 150 patient activists. Doctors 2.0 has several leading physicians on stage and in the audience, and more than 15 demos and active panel discussions. Employers 2.0 has leading employers again on stage and in the audience (Wanna meet Facebook’s head of benefits? -scan the badges!) and more demos than you can shake a stick at–as long as some cool case studies from Pfizer on wellness and Cisco on worksite clinics.Continue reading…

DC to VC: Health 2.0 Companies Pitch!

Health Innovation Week continues in San Francisco, but, this past Thursday, Health 2.0 zipped down to the Microsoft campus in Mountain View for “DC to VC” – a fabulously organized event by Rebecca Lynn & Ching Wu of Morgenthaler Ventures and MC’ed by our very own Matthew Holt. Despite the prominent names of the organizers, the stars of this show were really the eleven HIT startups from across the US selected from a list more than 125 companies who had pitched for a spot on the stage.

Up first were six companies in the Seed stage category. Each was under two years old and has raised less than $500K so far. They were followed by slightly older, slightly more experienced startups in the Series A category. These companies were under three years old and have received less than $1.5 million in funding.Continue reading…

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