The NY Times has an article on the shocking fact that increasing health care costs actually cost actual money. Apparently it costs businesses so much in additional health care costs to hire new (especially older) workers that they are hiring fewer than they would if health care costs were lower. And of course instead they’re hiring contract workers and sending jobs overseas.

Well it’s good to find out that the laws of economics are reported in the paper, so they must be true. In this case they are. Real wages in this country have barely budged upwards in the past 30 years. So what has gone up and been responsible for our increase in “wealth” over that time?

a) Working hours. Not only has the work year increased by about 10% over that time, but more importantly millions of women have entered the labor force and most families now need two incomes to keep going.

b) Productivity and technology: Which now means that you can buy a throwaway digital cameraphone that somehow you managed to get by without in 1973. It also means that a whole stack of stuff costs less (consumer goods) meaning that overall those real wages buy slightly more than they did, even though some things like education, housing and healthcare cost more.

c) Profits. Corporate profits have gone up faster than wages (especially in the last few years). The Marxists amongst us would note that this means that the share going to capital is rising faster than the share going to labor, particularly as stock ownership is still dramatically concentrated in the upper income groups.

d) Health care costs. Years ago I had a chart showing that the level of real wages was flat over 20 years while the increase in the healthcare cost part of total compensation went up over 200%. For a brief while in the mid-late 1990s the health care part of that equation settled down and real wages even went up a little. But now we are back in the old pattern. I don’t have the chart anymore, but if someone clamors hard enough I’ll figure out the numbers. Suffice it for now to say that health care costs are really eating into total compensation, and as HSC showed the other day, this is leading directly to fewer people getting health benefits at work.

So what to do about it? Kerry seems to care about the fact that health care costs are now getting through to consumers. Given that he barely mentioned this issue in years in the Senate, and now as the NYTimes says he’s raising it on every porch in middle America, methinks that his pollsters have told him that swing voters are feeling the pain. Bush doesn’t care and has no answers other than laughably and disingneuously saying that malpractice reform will solve the health care cost explosion, and promoting HSAs. Kerry’s solution is to basically make the government the insurer of last resort for catastrophic cases and force a pay-or-play solution on employers. Even if he wins (which I think now looks likely) and the Democrats retake the Senate (unlikely) the plan has little more than zero chance of becoming law this time around. It will however linger for the next time we have this serious national debate, which in my guess will be in the 2008-2012 time period.

Meanwhile, Karen Davis, radical commie and President of the Commonwealth Fund has made available the entire issue of Health Services Research that focused on CDHPs. THCB readers may remember that it had some surprising articles in it, not the least of which was health plan Humana’s research on its own internal CDHP which showed that it cost the employer (itself!) more than keeping its members in its standard plan. Davis has an excellent discussion of the research behind what the Canadians call user-fees (long version – short version) in which she points out that the RAND experiment back 25 years ago showed that increasing the actual cost of going to the doctor at point of service reduced services delivered to those patients. Of course you can read that two ways depending on whether or not you believe people use too few medical services or too many. But the key point that Davis makes is that the best way to improve quality (i.e. get the correct amount of services to patients) is to increase incentives to providers to do the right thing. She’s arguing for pay-for-performance, better use of IT, public reporting of cost and quality data, national EBM standards and a whole lot more spent on researching these issues at AHQR. And of course while she’s preaching to the choir as far as I’m concerned, it’s interesting to note that a version of these things appears in the Kerry plan too.