I’ve noticed some people are placing bets down on AZ stock but I’ve also seen that for the past several weeks, AZ has been buying 200,000-300,000 shares of its own stock every day.  Looks to me as if McKillop and his CFO have been propping themselves up on the ropes with their left hand while trying to parry the jabs with their right.

In any case I don’t think that some investor activity is indicative of how Crestor and Exanta will perform competitively.  My own hunch is that if (a major "if") no ADR reports surface of rhabdo for Crestor and liver toxicity for Exanta, both products will eventually do well.  I define "well" for these products in more modest terms, however, something closer to $1b-$1.5B rather than $3B for Exanta and $2.5B for Crestor.

I honestly feel that these Big Pharma companies do substantial harm to themselves by over-inflating the market prospects for their new drugs.  A couple of years ago I closely assessed for clients the development progress of Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Vanlev.  They touted that thing as likely to revolutionize hypertension care and as a $5B drug.  Merck similarly blared the sirens for its Substance P antagonist and its PPAR, both of which they just abandoned.  In terms of marketing strategy this early hyping makes little sense.  The companies do it mainly because it gives a short term boost to the stock and the compensation of senior managers is closely tied to stock appreciation.  By the time reality hits, when the stock price tumbles and ordinary blokes lose their jobs, these boardroom Tony Sopranos are off looting some other venture.