
By JEREMY SHANE
What’s behind the coming health care reckoning? Most industry leaders have their preferred list of culprits: not us! Left-leaning critics blame large insurers, drug companies, and private equity firms. Take the profit and self-dealing out of health care. Those on the right blame excessive regulation, poorly-designed insurance markets, or limits on individuals’ ability to pick their own coverage. Debates yo-yo between these views in a political stalemate. While the views are diametrically opposed on solutions, they share a belief that financial issues are the root cause of systemic dysfunction. That manipulating how clinicians are paid or insurance is structured can improve health outcomes.
A half century into efforts to fix health care, it is clear that both views are wrong. Americans’ healthspans are shrinking while costs spiral upwards thanks to chronic disease. Progressively worsening illness throughout adulthood eventually explodes in multimorbidity, driving cancer and dementia, and protracted hospitalizations. Clinicians know this, with their well-worn chorus of “if only” laments. If only we could reward prevention instead of treatment. If only we intervened earlier before advanced pathology takes hold. If only clinical care was not fragmented. If only people had a direct stake in their longer-term health. Yet the debate in Washington DC, even shaken up by the MAHA movement’s focus on chronic issues, regresses into an interminable blame game, and conflicting ideas about how Congress or CMS could end the madness.
It is time to break the cycle and say clearly what we know to be scientific fact. It’s impossible to use a system built to solve acute issues to also solve multi-decade, highly variable disease threats. Yet this presumption, that one system can do it all, addressing everything from colds to car crashes to cardiovascular issues to cancer, is so deeply ingrained in our thinking as to escape scrutiny.
It is folly to continue. We need two systems, not one — the first for routine, emergency, and elective treatments and the second to confront long-term, complex challenges. Absent this change it will take far longer than it should, and cost far more, to decipher chronic issues or create economic arrangements that can bring forward the ultimate value of preventing disease.
Resetting Assumptions
It’s illuminating to focus on the scientific drivers of disease rather than the financial after effects. It becomes clear why Medicare Advantage is imploding, and no, it’s not because CMS changed payment rates. Since 2000, the percent of Americans entering Medicare with multimorbidity has jumped by two-thirds, from a quarter of new entrants to over 40%. Software may be eating the world but multimorbidity is eating Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance, and with it, most Americans’ healthspans.
Most Americans now live a decade more than their grandparents, only to spend all the additional years, and then some, in poorer health.
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